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Thursday, 11 August 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 On July 22nd, Ukraine signed a deal with Russia to release 22mn tons of grain from Ukraine’s 3 major ports (Yuzhny, Chornomorsk, Odesa). Such an agreement is anticipated to soften grain prices as an immediate response to the increase in global supplies. But it is also anticipated to offer relief to grain mills, in an effort to ensure limited rotting of the current harvest and rapidly free up silos for the next season’s harvest. However, after the deal, a myriad of challenges are left to resolve before exports can ramp up, therefore nothing ensures that exports will pick up in the near term.
On August 1st, the first ship loaded with 26,000 tons of corn departed from Ukraine for Lebanon, marking a resume of Ukraine grain exports. Since then, and at the time of writing, a total of 12 vessels have departed from Ukrainian ports carrying 374,800 tons of agriculture-related merchandise, which is still a fraction of the 22mn tonnes of trapped grain in the country. Ukraine anticipates the number of vessels to pick up grains will be increased to reach full capacity within the following weeks. Given the exports continue successfully, they could increase as much as 3mn tons/month in 4-6 weeks.
In order to ship a total of 22mn tonnes of grains, it is estimated that approx. 371 loadings in 40,000-69,000dwt size vessels will be needed. The vessels will cover routes from the Black Sea to North Africa, the Middle East, and potentially Europe, while their voyages are expected to last approx. 7 days. At the moment most inquiries are Handy-based due to the shallow draft of ports in the Black Sea area and the short distance that needs to be covered. Given the limited duration of the agreement, it is expected that most inquiries will be for short-period time-charters for these particular routes. If the agreement is extended and more shipments will head to Asia, primarily S. Korea and China, there will be increased demand for period charters and for bigger vessels.
Congestion is expected to increase in Ukrainian ports as they have been un-operational and un-manned since the beginning of the war and their infrastructures might have been damaged. However, at the moment the discharge rate is relatively rapid given the small number of vessels in the area. Vessels that will bear increased voyage risk will require insurance premiums resulting in higher voyage expenses. Shipowners’ biggest impediment is to secure insurance for their vessels and cargoes and to find crew to sail their ships. On the other hand, this means that freights will move upwards in order to compensate for the extra risk.
As per the latest update of Ukraine’s Ministry of Agriculture on July 31st, the country’s wheat exports have been down -53.2% y-o-y, while the market outlook for next year’s wheat crop remains bearish. Another downside factor is the quality of the grains that have been loaded in vessels for months under increased humidity and inadequate ventilation. There is a high risk that cargoes that have not been freshly loaded will be rejected by the importers if they do not meet specific requirements.
Under the current circumstances, there are several challenges lying ahead that create doubts on whether the exports could fully or at least partially recover. Given that the situation worsens around the Black Sea area and the materialized deal will be undermined, a further downside for grain trade is more likely within 2H2022. On the contrary, if the operation continues relatively smoothly, the world grain trade could see relief within 2H2022 as a result of an increase in tonne-days demand, while Ukraine could receive up to $1bn/month from its grain exports in order to fund its sowing plans.
By Chara Georgousi
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- PTC India Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- The University of Queensland
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
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