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Thursday, 11 August 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 On July 22nd, Ukraine signed a deal with Russia to release 22mn tons of grain from Ukraine’s 3 major ports (Yuzhny, Chornomorsk, Odesa). Such an agreement is anticipated to soften grain prices as an immediate response to the increase in global supplies. But it is also anticipated to offer relief to grain mills, in an effort to ensure limited rotting of the current harvest and rapidly free up silos for the next season’s harvest. However, after the deal, a myriad of challenges are left to resolve before exports can ramp up, therefore nothing ensures that exports will pick up in the near term.
On August 1st, the first ship loaded with 26,000 tons of corn departed from Ukraine for Lebanon, marking a resume of Ukraine grain exports. Since then, and at the time of writing, a total of 12 vessels have departed from Ukrainian ports carrying 374,800 tons of agriculture-related merchandise, which is still a fraction of the 22mn tonnes of trapped grain in the country. Ukraine anticipates the number of vessels to pick up grains will be increased to reach full capacity within the following weeks. Given the exports continue successfully, they could increase as much as 3mn tons/month in 4-6 weeks.
In order to ship a total of 22mn tonnes of grains, it is estimated that approx. 371 loadings in 40,000-69,000dwt size vessels will be needed. The vessels will cover routes from the Black Sea to North Africa, the Middle East, and potentially Europe, while their voyages are expected to last approx. 7 days. At the moment most inquiries are Handy-based due to the shallow draft of ports in the Black Sea area and the short distance that needs to be covered. Given the limited duration of the agreement, it is expected that most inquiries will be for short-period time-charters for these particular routes. If the agreement is extended and more shipments will head to Asia, primarily S. Korea and China, there will be increased demand for period charters and for bigger vessels.
Congestion is expected to increase in Ukrainian ports as they have been un-operational and un-manned since the beginning of the war and their infrastructures might have been damaged. However, at the moment the discharge rate is relatively rapid given the small number of vessels in the area. Vessels that will bear increased voyage risk will require insurance premiums resulting in higher voyage expenses. Shipowners’ biggest impediment is to secure insurance for their vessels and cargoes and to find crew to sail their ships. On the other hand, this means that freights will move upwards in order to compensate for the extra risk.
As per the latest update of Ukraine’s Ministry of Agriculture on July 31st, the country’s wheat exports have been down -53.2% y-o-y, while the market outlook for next year’s wheat crop remains bearish. Another downside factor is the quality of the grains that have been loaded in vessels for months under increased humidity and inadequate ventilation. There is a high risk that cargoes that have not been freshly loaded will be rejected by the importers if they do not meet specific requirements.
Under the current circumstances, there are several challenges lying ahead that create doubts on whether the exports could fully or at least partially recover. Given that the situation worsens around the Black Sea area and the materialized deal will be undermined, a further downside for grain trade is more likely within 2H2022. On the contrary, if the operation continues relatively smoothly, the world grain trade could see relief within 2H2022 as a result of an increase in tonne-days demand, while Ukraine could receive up to $1bn/month from its grain exports in order to fund its sowing plans.
By Chara Georgousi
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Tuesday, 16 November 21
CHINA'S MONTHLY COAL OUTPUT RISES TO HIGHEST SINCE MARCH 2015 - REUTERS
China’s October coal output rose to the highest since at least March 2015, after Beijing approved a raft of coal mine expansions to tame reco ...
Friday, 12 November 21
RUSSIA-INDIA COKING COAL DEAL UNLIKELY TO IMPACT PANAMAX SHIPPING - DREWRY
Russia and India have recently entered into an agreement whereby Russia will supply up to 40 million tonnes of coking coal to India every year. Dre ...
Friday, 12 November 21
ASIA COAL POWER PIPELINE TO SHRINK BY TWO THIRDS AFTER CHINA FINANCE CUT - REUTERS
Asia’s pipeline of proposed coal-fired power plants is expected to shrink from 65 gigawatts to 22 gigawatts following China’s pledge to ...
Friday, 12 November 21
INDONESIAN COAL PRICE REFERENCE TOPS $215 A TON; THE HIGHEST COAL PRICE IN HISTORY
COALspot.com: Indonesian Coal Price Reference in a steep climb for most of second half of 2021 as it reached a pinnacle of $215.01 in November 2021 ...
Thursday, 11 November 21
ASIA COAL POWER PIPELINE TO SHRINK BY TWO THIRDS AFTER CHINA FINANCE CUT - REUTERS
Asia’s pipeline of proposed coal-fired power plants is expected to shrink from 65 gigawatts to 22 gigawatts following China’s pledge to ...
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- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- PTC India Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- The University of Queensland
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- White Energy Company Limited
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
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