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Thursday, 11 August 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 On July 22nd, Ukraine signed a deal with Russia to release 22mn tons of grain from Ukraine’s 3 major ports (Yuzhny, Chornomorsk, Odesa). Such an agreement is anticipated to soften grain prices as an immediate response to the increase in global supplies. But it is also anticipated to offer relief to grain mills, in an effort to ensure limited rotting of the current harvest and rapidly free up silos for the next season’s harvest. However, after the deal, a myriad of challenges are left to resolve before exports can ramp up, therefore nothing ensures that exports will pick up in the near term.
On August 1st, the first ship loaded with 26,000 tons of corn departed from Ukraine for Lebanon, marking a resume of Ukraine grain exports. Since then, and at the time of writing, a total of 12 vessels have departed from Ukrainian ports carrying 374,800 tons of agriculture-related merchandise, which is still a fraction of the 22mn tonnes of trapped grain in the country. Ukraine anticipates the number of vessels to pick up grains will be increased to reach full capacity within the following weeks. Given the exports continue successfully, they could increase as much as 3mn tons/month in 4-6 weeks.
In order to ship a total of 22mn tonnes of grains, it is estimated that approx. 371 loadings in 40,000-69,000dwt size vessels will be needed. The vessels will cover routes from the Black Sea to North Africa, the Middle East, and potentially Europe, while their voyages are expected to last approx. 7 days. At the moment most inquiries are Handy-based due to the shallow draft of ports in the Black Sea area and the short distance that needs to be covered. Given the limited duration of the agreement, it is expected that most inquiries will be for short-period time-charters for these particular routes. If the agreement is extended and more shipments will head to Asia, primarily S. Korea and China, there will be increased demand for period charters and for bigger vessels.
Congestion is expected to increase in Ukrainian ports as they have been un-operational and un-manned since the beginning of the war and their infrastructures might have been damaged. However, at the moment the discharge rate is relatively rapid given the small number of vessels in the area. Vessels that will bear increased voyage risk will require insurance premiums resulting in higher voyage expenses. Shipowners’ biggest impediment is to secure insurance for their vessels and cargoes and to find crew to sail their ships. On the other hand, this means that freights will move upwards in order to compensate for the extra risk.
As per the latest update of Ukraine’s Ministry of Agriculture on July 31st, the country’s wheat exports have been down -53.2% y-o-y, while the market outlook for next year’s wheat crop remains bearish. Another downside factor is the quality of the grains that have been loaded in vessels for months under increased humidity and inadequate ventilation. There is a high risk that cargoes that have not been freshly loaded will be rejected by the importers if they do not meet specific requirements.
Under the current circumstances, there are several challenges lying ahead that create doubts on whether the exports could fully or at least partially recover. Given that the situation worsens around the Black Sea area and the materialized deal will be undermined, a further downside for grain trade is more likely within 2H2022. On the contrary, if the operation continues relatively smoothly, the world grain trade could see relief within 2H2022 as a result of an increase in tonne-days demand, while Ukraine could receive up to $1bn/month from its grain exports in order to fund its sowing plans.
By Chara Georgousi
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Wednesday, 06 July 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
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COALspot.com: Indonesian Coal Price Reference for July delivery drops 1.52 per cent month on month.
The Indonesian Coal Price Refere ...
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- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Planning Commission, India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- The University of Queensland
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- VISA Power Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
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