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Thursday, 11 August 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 On July 22nd, Ukraine signed a deal with Russia to release 22mn tons of grain from Ukraine’s 3 major ports (Yuzhny, Chornomorsk, Odesa). Such an agreement is anticipated to soften grain prices as an immediate response to the increase in global supplies. But it is also anticipated to offer relief to grain mills, in an effort to ensure limited rotting of the current harvest and rapidly free up silos for the next season’s harvest. However, after the deal, a myriad of challenges are left to resolve before exports can ramp up, therefore nothing ensures that exports will pick up in the near term.
On August 1st, the first ship loaded with 26,000 tons of corn departed from Ukraine for Lebanon, marking a resume of Ukraine grain exports. Since then, and at the time of writing, a total of 12 vessels have departed from Ukrainian ports carrying 374,800 tons of agriculture-related merchandise, which is still a fraction of the 22mn tonnes of trapped grain in the country. Ukraine anticipates the number of vessels to pick up grains will be increased to reach full capacity within the following weeks. Given the exports continue successfully, they could increase as much as 3mn tons/month in 4-6 weeks.
In order to ship a total of 22mn tonnes of grains, it is estimated that approx. 371 loadings in 40,000-69,000dwt size vessels will be needed. The vessels will cover routes from the Black Sea to North Africa, the Middle East, and potentially Europe, while their voyages are expected to last approx. 7 days. At the moment most inquiries are Handy-based due to the shallow draft of ports in the Black Sea area and the short distance that needs to be covered. Given the limited duration of the agreement, it is expected that most inquiries will be for short-period time-charters for these particular routes. If the agreement is extended and more shipments will head to Asia, primarily S. Korea and China, there will be increased demand for period charters and for bigger vessels.
Congestion is expected to increase in Ukrainian ports as they have been un-operational and un-manned since the beginning of the war and their infrastructures might have been damaged. However, at the moment the discharge rate is relatively rapid given the small number of vessels in the area. Vessels that will bear increased voyage risk will require insurance premiums resulting in higher voyage expenses. Shipowners’ biggest impediment is to secure insurance for their vessels and cargoes and to find crew to sail their ships. On the other hand, this means that freights will move upwards in order to compensate for the extra risk.
As per the latest update of Ukraine’s Ministry of Agriculture on July 31st, the country’s wheat exports have been down -53.2% y-o-y, while the market outlook for next year’s wheat crop remains bearish. Another downside factor is the quality of the grains that have been loaded in vessels for months under increased humidity and inadequate ventilation. There is a high risk that cargoes that have not been freshly loaded will be rejected by the importers if they do not meet specific requirements.
Under the current circumstances, there are several challenges lying ahead that create doubts on whether the exports could fully or at least partially recover. Given that the situation worsens around the Black Sea area and the materialized deal will be undermined, a further downside for grain trade is more likely within 2H2022. On the contrary, if the operation continues relatively smoothly, the world grain trade could see relief within 2H2022 as a result of an increase in tonne-days demand, while Ukraine could receive up to $1bn/month from its grain exports in order to fund its sowing plans.
By Chara Georgousi
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Tuesday, 09 November 21
ASIA-PACIFIC IS HOME TO SOME OF THE WORLD'S LARGEST CARBON-EMITTERS - 2 CHARTS SHOW ITS RELIANCE ON COAL - CNBC
Asia-Pacific is home to some of the world’s largest carbon emitters — and experts say much of global efforts to fight climate change de ...
Tuesday, 09 November 21
CHINA DAILY COAL OUTPUT HITS MULTI-YEAR PEAK, PRICES EXPECTED TO FALL - REUTERS
China’s daily coal output hit 11.93 million tonnes last week, a multi-year high as more capacity returned to operation, the state planner sai ...
Thursday, 04 November 21
CHINA'S COAL MARKET SEES SIGNIFICANT IMPROVEMENTS: NDRC - GLOBAL TIMES
China’s top economic planner has declared initial success in its efforts to ensure coal supply and stabilize prices, saying that daily coal o ...
Thursday, 04 November 21
CHINA THERMAL COAL PRICES RISE AFTER FALLING FOR 10 DAYS - REUTERS
China thermal coal futures rebounded on Wednesday after falling for 10 days on an expected jump in fuel demand to meet heating needs amid forecasts ...
Thursday, 04 November 21
FASTER DECARBONISATION: BACK TO BASICS FOR THE MINING INDUSTRY? - WOOD MACKENZIE
To the uninitiated, rugby is a technical and complicated game. As young schoolboys it was all a wee bit confusing and we invariably ended up on the ...
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- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Australian Coal Association
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Planning Commission, India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- White Energy Company Limited
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
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