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Thursday, 11 August 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 On July 22nd, Ukraine signed a deal with Russia to release 22mn tons of grain from Ukraine’s 3 major ports (Yuzhny, Chornomorsk, Odesa). Such an agreement is anticipated to soften grain prices as an immediate response to the increase in global supplies. But it is also anticipated to offer relief to grain mills, in an effort to ensure limited rotting of the current harvest and rapidly free up silos for the next season’s harvest. However, after the deal, a myriad of challenges are left to resolve before exports can ramp up, therefore nothing ensures that exports will pick up in the near term.
On August 1st, the first ship loaded with 26,000 tons of corn departed from Ukraine for Lebanon, marking a resume of Ukraine grain exports. Since then, and at the time of writing, a total of 12 vessels have departed from Ukrainian ports carrying 374,800 tons of agriculture-related merchandise, which is still a fraction of the 22mn tonnes of trapped grain in the country. Ukraine anticipates the number of vessels to pick up grains will be increased to reach full capacity within the following weeks. Given the exports continue successfully, they could increase as much as 3mn tons/month in 4-6 weeks.
In order to ship a total of 22mn tonnes of grains, it is estimated that approx. 371 loadings in 40,000-69,000dwt size vessels will be needed. The vessels will cover routes from the Black Sea to North Africa, the Middle East, and potentially Europe, while their voyages are expected to last approx. 7 days. At the moment most inquiries are Handy-based due to the shallow draft of ports in the Black Sea area and the short distance that needs to be covered. Given the limited duration of the agreement, it is expected that most inquiries will be for short-period time-charters for these particular routes. If the agreement is extended and more shipments will head to Asia, primarily S. Korea and China, there will be increased demand for period charters and for bigger vessels.
Congestion is expected to increase in Ukrainian ports as they have been un-operational and un-manned since the beginning of the war and their infrastructures might have been damaged. However, at the moment the discharge rate is relatively rapid given the small number of vessels in the area. Vessels that will bear increased voyage risk will require insurance premiums resulting in higher voyage expenses. Shipowners’ biggest impediment is to secure insurance for their vessels and cargoes and to find crew to sail their ships. On the other hand, this means that freights will move upwards in order to compensate for the extra risk.
As per the latest update of Ukraine’s Ministry of Agriculture on July 31st, the country’s wheat exports have been down -53.2% y-o-y, while the market outlook for next year’s wheat crop remains bearish. Another downside factor is the quality of the grains that have been loaded in vessels for months under increased humidity and inadequate ventilation. There is a high risk that cargoes that have not been freshly loaded will be rejected by the importers if they do not meet specific requirements.
Under the current circumstances, there are several challenges lying ahead that create doubts on whether the exports could fully or at least partially recover. Given that the situation worsens around the Black Sea area and the materialized deal will be undermined, a further downside for grain trade is more likely within 2H2022. On the contrary, if the operation continues relatively smoothly, the world grain trade could see relief within 2H2022 as a result of an increase in tonne-days demand, while Ukraine could receive up to $1bn/month from its grain exports in order to fund its sowing plans.
By Chara Georgousi
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Thursday, 25 November 21
SE ASIA POWER DEMAND TO RISE AS STATE SUPPORT MITIGATES COVID-19 IMPACT - FITCH RATINGS
Electricity demand in south-east Asia is likely to increase in 2021, following slow growth or contraction in 2020, thanks to state support that has ...
Thursday, 25 November 21
FITCH RATINGS INCREASES MOST GLOBAL METALS AND MINING PRICE ASSUMPTIONS - FITCH RATINGS
Fitch Ratings has increased most metals and mining price assumptions, particularly those that benefit from increased longer-term demand due to glob ...
Thursday, 25 November 21
CHINA'S COAL PRICE DROPS IN MID-NOVEMBER AMID GOVERNMENT’S SWEEPING MEASURES - GLOBAL TIMES
China’s coal prices have dropped significantly in mid-November compared with the beginning of the month, with the price of coking coal and co ...
Wednesday, 24 November 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
Inflation is the word that has dominated the meetings of foreign leaders and finance ministers in recent weeks, as rising energy costs, supply chai ...
Wednesday, 24 November 21
WHY THIS MINING ANALYST IS UPBEAT ON THE IRON ORE PRICE FORECAST - MOTLEY FOOL
In many ways, 2021 can be called the year of the iron ore price. Much of the talk of the ASX town this year has revolved around this key economic m ...
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- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
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- Marubeni Corporation - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Australian Coal Association
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
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