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Thursday, 11 August 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 On July 22nd, Ukraine signed a deal with Russia to release 22mn tons of grain from Ukraine’s 3 major ports (Yuzhny, Chornomorsk, Odesa). Such an agreement is anticipated to soften grain prices as an immediate response to the increase in global supplies. But it is also anticipated to offer relief to grain mills, in an effort to ensure limited rotting of the current harvest and rapidly free up silos for the next season’s harvest. However, after the deal, a myriad of challenges are left to resolve before exports can ramp up, therefore nothing ensures that exports will pick up in the near term.
On August 1st, the first ship loaded with 26,000 tons of corn departed from Ukraine for Lebanon, marking a resume of Ukraine grain exports. Since then, and at the time of writing, a total of 12 vessels have departed from Ukrainian ports carrying 374,800 tons of agriculture-related merchandise, which is still a fraction of the 22mn tonnes of trapped grain in the country. Ukraine anticipates the number of vessels to pick up grains will be increased to reach full capacity within the following weeks. Given the exports continue successfully, they could increase as much as 3mn tons/month in 4-6 weeks.
In order to ship a total of 22mn tonnes of grains, it is estimated that approx. 371 loadings in 40,000-69,000dwt size vessels will be needed. The vessels will cover routes from the Black Sea to North Africa, the Middle East, and potentially Europe, while their voyages are expected to last approx. 7 days. At the moment most inquiries are Handy-based due to the shallow draft of ports in the Black Sea area and the short distance that needs to be covered. Given the limited duration of the agreement, it is expected that most inquiries will be for short-period time-charters for these particular routes. If the agreement is extended and more shipments will head to Asia, primarily S. Korea and China, there will be increased demand for period charters and for bigger vessels.
Congestion is expected to increase in Ukrainian ports as they have been un-operational and un-manned since the beginning of the war and their infrastructures might have been damaged. However, at the moment the discharge rate is relatively rapid given the small number of vessels in the area. Vessels that will bear increased voyage risk will require insurance premiums resulting in higher voyage expenses. Shipowners’ biggest impediment is to secure insurance for their vessels and cargoes and to find crew to sail their ships. On the other hand, this means that freights will move upwards in order to compensate for the extra risk.
As per the latest update of Ukraine’s Ministry of Agriculture on July 31st, the country’s wheat exports have been down -53.2% y-o-y, while the market outlook for next year’s wheat crop remains bearish. Another downside factor is the quality of the grains that have been loaded in vessels for months under increased humidity and inadequate ventilation. There is a high risk that cargoes that have not been freshly loaded will be rejected by the importers if they do not meet specific requirements.
Under the current circumstances, there are several challenges lying ahead that create doubts on whether the exports could fully or at least partially recover. Given that the situation worsens around the Black Sea area and the materialized deal will be undermined, a further downside for grain trade is more likely within 2H2022. On the contrary, if the operation continues relatively smoothly, the world grain trade could see relief within 2H2022 as a result of an increase in tonne-days demand, while Ukraine could receive up to $1bn/month from its grain exports in order to fund its sowing plans.
By Chara Georgousi
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Thursday, 26 May 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
The newbuilding market activity has been significantly positive from a dry bulk owner perspective during the first half of 2022. Indeed, the contra ...
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INDONESIAN COAL PRICE REFERENCE DROPPED 4.42% IN MAY
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Thursday, 12 May 22
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Wednesday, 27 April 22
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It followed Mainla ...
Tuesday, 26 April 22
CHINA'S APPETITE FOR BAUXITE HITS NEW RECORD AS Q1 IMPORTS JUMP 15.4% Y/Y - BIMCO
Bauxite shipments arriving in China hit new record levels in the first quarter of 2022 and grew at an average annual rate of 12.8% between 2017 and ...
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- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
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- Planning Commission, India
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- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
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- The Treasury - Australian Government
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- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
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- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
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- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
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- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
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- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
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- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
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- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Australian Coal Association
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
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- VISA Power Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
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