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Thursday, 11 August 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 On July 22nd, Ukraine signed a deal with Russia to release 22mn tons of grain from Ukraine’s 3 major ports (Yuzhny, Chornomorsk, Odesa). Such an agreement is anticipated to soften grain prices as an immediate response to the increase in global supplies. But it is also anticipated to offer relief to grain mills, in an effort to ensure limited rotting of the current harvest and rapidly free up silos for the next season’s harvest. However, after the deal, a myriad of challenges are left to resolve before exports can ramp up, therefore nothing ensures that exports will pick up in the near term.
On August 1st, the first ship loaded with 26,000 tons of corn departed from Ukraine for Lebanon, marking a resume of Ukraine grain exports. Since then, and at the time of writing, a total of 12 vessels have departed from Ukrainian ports carrying 374,800 tons of agriculture-related merchandise, which is still a fraction of the 22mn tonnes of trapped grain in the country. Ukraine anticipates the number of vessels to pick up grains will be increased to reach full capacity within the following weeks. Given the exports continue successfully, they could increase as much as 3mn tons/month in 4-6 weeks.
In order to ship a total of 22mn tonnes of grains, it is estimated that approx. 371 loadings in 40,000-69,000dwt size vessels will be needed. The vessels will cover routes from the Black Sea to North Africa, the Middle East, and potentially Europe, while their voyages are expected to last approx. 7 days. At the moment most inquiries are Handy-based due to the shallow draft of ports in the Black Sea area and the short distance that needs to be covered. Given the limited duration of the agreement, it is expected that most inquiries will be for short-period time-charters for these particular routes. If the agreement is extended and more shipments will head to Asia, primarily S. Korea and China, there will be increased demand for period charters and for bigger vessels.
Congestion is expected to increase in Ukrainian ports as they have been un-operational and un-manned since the beginning of the war and their infrastructures might have been damaged. However, at the moment the discharge rate is relatively rapid given the small number of vessels in the area. Vessels that will bear increased voyage risk will require insurance premiums resulting in higher voyage expenses. Shipowners’ biggest impediment is to secure insurance for their vessels and cargoes and to find crew to sail their ships. On the other hand, this means that freights will move upwards in order to compensate for the extra risk.
As per the latest update of Ukraine’s Ministry of Agriculture on July 31st, the country’s wheat exports have been down -53.2% y-o-y, while the market outlook for next year’s wheat crop remains bearish. Another downside factor is the quality of the grains that have been loaded in vessels for months under increased humidity and inadequate ventilation. There is a high risk that cargoes that have not been freshly loaded will be rejected by the importers if they do not meet specific requirements.
Under the current circumstances, there are several challenges lying ahead that create doubts on whether the exports could fully or at least partially recover. Given that the situation worsens around the Black Sea area and the materialized deal will be undermined, a further downside for grain trade is more likely within 2H2022. On the contrary, if the operation continues relatively smoothly, the world grain trade could see relief within 2H2022 as a result of an increase in tonne-days demand, while Ukraine could receive up to $1bn/month from its grain exports in order to fund its sowing plans.
By Chara Georgousi
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Tuesday, 05 October 21
CAPESIZE MARKET WAS IN A STEEP CLIMB FOR MOST OF THIS WEEK - BALTIC EXCHANGE
Capesize
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Wednesday, 29 September 21
THE WRITING IS ON THE WALL: AUSTRALIA’S COAL ERA IS OVER - YAHOO!FINANCE
As the fringe of Australian politics strives to pump up the coal industry, facts show that coal production has started its long run decline.
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Wednesday, 29 September 21
SURGING COAL PRICES SPLIT ASIAN BUYERS INTO RICH AND POOR - REUTERS
As seaborne coal in Asia trades at, or near, record highs, there are early signs of demand destruction, especially among price-sensitive buyers suc ...
Wednesday, 29 September 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
Tanker Asset values have surprised to the upside, despite the downward pressure on the freight market. Tanker rates have been hovering close to the ...
Tuesday, 28 September 21
THE MAIDEN EDITION OF DIVE TECHNOLOGY SUMMIT 2021 CONCLUDES SUCCESSFULLY
Press Release: DIVE TECHNOLOGY SUMMIT 2021, a one-day conference on the recent technological advancements in the Industrial Diving industry conclud ...
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- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- PTC India Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Planning Commission, India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- The University of Queensland
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
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