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Thursday, 11 August 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 On July 22nd, Ukraine signed a deal with Russia to release 22mn tons of grain from Ukraine’s 3 major ports (Yuzhny, Chornomorsk, Odesa). Such an agreement is anticipated to soften grain prices as an immediate response to the increase in global supplies. But it is also anticipated to offer relief to grain mills, in an effort to ensure limited rotting of the current harvest and rapidly free up silos for the next season’s harvest. However, after the deal, a myriad of challenges are left to resolve before exports can ramp up, therefore nothing ensures that exports will pick up in the near term.
On August 1st, the first ship loaded with 26,000 tons of corn departed from Ukraine for Lebanon, marking a resume of Ukraine grain exports. Since then, and at the time of writing, a total of 12 vessels have departed from Ukrainian ports carrying 374,800 tons of agriculture-related merchandise, which is still a fraction of the 22mn tonnes of trapped grain in the country. Ukraine anticipates the number of vessels to pick up grains will be increased to reach full capacity within the following weeks. Given the exports continue successfully, they could increase as much as 3mn tons/month in 4-6 weeks.
In order to ship a total of 22mn tonnes of grains, it is estimated that approx. 371 loadings in 40,000-69,000dwt size vessels will be needed. The vessels will cover routes from the Black Sea to North Africa, the Middle East, and potentially Europe, while their voyages are expected to last approx. 7 days. At the moment most inquiries are Handy-based due to the shallow draft of ports in the Black Sea area and the short distance that needs to be covered. Given the limited duration of the agreement, it is expected that most inquiries will be for short-period time-charters for these particular routes. If the agreement is extended and more shipments will head to Asia, primarily S. Korea and China, there will be increased demand for period charters and for bigger vessels.
Congestion is expected to increase in Ukrainian ports as they have been un-operational and un-manned since the beginning of the war and their infrastructures might have been damaged. However, at the moment the discharge rate is relatively rapid given the small number of vessels in the area. Vessels that will bear increased voyage risk will require insurance premiums resulting in higher voyage expenses. Shipowners’ biggest impediment is to secure insurance for their vessels and cargoes and to find crew to sail their ships. On the other hand, this means that freights will move upwards in order to compensate for the extra risk.
As per the latest update of Ukraine’s Ministry of Agriculture on July 31st, the country’s wheat exports have been down -53.2% y-o-y, while the market outlook for next year’s wheat crop remains bearish. Another downside factor is the quality of the grains that have been loaded in vessels for months under increased humidity and inadequate ventilation. There is a high risk that cargoes that have not been freshly loaded will be rejected by the importers if they do not meet specific requirements.
Under the current circumstances, there are several challenges lying ahead that create doubts on whether the exports could fully or at least partially recover. Given that the situation worsens around the Black Sea area and the materialized deal will be undermined, a further downside for grain trade is more likely within 2H2022. On the contrary, if the operation continues relatively smoothly, the world grain trade could see relief within 2H2022 as a result of an increase in tonne-days demand, while Ukraine could receive up to $1bn/month from its grain exports in order to fund its sowing plans.
By Chara Georgousi
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Saturday, 11 December 21
BUNKER BUYERS LOSE UP TO $5/MT FOR NOT COVERING ENOUGH SUPPLIERS - INTEGR8 FUELS
With the Brent price recently touching the $80 mark and before the Omicron variant concerns pushed it lower, bunker prices reached levels not seen ...
Tuesday, 07 December 21
SUPERCYCLE DEMAND: ARE WE THERE YET? - WOOD MACKENZIE
Taking young children on a long journey is fraught with challenges, not least the inevitable question a few minutes after leaving: are we there yet ...
Tuesday, 07 December 21
COAL WOULD REMAIN ENERGY LEADER FOR AT LEAST 15 YEARS - LIVEMINT
Coal India Ltd (CIL) has been in the eye of the storm after fuel stocks at coal-fuelled power plants depleted in October. Fuel stocks since are bei ...
Tuesday, 07 December 21
GLOBAL SHIPPING OUTLOOK TURNS STABLE FROM POSITIVE ON THE BACK OF PEAKING EARNINGS DURING 2021 - MOODY'S
The outlook for the global shipping industry is changed to stable from positive for the next 12 to 18 months due to demand slightly outstripping su ...
Tuesday, 07 December 21
COAL FIRMS SEE SHARE PRICES SURGE MONDAY, AFTER GOVERNMENT READJUSTS CONTRACT PRICES - GLOBAL TIMES
Share prices of China’s coal enterprises jumped on Monday on the A-share market following a nationwide adjustment to annual thermal coal pric ...
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- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Planning Commission, India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- White Energy Company Limited
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- The University of Queensland
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- CNBM International Corporation - China
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