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Thursday, 11 August 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 On July 22nd, Ukraine signed a deal with Russia to release 22mn tons of grain from Ukraine’s 3 major ports (Yuzhny, Chornomorsk, Odesa). Such an agreement is anticipated to soften grain prices as an immediate response to the increase in global supplies. But it is also anticipated to offer relief to grain mills, in an effort to ensure limited rotting of the current harvest and rapidly free up silos for the next season’s harvest. However, after the deal, a myriad of challenges are left to resolve before exports can ramp up, therefore nothing ensures that exports will pick up in the near term.
On August 1st, the first ship loaded with 26,000 tons of corn departed from Ukraine for Lebanon, marking a resume of Ukraine grain exports. Since then, and at the time of writing, a total of 12 vessels have departed from Ukrainian ports carrying 374,800 tons of agriculture-related merchandise, which is still a fraction of the 22mn tonnes of trapped grain in the country. Ukraine anticipates the number of vessels to pick up grains will be increased to reach full capacity within the following weeks. Given the exports continue successfully, they could increase as much as 3mn tons/month in 4-6 weeks.
In order to ship a total of 22mn tonnes of grains, it is estimated that approx. 371 loadings in 40,000-69,000dwt size vessels will be needed. The vessels will cover routes from the Black Sea to North Africa, the Middle East, and potentially Europe, while their voyages are expected to last approx. 7 days. At the moment most inquiries are Handy-based due to the shallow draft of ports in the Black Sea area and the short distance that needs to be covered. Given the limited duration of the agreement, it is expected that most inquiries will be for short-period time-charters for these particular routes. If the agreement is extended and more shipments will head to Asia, primarily S. Korea and China, there will be increased demand for period charters and for bigger vessels.
Congestion is expected to increase in Ukrainian ports as they have been un-operational and un-manned since the beginning of the war and their infrastructures might have been damaged. However, at the moment the discharge rate is relatively rapid given the small number of vessels in the area. Vessels that will bear increased voyage risk will require insurance premiums resulting in higher voyage expenses. Shipowners’ biggest impediment is to secure insurance for their vessels and cargoes and to find crew to sail their ships. On the other hand, this means that freights will move upwards in order to compensate for the extra risk.
As per the latest update of Ukraine’s Ministry of Agriculture on July 31st, the country’s wheat exports have been down -53.2% y-o-y, while the market outlook for next year’s wheat crop remains bearish. Another downside factor is the quality of the grains that have been loaded in vessels for months under increased humidity and inadequate ventilation. There is a high risk that cargoes that have not been freshly loaded will be rejected by the importers if they do not meet specific requirements.
Under the current circumstances, there are several challenges lying ahead that create doubts on whether the exports could fully or at least partially recover. Given that the situation worsens around the Black Sea area and the materialized deal will be undermined, a further downside for grain trade is more likely within 2H2022. On the contrary, if the operation continues relatively smoothly, the world grain trade could see relief within 2H2022 as a result of an increase in tonne-days demand, while Ukraine could receive up to $1bn/month from its grain exports in order to fund its sowing plans.
By Chara Georgousi
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Tuesday, 05 April 22
INDONESIAN COAL PRICE REFERENCE HITS RECORD ABOVE $288
COALspot.com: Indonesian Coal Price Reference for April in a steep climb from March 2022.
As expected, Russia – Ukraine war dr ...
Thursday, 31 March 22
CHINA STATE PLANNER ASKS COAL INDEX PROVIDERS TO RECTIFY IRREGULARITIES - REUTERS
China’s state planner has asked some major coal price index providers to rectify “severe irregularities” it had identified in the ...
Thursday, 31 March 22
IMPORTED COAL PRICES TO JUMP 55% IN APR-JUN, IMPACT INDIAN FIRMS: ICRA - LIVEMINT
Supply disruption owing to the Russia-Ukraine conflict could push the price of imported coal by 45-55% in Q1FY23 compared to the previous quarter, ...
Thursday, 31 March 22
CHINA'S COAL OUTPUT SET FOR MODERATE GROWTH IN 2022 - INDUSTRY BODY - REUTERS
China is expected to see its coal output to grow further in 2022 after hitting a record last year, an industry body forecast on Wednesday, as the c ...
Tuesday, 29 March 22
MEMR OF INDONESIA HAS FIXED COAL PRICE AT US$ 90 PER TONNE FOR DOMESTIC INDUSTRIES EXCEPT SMELTER INDUSTRIES; FOR PLN USD 70 IS APPLICABLE
Minister of Energy and Mineral Resources (ESDM) Arifin Tasrif has set the selling price of coal for domestic, industrial except metal processing an ...
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- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Central Electricity Authority - India
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- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
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- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
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- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
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- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Australian Coal Association
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Planning Commission, India
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- Posco Energy - South Korea
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
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- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
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