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Thursday, 11 August 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 On July 22nd, Ukraine signed a deal with Russia to release 22mn tons of grain from Ukraine’s 3 major ports (Yuzhny, Chornomorsk, Odesa). Such an agreement is anticipated to soften grain prices as an immediate response to the increase in global supplies. But it is also anticipated to offer relief to grain mills, in an effort to ensure limited rotting of the current harvest and rapidly free up silos for the next season’s harvest. However, after the deal, a myriad of challenges are left to resolve before exports can ramp up, therefore nothing ensures that exports will pick up in the near term.
On August 1st, the first ship loaded with 26,000 tons of corn departed from Ukraine for Lebanon, marking a resume of Ukraine grain exports. Since then, and at the time of writing, a total of 12 vessels have departed from Ukrainian ports carrying 374,800 tons of agriculture-related merchandise, which is still a fraction of the 22mn tonnes of trapped grain in the country. Ukraine anticipates the number of vessels to pick up grains will be increased to reach full capacity within the following weeks. Given the exports continue successfully, they could increase as much as 3mn tons/month in 4-6 weeks.
In order to ship a total of 22mn tonnes of grains, it is estimated that approx. 371 loadings in 40,000-69,000dwt size vessels will be needed. The vessels will cover routes from the Black Sea to North Africa, the Middle East, and potentially Europe, while their voyages are expected to last approx. 7 days. At the moment most inquiries are Handy-based due to the shallow draft of ports in the Black Sea area and the short distance that needs to be covered. Given the limited duration of the agreement, it is expected that most inquiries will be for short-period time-charters for these particular routes. If the agreement is extended and more shipments will head to Asia, primarily S. Korea and China, there will be increased demand for period charters and for bigger vessels.
Congestion is expected to increase in Ukrainian ports as they have been un-operational and un-manned since the beginning of the war and their infrastructures might have been damaged. However, at the moment the discharge rate is relatively rapid given the small number of vessels in the area. Vessels that will bear increased voyage risk will require insurance premiums resulting in higher voyage expenses. Shipowners’ biggest impediment is to secure insurance for their vessels and cargoes and to find crew to sail their ships. On the other hand, this means that freights will move upwards in order to compensate for the extra risk.
As per the latest update of Ukraine’s Ministry of Agriculture on July 31st, the country’s wheat exports have been down -53.2% y-o-y, while the market outlook for next year’s wheat crop remains bearish. Another downside factor is the quality of the grains that have been loaded in vessels for months under increased humidity and inadequate ventilation. There is a high risk that cargoes that have not been freshly loaded will be rejected by the importers if they do not meet specific requirements.
Under the current circumstances, there are several challenges lying ahead that create doubts on whether the exports could fully or at least partially recover. Given that the situation worsens around the Black Sea area and the materialized deal will be undermined, a further downside for grain trade is more likely within 2H2022. On the contrary, if the operation continues relatively smoothly, the world grain trade could see relief within 2H2022 as a result of an increase in tonne-days demand, while Ukraine could receive up to $1bn/month from its grain exports in order to fund its sowing plans.
By Chara Georgousi
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Thursday, 30 June 22
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Thursday, 30 June 22
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The investment ...
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- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- White Energy Company Limited
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- The University of Queensland
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- PTC India Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
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