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Thursday, 11 August 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 On July 22nd, Ukraine signed a deal with Russia to release 22mn tons of grain from Ukraine’s 3 major ports (Yuzhny, Chornomorsk, Odesa). Such an agreement is anticipated to soften grain prices as an immediate response to the increase in global supplies. But it is also anticipated to offer relief to grain mills, in an effort to ensure limited rotting of the current harvest and rapidly free up silos for the next season’s harvest. However, after the deal, a myriad of challenges are left to resolve before exports can ramp up, therefore nothing ensures that exports will pick up in the near term.
On August 1st, the first ship loaded with 26,000 tons of corn departed from Ukraine for Lebanon, marking a resume of Ukraine grain exports. Since then, and at the time of writing, a total of 12 vessels have departed from Ukrainian ports carrying 374,800 tons of agriculture-related merchandise, which is still a fraction of the 22mn tonnes of trapped grain in the country. Ukraine anticipates the number of vessels to pick up grains will be increased to reach full capacity within the following weeks. Given the exports continue successfully, they could increase as much as 3mn tons/month in 4-6 weeks.
In order to ship a total of 22mn tonnes of grains, it is estimated that approx. 371 loadings in 40,000-69,000dwt size vessels will be needed. The vessels will cover routes from the Black Sea to North Africa, the Middle East, and potentially Europe, while their voyages are expected to last approx. 7 days. At the moment most inquiries are Handy-based due to the shallow draft of ports in the Black Sea area and the short distance that needs to be covered. Given the limited duration of the agreement, it is expected that most inquiries will be for short-period time-charters for these particular routes. If the agreement is extended and more shipments will head to Asia, primarily S. Korea and China, there will be increased demand for period charters and for bigger vessels.
Congestion is expected to increase in Ukrainian ports as they have been un-operational and un-manned since the beginning of the war and their infrastructures might have been damaged. However, at the moment the discharge rate is relatively rapid given the small number of vessels in the area. Vessels that will bear increased voyage risk will require insurance premiums resulting in higher voyage expenses. Shipowners’ biggest impediment is to secure insurance for their vessels and cargoes and to find crew to sail their ships. On the other hand, this means that freights will move upwards in order to compensate for the extra risk.
As per the latest update of Ukraine’s Ministry of Agriculture on July 31st, the country’s wheat exports have been down -53.2% y-o-y, while the market outlook for next year’s wheat crop remains bearish. Another downside factor is the quality of the grains that have been loaded in vessels for months under increased humidity and inadequate ventilation. There is a high risk that cargoes that have not been freshly loaded will be rejected by the importers if they do not meet specific requirements.
Under the current circumstances, there are several challenges lying ahead that create doubts on whether the exports could fully or at least partially recover. Given that the situation worsens around the Black Sea area and the materialized deal will be undermined, a further downside for grain trade is more likely within 2H2022. On the contrary, if the operation continues relatively smoothly, the world grain trade could see relief within 2H2022 as a result of an increase in tonne-days demand, while Ukraine could receive up to $1bn/month from its grain exports in order to fund its sowing plans.
By Chara Georgousi
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Wednesday, 22 September 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
The unfolding last week of a trilateral defence pact between the United States, Australia, the United Kingdom (AUKUS) envisages a wide range of col ...
Tuesday, 21 September 21
CHINESE COAL IMPORTS FROM AUSTRALIA DROP 98.6% AS RESTRICTIONS BITE - BIMCO
In the first seven months of the year Chinese coal imports from Australia have totalled just 780,000 tonnes as Chinese restrictions on Australian c ...
Tuesday, 21 September 21
CHINA'S COAL OUTPUT RESUMES GROWTH IN AUGUST - XINHUA
China’s raw coal output rose 0.8 percent year on year to 340 million tonnes last month, official data showed.
The growth rate ...
Wednesday, 15 September 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
Following the oil price sell off during most of August, partly triggered by oil demand fears amid the delta COVID variant, oil prices have resumed ...
Saturday, 11 September 21
CIL STEPS UP SUPPLY COAL TO POWER SECTOR; PER-DAY AVERAGE 20 PC HIGHER THAN LAST YEAR - PTI
State-owned CIL on Friday said it has stepped up the supply of coal to the power sector in the first eight days of the current month, with an avera ...
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- Marubeni Corporation - India
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- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
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- Australian Coal Association
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- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
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- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
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- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
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- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
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- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
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- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
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- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
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- Romanian Commodities Exchange
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- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
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- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
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- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
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- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
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- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
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- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
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- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
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- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
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- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
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- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
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- Economic Council, Georgia
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- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
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- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
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- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
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- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
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