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Thursday, 11 August 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 On July 22nd, Ukraine signed a deal with Russia to release 22mn tons of grain from Ukraine’s 3 major ports (Yuzhny, Chornomorsk, Odesa). Such an agreement is anticipated to soften grain prices as an immediate response to the increase in global supplies. But it is also anticipated to offer relief to grain mills, in an effort to ensure limited rotting of the current harvest and rapidly free up silos for the next season’s harvest. However, after the deal, a myriad of challenges are left to resolve before exports can ramp up, therefore nothing ensures that exports will pick up in the near term.
On August 1st, the first ship loaded with 26,000 tons of corn departed from Ukraine for Lebanon, marking a resume of Ukraine grain exports. Since then, and at the time of writing, a total of 12 vessels have departed from Ukrainian ports carrying 374,800 tons of agriculture-related merchandise, which is still a fraction of the 22mn tonnes of trapped grain in the country. Ukraine anticipates the number of vessels to pick up grains will be increased to reach full capacity within the following weeks. Given the exports continue successfully, they could increase as much as 3mn tons/month in 4-6 weeks.
In order to ship a total of 22mn tonnes of grains, it is estimated that approx. 371 loadings in 40,000-69,000dwt size vessels will be needed. The vessels will cover routes from the Black Sea to North Africa, the Middle East, and potentially Europe, while their voyages are expected to last approx. 7 days. At the moment most inquiries are Handy-based due to the shallow draft of ports in the Black Sea area and the short distance that needs to be covered. Given the limited duration of the agreement, it is expected that most inquiries will be for short-period time-charters for these particular routes. If the agreement is extended and more shipments will head to Asia, primarily S. Korea and China, there will be increased demand for period charters and for bigger vessels.
Congestion is expected to increase in Ukrainian ports as they have been un-operational and un-manned since the beginning of the war and their infrastructures might have been damaged. However, at the moment the discharge rate is relatively rapid given the small number of vessels in the area. Vessels that will bear increased voyage risk will require insurance premiums resulting in higher voyage expenses. Shipowners’ biggest impediment is to secure insurance for their vessels and cargoes and to find crew to sail their ships. On the other hand, this means that freights will move upwards in order to compensate for the extra risk.
As per the latest update of Ukraine’s Ministry of Agriculture on July 31st, the country’s wheat exports have been down -53.2% y-o-y, while the market outlook for next year’s wheat crop remains bearish. Another downside factor is the quality of the grains that have been loaded in vessels for months under increased humidity and inadequate ventilation. There is a high risk that cargoes that have not been freshly loaded will be rejected by the importers if they do not meet specific requirements.
Under the current circumstances, there are several challenges lying ahead that create doubts on whether the exports could fully or at least partially recover. Given that the situation worsens around the Black Sea area and the materialized deal will be undermined, a further downside for grain trade is more likely within 2H2022. On the contrary, if the operation continues relatively smoothly, the world grain trade could see relief within 2H2022 as a result of an increase in tonne-days demand, while Ukraine could receive up to $1bn/month from its grain exports in order to fund its sowing plans.
By Chara Georgousi
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Tuesday, 08 March 22
THE HIGH COST OF INDONESIA’S DOWNSTREAM COAL PROJECTS IS UNDERESTIMATED - IEEFA
Three Indonesian ministries have come up with a DME purchase price of US$378/tonne fixed for 20 years compared to IEEFA’s US$601/tonne estima ...
Wednesday, 02 March 22
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
The escalating confrontation between Russia and Ukraine has the potential to disrupt global order and set the world back a few decades. While count ...
Tuesday, 22 February 22
THE DRY BULK MARKET HAS MOVED ON A POSITIVE TRACK - ALLIED
The dry bulk market has moved on a positive track as of the past couple of weeks or so. Following the typical softening in freight conditions durin ...
Tuesday, 22 February 22
CHINA'S DAILY OUTPUT OF COAL REBOUNDS TO OVER 12 MLN TONNES - REUTERS
China’s coal output returned to more than 12 million tonnes per day as of Feb. 20, the country’s state planner said on Monday, a level ...
Thursday, 17 February 22
MAJOR INSTITUTIONS PROVIDED OVER $1.5 TRLN TO COAL SECTOR IN 2019-2021, SAYS NGO GROUP - REUTERS
Financial institutions channelled more than $1.5 trillion into the coal industry in loans and underwriting from January 2019 to November 2021, even ...
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- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- The University of Queensland
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Planning Commission, India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- MS Steel International - UAE
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Australian Coal Association
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- PTC India Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
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