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Thursday, 11 August 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 On July 22nd, Ukraine signed a deal with Russia to release 22mn tons of grain from Ukraine’s 3 major ports (Yuzhny, Chornomorsk, Odesa). Such an agreement is anticipated to soften grain prices as an immediate response to the increase in global supplies. But it is also anticipated to offer relief to grain mills, in an effort to ensure limited rotting of the current harvest and rapidly free up silos for the next season’s harvest. However, after the deal, a myriad of challenges are left to resolve before exports can ramp up, therefore nothing ensures that exports will pick up in the near term.
On August 1st, the first ship loaded with 26,000 tons of corn departed from Ukraine for Lebanon, marking a resume of Ukraine grain exports. Since then, and at the time of writing, a total of 12 vessels have departed from Ukrainian ports carrying 374,800 tons of agriculture-related merchandise, which is still a fraction of the 22mn tonnes of trapped grain in the country. Ukraine anticipates the number of vessels to pick up grains will be increased to reach full capacity within the following weeks. Given the exports continue successfully, they could increase as much as 3mn tons/month in 4-6 weeks.
In order to ship a total of 22mn tonnes of grains, it is estimated that approx. 371 loadings in 40,000-69,000dwt size vessels will be needed. The vessels will cover routes from the Black Sea to North Africa, the Middle East, and potentially Europe, while their voyages are expected to last approx. 7 days. At the moment most inquiries are Handy-based due to the shallow draft of ports in the Black Sea area and the short distance that needs to be covered. Given the limited duration of the agreement, it is expected that most inquiries will be for short-period time-charters for these particular routes. If the agreement is extended and more shipments will head to Asia, primarily S. Korea and China, there will be increased demand for period charters and for bigger vessels.
Congestion is expected to increase in Ukrainian ports as they have been un-operational and un-manned since the beginning of the war and their infrastructures might have been damaged. However, at the moment the discharge rate is relatively rapid given the small number of vessels in the area. Vessels that will bear increased voyage risk will require insurance premiums resulting in higher voyage expenses. Shipowners’ biggest impediment is to secure insurance for their vessels and cargoes and to find crew to sail their ships. On the other hand, this means that freights will move upwards in order to compensate for the extra risk.
As per the latest update of Ukraine’s Ministry of Agriculture on July 31st, the country’s wheat exports have been down -53.2% y-o-y, while the market outlook for next year’s wheat crop remains bearish. Another downside factor is the quality of the grains that have been loaded in vessels for months under increased humidity and inadequate ventilation. There is a high risk that cargoes that have not been freshly loaded will be rejected by the importers if they do not meet specific requirements.
Under the current circumstances, there are several challenges lying ahead that create doubts on whether the exports could fully or at least partially recover. Given that the situation worsens around the Black Sea area and the materialized deal will be undermined, a further downside for grain trade is more likely within 2H2022. On the contrary, if the operation continues relatively smoothly, the world grain trade could see relief within 2H2022 as a result of an increase in tonne-days demand, while Ukraine could receive up to $1bn/month from its grain exports in order to fund its sowing plans.
By Chara Georgousi
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Thursday, 03 February 22
COAL SHORTAGE NOW AT ALARMING LEVELS, SAY ALUMINIUM PRODUCERS - IANS
With no relief in sight despite coal stocks running critically low and production disruptions looming across the Indian aluminium sector, the Alumi ...
Wednesday, 02 February 22
HIGH COKING COAL PRICES PROVIDE GLIMPSE INTO STEELMAKING'S FUTURE - MCKINSEY
Last year was a volatile one in global commodity markets. Demand for coking coal, an essential raw material in the production of steel, was extreme ...
Wednesday, 02 February 22
INDONESIA'S RESTRICTIONS ON COMMODITIES RATTLE MARKETS, MORE MOVES LIKELY - REUTERS
In just the first month of this year, Indonesian policymakers have rattled global markets with restrictions on some of its biggest commodities expo ...
Wednesday, 02 February 22
CHINA'S TOP COAL PRODUCER FORECASTS 28 PCT PROFIT GROWTH IN 2021 - XINHUA
China Shenhua Energy Company Limited, one of the country’s biggest coal producers, said its net profits are expected to jump by 28 percent in ...
Wednesday, 02 February 22
COAL STORAGE IN CHINA’S POWER PLANTS NEAR RECORD HIGHS - XINHUA
Coal inflows into China’s power plants have picked up, bringing their coal storage to near record highs, the National Development and Reform ...
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- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Australian Coal Association
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- The University of Queensland
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- PTC India Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
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