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Thursday, 11 August 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 On July 22nd, Ukraine signed a deal with Russia to release 22mn tons of grain from Ukraine’s 3 major ports (Yuzhny, Chornomorsk, Odesa). Such an agreement is anticipated to soften grain prices as an immediate response to the increase in global supplies. But it is also anticipated to offer relief to grain mills, in an effort to ensure limited rotting of the current harvest and rapidly free up silos for the next season’s harvest. However, after the deal, a myriad of challenges are left to resolve before exports can ramp up, therefore nothing ensures that exports will pick up in the near term.
On August 1st, the first ship loaded with 26,000 tons of corn departed from Ukraine for Lebanon, marking a resume of Ukraine grain exports. Since then, and at the time of writing, a total of 12 vessels have departed from Ukrainian ports carrying 374,800 tons of agriculture-related merchandise, which is still a fraction of the 22mn tonnes of trapped grain in the country. Ukraine anticipates the number of vessels to pick up grains will be increased to reach full capacity within the following weeks. Given the exports continue successfully, they could increase as much as 3mn tons/month in 4-6 weeks.
In order to ship a total of 22mn tonnes of grains, it is estimated that approx. 371 loadings in 40,000-69,000dwt size vessels will be needed. The vessels will cover routes from the Black Sea to North Africa, the Middle East, and potentially Europe, while their voyages are expected to last approx. 7 days. At the moment most inquiries are Handy-based due to the shallow draft of ports in the Black Sea area and the short distance that needs to be covered. Given the limited duration of the agreement, it is expected that most inquiries will be for short-period time-charters for these particular routes. If the agreement is extended and more shipments will head to Asia, primarily S. Korea and China, there will be increased demand for period charters and for bigger vessels.
Congestion is expected to increase in Ukrainian ports as they have been un-operational and un-manned since the beginning of the war and their infrastructures might have been damaged. However, at the moment the discharge rate is relatively rapid given the small number of vessels in the area. Vessels that will bear increased voyage risk will require insurance premiums resulting in higher voyage expenses. Shipowners’ biggest impediment is to secure insurance for their vessels and cargoes and to find crew to sail their ships. On the other hand, this means that freights will move upwards in order to compensate for the extra risk.
As per the latest update of Ukraine’s Ministry of Agriculture on July 31st, the country’s wheat exports have been down -53.2% y-o-y, while the market outlook for next year’s wheat crop remains bearish. Another downside factor is the quality of the grains that have been loaded in vessels for months under increased humidity and inadequate ventilation. There is a high risk that cargoes that have not been freshly loaded will be rejected by the importers if they do not meet specific requirements.
Under the current circumstances, there are several challenges lying ahead that create doubts on whether the exports could fully or at least partially recover. Given that the situation worsens around the Black Sea area and the materialized deal will be undermined, a further downside for grain trade is more likely within 2H2022. On the contrary, if the operation continues relatively smoothly, the world grain trade could see relief within 2H2022 as a result of an increase in tonne-days demand, while Ukraine could receive up to $1bn/month from its grain exports in order to fund its sowing plans.
By Chara Georgousi
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Wednesday, 01 December 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
Essentially, anyone involved in the shipping and commodity markets still struggle with commodity supply issues and skyrocketing prices in the conte ...
Tuesday, 30 November 21
CHINA'S TOP ECONOMIC PLANNER SUMMONS COAL PRODUCERS; LONG-TERM PRICING MECHANISM IS ADVISED - GLOBAL TIMES
China’s top economic planner the National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) said on Monday that they summoned coal producers for a hea ...
Tuesday, 30 November 21
CHINA'S COAL PRICES PLUNGE AFTER GOVT SIGNALS MORE PRICE REGULATION - REUTERS
China’s thermal coal futures dropped 5.6% on Monday after the state economic planner signaled further regulations for prices of the dirty pow ...
Friday, 26 November 21
AS COAL MARKET STABILIZES, CHINA STEPS UP NATURAL GAS SUPPLY TO MEET WINTER DEMAND - GLOBAL TIMES
The daily supply of natural gas in China has exceeded 1 billion cubic meters (bcm) since November began, up 11 percent year-on-year, data from stat ...
Friday, 26 November 21
CHINA FINDS COMPLIANCE PROBLEMS IN COAL PRICE INDEX PROBE - REUTERS
China’s state planner on Wednesday said it had discovered some “noncompliant” behaviour among coal price index providers as it an ...
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- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- The University of Queensland
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Australian Coal Association
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
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