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Thursday, 11 August 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 On July 22nd, Ukraine signed a deal with Russia to release 22mn tons of grain from Ukraine’s 3 major ports (Yuzhny, Chornomorsk, Odesa). Such an agreement is anticipated to soften grain prices as an immediate response to the increase in global supplies. But it is also anticipated to offer relief to grain mills, in an effort to ensure limited rotting of the current harvest and rapidly free up silos for the next season’s harvest. However, after the deal, a myriad of challenges are left to resolve before exports can ramp up, therefore nothing ensures that exports will pick up in the near term.
On August 1st, the first ship loaded with 26,000 tons of corn departed from Ukraine for Lebanon, marking a resume of Ukraine grain exports. Since then, and at the time of writing, a total of 12 vessels have departed from Ukrainian ports carrying 374,800 tons of agriculture-related merchandise, which is still a fraction of the 22mn tonnes of trapped grain in the country. Ukraine anticipates the number of vessels to pick up grains will be increased to reach full capacity within the following weeks. Given the exports continue successfully, they could increase as much as 3mn tons/month in 4-6 weeks.
In order to ship a total of 22mn tonnes of grains, it is estimated that approx. 371 loadings in 40,000-69,000dwt size vessels will be needed. The vessels will cover routes from the Black Sea to North Africa, the Middle East, and potentially Europe, while their voyages are expected to last approx. 7 days. At the moment most inquiries are Handy-based due to the shallow draft of ports in the Black Sea area and the short distance that needs to be covered. Given the limited duration of the agreement, it is expected that most inquiries will be for short-period time-charters for these particular routes. If the agreement is extended and more shipments will head to Asia, primarily S. Korea and China, there will be increased demand for period charters and for bigger vessels.
Congestion is expected to increase in Ukrainian ports as they have been un-operational and un-manned since the beginning of the war and their infrastructures might have been damaged. However, at the moment the discharge rate is relatively rapid given the small number of vessels in the area. Vessels that will bear increased voyage risk will require insurance premiums resulting in higher voyage expenses. Shipowners’ biggest impediment is to secure insurance for their vessels and cargoes and to find crew to sail their ships. On the other hand, this means that freights will move upwards in order to compensate for the extra risk.
As per the latest update of Ukraine’s Ministry of Agriculture on July 31st, the country’s wheat exports have been down -53.2% y-o-y, while the market outlook for next year’s wheat crop remains bearish. Another downside factor is the quality of the grains that have been loaded in vessels for months under increased humidity and inadequate ventilation. There is a high risk that cargoes that have not been freshly loaded will be rejected by the importers if they do not meet specific requirements.
Under the current circumstances, there are several challenges lying ahead that create doubts on whether the exports could fully or at least partially recover. Given that the situation worsens around the Black Sea area and the materialized deal will be undermined, a further downside for grain trade is more likely within 2H2022. On the contrary, if the operation continues relatively smoothly, the world grain trade could see relief within 2H2022 as a result of an increase in tonne-days demand, while Ukraine could receive up to $1bn/month from its grain exports in order to fund its sowing plans.
By Chara Georgousi
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Wednesday, 09 February 22
OIL PRICES: "IT'S GOING TO BE VERY EASY" TO GET TO $100/BARREL, ANALYST SAYS - YAHOO FINANCE
Energy and oil prices have been on fire over the last six months — and expect them to go higher, says one analyst.
“For ...
Wednesday, 09 February 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
Iron ore prices have jumped significantly in the week prior to the Chinese New Year with traders and producers stocking up on raw materials. China& ...
Wednesday, 09 February 22
FEBRUARY HBA HITS RECORD HIGH IN 2022 ON INDONESIA’S EXPORT BAN IN JANUARY, WORSEN SUPPLY, UKRAINE TENSIONS
COALspot.com: Indonesian Coal Price Reference for February in a steep climb from January 2022.
As expected in January the Indonesia ...
Wednesday, 09 February 22
CHINESE COAL MARKS BEST DAY IN 4 MONTHS ON TIGHT SUPPLY, HIGH DEMAND - REUTERS
China’s coal futures on Tuesday recorded their best session since Bejing’s mid-October intervention to cool runaway prices, aided by co ...
Friday, 04 February 22
RENEWABLES ON THE RISE, COAL CONTINUOUSLY FALLING - EUROPEAN COMMISSION
Although oil (34.5%) and natural gas (23.7%) were still the most important fuel sources in the EU energy mix in 2020, renewable energy’s shar ...
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- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Planning Commission, India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Minerals Council of Australia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
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