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Thursday, 11 August 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 On July 22nd, Ukraine signed a deal with Russia to release 22mn tons of grain from Ukraine’s 3 major ports (Yuzhny, Chornomorsk, Odesa). Such an agreement is anticipated to soften grain prices as an immediate response to the increase in global supplies. But it is also anticipated to offer relief to grain mills, in an effort to ensure limited rotting of the current harvest and rapidly free up silos for the next season’s harvest. However, after the deal, a myriad of challenges are left to resolve before exports can ramp up, therefore nothing ensures that exports will pick up in the near term.
On August 1st, the first ship loaded with 26,000 tons of corn departed from Ukraine for Lebanon, marking a resume of Ukraine grain exports. Since then, and at the time of writing, a total of 12 vessels have departed from Ukrainian ports carrying 374,800 tons of agriculture-related merchandise, which is still a fraction of the 22mn tonnes of trapped grain in the country. Ukraine anticipates the number of vessels to pick up grains will be increased to reach full capacity within the following weeks. Given the exports continue successfully, they could increase as much as 3mn tons/month in 4-6 weeks.
In order to ship a total of 22mn tonnes of grains, it is estimated that approx. 371 loadings in 40,000-69,000dwt size vessels will be needed. The vessels will cover routes from the Black Sea to North Africa, the Middle East, and potentially Europe, while their voyages are expected to last approx. 7 days. At the moment most inquiries are Handy-based due to the shallow draft of ports in the Black Sea area and the short distance that needs to be covered. Given the limited duration of the agreement, it is expected that most inquiries will be for short-period time-charters for these particular routes. If the agreement is extended and more shipments will head to Asia, primarily S. Korea and China, there will be increased demand for period charters and for bigger vessels.
Congestion is expected to increase in Ukrainian ports as they have been un-operational and un-manned since the beginning of the war and their infrastructures might have been damaged. However, at the moment the discharge rate is relatively rapid given the small number of vessels in the area. Vessels that will bear increased voyage risk will require insurance premiums resulting in higher voyage expenses. Shipowners’ biggest impediment is to secure insurance for their vessels and cargoes and to find crew to sail their ships. On the other hand, this means that freights will move upwards in order to compensate for the extra risk.
As per the latest update of Ukraine’s Ministry of Agriculture on July 31st, the country’s wheat exports have been down -53.2% y-o-y, while the market outlook for next year’s wheat crop remains bearish. Another downside factor is the quality of the grains that have been loaded in vessels for months under increased humidity and inadequate ventilation. There is a high risk that cargoes that have not been freshly loaded will be rejected by the importers if they do not meet specific requirements.
Under the current circumstances, there are several challenges lying ahead that create doubts on whether the exports could fully or at least partially recover. Given that the situation worsens around the Black Sea area and the materialized deal will be undermined, a further downside for grain trade is more likely within 2H2022. On the contrary, if the operation continues relatively smoothly, the world grain trade could see relief within 2H2022 as a result of an increase in tonne-days demand, while Ukraine could receive up to $1bn/month from its grain exports in order to fund its sowing plans.
By Chara Georgousi
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Monday, 06 December 21
CHINA SETS 2022 ANNUAL THERMAL COAL PRICES AT 700 YUAN/T - MEDIA: REUTERS
China’s top economic planner has proposed to set annual thermal coal prices for 2022 at between 550 yuan and 850 yuan ($86-$133) per tonne, a ...
Thursday, 02 December 21
BUMI RECORDED US$ 666.18 MILLION AS REVENUE IN THE 3RD QUARTER, UP 13.31% YOY
PT Bumi Resources Tbk and its subsidiaries have recorded a surge in revenue in the third quarter of 2021. BUMI has recorded US$ 666.18 million as r ...
Thursday, 02 December 21
CHINA'S COAL CRUNCH IS OVER, BUT PRICES ARE STILL TOO HIGH - REUTERS
China’s coal crisis has largely been resolved with gains in both production and stockpiles sufficient to ensure power supplies over winter.
...
Wednesday, 01 December 21
2022 OUTLOOK: INDONESIAN COAL MINING - FITCH RATINGS
Fitch Ratings has a neutral outlook on the Indonesian coal sector for 2022.
Earnings generation should slow down as selling pr ...
Wednesday, 01 December 21
SUPPLY OF COAL TO POWER PLANTS IN NOV MORE THAN CONSUMPTION: JOSHI - PTI
The supply of coal to power plants in November is more than the consumption, resulting in rise in stock of dry fuel at power plants, and this trend ...
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- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Planning Commission, India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Australian Coal Association
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
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