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Thursday, 11 August 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 On July 22nd, Ukraine signed a deal with Russia to release 22mn tons of grain from Ukraine’s 3 major ports (Yuzhny, Chornomorsk, Odesa). Such an agreement is anticipated to soften grain prices as an immediate response to the increase in global supplies. But it is also anticipated to offer relief to grain mills, in an effort to ensure limited rotting of the current harvest and rapidly free up silos for the next season’s harvest. However, after the deal, a myriad of challenges are left to resolve before exports can ramp up, therefore nothing ensures that exports will pick up in the near term.
On August 1st, the first ship loaded with 26,000 tons of corn departed from Ukraine for Lebanon, marking a resume of Ukraine grain exports. Since then, and at the time of writing, a total of 12 vessels have departed from Ukrainian ports carrying 374,800 tons of agriculture-related merchandise, which is still a fraction of the 22mn tonnes of trapped grain in the country. Ukraine anticipates the number of vessels to pick up grains will be increased to reach full capacity within the following weeks. Given the exports continue successfully, they could increase as much as 3mn tons/month in 4-6 weeks.
In order to ship a total of 22mn tonnes of grains, it is estimated that approx. 371 loadings in 40,000-69,000dwt size vessels will be needed. The vessels will cover routes from the Black Sea to North Africa, the Middle East, and potentially Europe, while their voyages are expected to last approx. 7 days. At the moment most inquiries are Handy-based due to the shallow draft of ports in the Black Sea area and the short distance that needs to be covered. Given the limited duration of the agreement, it is expected that most inquiries will be for short-period time-charters for these particular routes. If the agreement is extended and more shipments will head to Asia, primarily S. Korea and China, there will be increased demand for period charters and for bigger vessels.
Congestion is expected to increase in Ukrainian ports as they have been un-operational and un-manned since the beginning of the war and their infrastructures might have been damaged. However, at the moment the discharge rate is relatively rapid given the small number of vessels in the area. Vessels that will bear increased voyage risk will require insurance premiums resulting in higher voyage expenses. Shipowners’ biggest impediment is to secure insurance for their vessels and cargoes and to find crew to sail their ships. On the other hand, this means that freights will move upwards in order to compensate for the extra risk.
As per the latest update of Ukraine’s Ministry of Agriculture on July 31st, the country’s wheat exports have been down -53.2% y-o-y, while the market outlook for next year’s wheat crop remains bearish. Another downside factor is the quality of the grains that have been loaded in vessels for months under increased humidity and inadequate ventilation. There is a high risk that cargoes that have not been freshly loaded will be rejected by the importers if they do not meet specific requirements.
Under the current circumstances, there are several challenges lying ahead that create doubts on whether the exports could fully or at least partially recover. Given that the situation worsens around the Black Sea area and the materialized deal will be undermined, a further downside for grain trade is more likely within 2H2022. On the contrary, if the operation continues relatively smoothly, the world grain trade could see relief within 2H2022 as a result of an increase in tonne-days demand, while Ukraine could receive up to $1bn/month from its grain exports in order to fund its sowing plans.
By Chara Georgousi
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Thursday, 17 February 22
APAC THERMAL COAL PRICES TO EASE ON END OF INDONESIA EXPORT BAN - FITCH RATINGS
Fitch Ratings-Shanghai/Singapore-14 February 2022: APAC thermal coal prices are likely to come under pressure in the near term due to seasonally we ...
Tuesday, 15 February 22
IS ANOTHER COAL SHORTAGE CRISIS LOOMING OVER INDIA? - BUSINESS STANDARD
In December last year, the Federation of Indian Mineral Industries (FIMI) shot off a letter to the Prime Minister claiming that the coal crisis was ...
Tuesday, 15 February 22
THERMAL COAL'S RECORD PRICE RUN MAY END UP ITS OWN WORST ENEMY - REUTERS
The price of benchmark Australian thermal coal rose last week to trade near record highs, providing a short-term boost to producers but increasing ...
Thursday, 10 February 22
INDONESIA: COAL EXPORT BAN - SKULD
Indonesia's coal export ban in the light of force majeure and off-hire clauses
In January 2022, Indonesia, the world's biggest exporte ...
Thursday, 10 February 22
EIA ANALYSIS CONSIDERS DIFFERENT OUTCOMES FOR COAL MARKETS IN INDIA AND SOUTHEAST ASIA
In our International Energy Outlook 2021 (IEO2021) Issues in Focus: Uncertainty in Coal Trade in India and Greater Southeast Asia, we analyze three ...
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- The University of Queensland
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- White Energy Company Limited
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- PTC India Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
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