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Thursday, 11 August 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 On July 22nd, Ukraine signed a deal with Russia to release 22mn tons of grain from Ukraine’s 3 major ports (Yuzhny, Chornomorsk, Odesa). Such an agreement is anticipated to soften grain prices as an immediate response to the increase in global supplies. But it is also anticipated to offer relief to grain mills, in an effort to ensure limited rotting of the current harvest and rapidly free up silos for the next season’s harvest. However, after the deal, a myriad of challenges are left to resolve before exports can ramp up, therefore nothing ensures that exports will pick up in the near term.
On August 1st, the first ship loaded with 26,000 tons of corn departed from Ukraine for Lebanon, marking a resume of Ukraine grain exports. Since then, and at the time of writing, a total of 12 vessels have departed from Ukrainian ports carrying 374,800 tons of agriculture-related merchandise, which is still a fraction of the 22mn tonnes of trapped grain in the country. Ukraine anticipates the number of vessels to pick up grains will be increased to reach full capacity within the following weeks. Given the exports continue successfully, they could increase as much as 3mn tons/month in 4-6 weeks.
In order to ship a total of 22mn tonnes of grains, it is estimated that approx. 371 loadings in 40,000-69,000dwt size vessels will be needed. The vessels will cover routes from the Black Sea to North Africa, the Middle East, and potentially Europe, while their voyages are expected to last approx. 7 days. At the moment most inquiries are Handy-based due to the shallow draft of ports in the Black Sea area and the short distance that needs to be covered. Given the limited duration of the agreement, it is expected that most inquiries will be for short-period time-charters for these particular routes. If the agreement is extended and more shipments will head to Asia, primarily S. Korea and China, there will be increased demand for period charters and for bigger vessels.
Congestion is expected to increase in Ukrainian ports as they have been un-operational and un-manned since the beginning of the war and their infrastructures might have been damaged. However, at the moment the discharge rate is relatively rapid given the small number of vessels in the area. Vessels that will bear increased voyage risk will require insurance premiums resulting in higher voyage expenses. Shipowners’ biggest impediment is to secure insurance for their vessels and cargoes and to find crew to sail their ships. On the other hand, this means that freights will move upwards in order to compensate for the extra risk.
As per the latest update of Ukraine’s Ministry of Agriculture on July 31st, the country’s wheat exports have been down -53.2% y-o-y, while the market outlook for next year’s wheat crop remains bearish. Another downside factor is the quality of the grains that have been loaded in vessels for months under increased humidity and inadequate ventilation. There is a high risk that cargoes that have not been freshly loaded will be rejected by the importers if they do not meet specific requirements.
Under the current circumstances, there are several challenges lying ahead that create doubts on whether the exports could fully or at least partially recover. Given that the situation worsens around the Black Sea area and the materialized deal will be undermined, a further downside for grain trade is more likely within 2H2022. On the contrary, if the operation continues relatively smoothly, the world grain trade could see relief within 2H2022 as a result of an increase in tonne-days demand, while Ukraine could receive up to $1bn/month from its grain exports in order to fund its sowing plans.
By Chara Georgousi
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Wednesday, 03 November 21
CHINA TO LAUNCH NEW DATA MONITORING SYSTEM, TARGETING COAL MARKET SPECULATION, HOARDING - GLOBAL TIMES
China’s top economic planner announced on Sunday a new data system for supervising the implementation of medium- and long-term contracts of c ...
Wednesday, 03 November 21
CHINA’S STATE PLANNER SAYS COAL SUPPLY IMPROVING, PRICES STABILISING - REUTERS
China’s coal supply situation has seen significant improvement with joint efforts from coal producers, logistics and downstream users, while ...
Wednesday, 03 November 21
HIGHER COKING COAL PRICES TO PARE PROFITABILITY OF STEELMAKERS IN SECOND HALF OF FY22 - CRISIL RATINGS
The operating margin of primary steelmakers will reduce by a third to 24-26% in the second half of this fiscal versus the first half as input cost ...
Wednesday, 03 November 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
November is here and soon the all time seasonal favorite “all I want or Christmas is you” by Mariah Carey will be played in radio stati ...
Monday, 01 November 21
COAL PRICES HAVE FURTHER ROOM TO DROP: TOP ECONOMIC PLANNER - GLOBAL TIMES
China’s top economic planner said coal prices have further room to drop on Friday, as the most traded coal futures dropped to below 1,000 yua ...
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- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Planning Commission, India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- PTC India Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
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