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Thursday, 11 August 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 On July 22nd, Ukraine signed a deal with Russia to release 22mn tons of grain from Ukraine’s 3 major ports (Yuzhny, Chornomorsk, Odesa). Such an agreement is anticipated to soften grain prices as an immediate response to the increase in global supplies. But it is also anticipated to offer relief to grain mills, in an effort to ensure limited rotting of the current harvest and rapidly free up silos for the next season’s harvest. However, after the deal, a myriad of challenges are left to resolve before exports can ramp up, therefore nothing ensures that exports will pick up in the near term.
On August 1st, the first ship loaded with 26,000 tons of corn departed from Ukraine for Lebanon, marking a resume of Ukraine grain exports. Since then, and at the time of writing, a total of 12 vessels have departed from Ukrainian ports carrying 374,800 tons of agriculture-related merchandise, which is still a fraction of the 22mn tonnes of trapped grain in the country. Ukraine anticipates the number of vessels to pick up grains will be increased to reach full capacity within the following weeks. Given the exports continue successfully, they could increase as much as 3mn tons/month in 4-6 weeks.
In order to ship a total of 22mn tonnes of grains, it is estimated that approx. 371 loadings in 40,000-69,000dwt size vessels will be needed. The vessels will cover routes from the Black Sea to North Africa, the Middle East, and potentially Europe, while their voyages are expected to last approx. 7 days. At the moment most inquiries are Handy-based due to the shallow draft of ports in the Black Sea area and the short distance that needs to be covered. Given the limited duration of the agreement, it is expected that most inquiries will be for short-period time-charters for these particular routes. If the agreement is extended and more shipments will head to Asia, primarily S. Korea and China, there will be increased demand for period charters and for bigger vessels.
Congestion is expected to increase in Ukrainian ports as they have been un-operational and un-manned since the beginning of the war and their infrastructures might have been damaged. However, at the moment the discharge rate is relatively rapid given the small number of vessels in the area. Vessels that will bear increased voyage risk will require insurance premiums resulting in higher voyage expenses. Shipowners’ biggest impediment is to secure insurance for their vessels and cargoes and to find crew to sail their ships. On the other hand, this means that freights will move upwards in order to compensate for the extra risk.
As per the latest update of Ukraine’s Ministry of Agriculture on July 31st, the country’s wheat exports have been down -53.2% y-o-y, while the market outlook for next year’s wheat crop remains bearish. Another downside factor is the quality of the grains that have been loaded in vessels for months under increased humidity and inadequate ventilation. There is a high risk that cargoes that have not been freshly loaded will be rejected by the importers if they do not meet specific requirements.
Under the current circumstances, there are several challenges lying ahead that create doubts on whether the exports could fully or at least partially recover. Given that the situation worsens around the Black Sea area and the materialized deal will be undermined, a further downside for grain trade is more likely within 2H2022. On the contrary, if the operation continues relatively smoothly, the world grain trade could see relief within 2H2022 as a result of an increase in tonne-days demand, while Ukraine could receive up to $1bn/month from its grain exports in order to fund its sowing plans.
By Chara Georgousi
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Tuesday, 26 October 21
ENERGY CRISIS SHOWS COAL IS AN EXPENSIVE AND UNRELIABLE SOURCE OF ELECTRICITY GENERATION - IEEFA
Any knee-jerk reaction that urges more investment in coal completely misses the point
India is teetering on the brink of joining a growing glo ...
Tuesday, 26 October 21
CHINA TO INVESTIGATE ENERGY INDEX PROVIDERS IN BID TO TAME COAL PRICES - REUTERS
China said on Monday it will investigate energy price index providers as it urged coal industry participants to “strictly” meet contrac ...
Tuesday, 26 October 21
THERE IS PLENTY OF COAL AND GAS IN THE WORLD BUT A VOLATILE MARKET IS NOBODY'S FRIEND - IEEFA
Gas will be winding its way out of the energy system
Gas prices are continuing to surge around the world. The cost of gas is at unpr ...
Tuesday, 26 October 21
AUSTRALIA EXPORTED 51.6 MLN TONNES OF COAL TO INDIA IN FIRST 10 MONTHS, 19% OF ALL AUSTRALIAN COAL EXPORTS; CHINA WAS THE DESTINATION FOR JUST 0.7% - BANCHERO COSTA
2020 proved to be a truly terrible year for global seaborne coal trade. In 2021 things started pretty badly, but we are seeing increasing signs of ...
Monday, 25 October 21
A QUESTION OF POSSESSION - THE BALTIC EXCHANGE
Possession and tangibility are closely related concepts long established under English law. Yet a change to these concepts is around the corner. Th ...
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- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- PTC India Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- The University of Queensland
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
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