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Thursday, 11 August 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 On July 22nd, Ukraine signed a deal with Russia to release 22mn tons of grain from Ukraine’s 3 major ports (Yuzhny, Chornomorsk, Odesa). Such an agreement is anticipated to soften grain prices as an immediate response to the increase in global supplies. But it is also anticipated to offer relief to grain mills, in an effort to ensure limited rotting of the current harvest and rapidly free up silos for the next season’s harvest. However, after the deal, a myriad of challenges are left to resolve before exports can ramp up, therefore nothing ensures that exports will pick up in the near term.
On August 1st, the first ship loaded with 26,000 tons of corn departed from Ukraine for Lebanon, marking a resume of Ukraine grain exports. Since then, and at the time of writing, a total of 12 vessels have departed from Ukrainian ports carrying 374,800 tons of agriculture-related merchandise, which is still a fraction of the 22mn tonnes of trapped grain in the country. Ukraine anticipates the number of vessels to pick up grains will be increased to reach full capacity within the following weeks. Given the exports continue successfully, they could increase as much as 3mn tons/month in 4-6 weeks.
In order to ship a total of 22mn tonnes of grains, it is estimated that approx. 371 loadings in 40,000-69,000dwt size vessels will be needed. The vessels will cover routes from the Black Sea to North Africa, the Middle East, and potentially Europe, while their voyages are expected to last approx. 7 days. At the moment most inquiries are Handy-based due to the shallow draft of ports in the Black Sea area and the short distance that needs to be covered. Given the limited duration of the agreement, it is expected that most inquiries will be for short-period time-charters for these particular routes. If the agreement is extended and more shipments will head to Asia, primarily S. Korea and China, there will be increased demand for period charters and for bigger vessels.
Congestion is expected to increase in Ukrainian ports as they have been un-operational and un-manned since the beginning of the war and their infrastructures might have been damaged. However, at the moment the discharge rate is relatively rapid given the small number of vessels in the area. Vessels that will bear increased voyage risk will require insurance premiums resulting in higher voyage expenses. Shipowners’ biggest impediment is to secure insurance for their vessels and cargoes and to find crew to sail their ships. On the other hand, this means that freights will move upwards in order to compensate for the extra risk.
As per the latest update of Ukraine’s Ministry of Agriculture on July 31st, the country’s wheat exports have been down -53.2% y-o-y, while the market outlook for next year’s wheat crop remains bearish. Another downside factor is the quality of the grains that have been loaded in vessels for months under increased humidity and inadequate ventilation. There is a high risk that cargoes that have not been freshly loaded will be rejected by the importers if they do not meet specific requirements.
Under the current circumstances, there are several challenges lying ahead that create doubts on whether the exports could fully or at least partially recover. Given that the situation worsens around the Black Sea area and the materialized deal will be undermined, a further downside for grain trade is more likely within 2H2022. On the contrary, if the operation continues relatively smoothly, the world grain trade could see relief within 2H2022 as a result of an increase in tonne-days demand, while Ukraine could receive up to $1bn/month from its grain exports in order to fund its sowing plans.
By Chara Georgousi
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Sunday, 03 July 22
CHINESE VICE PREMIER STRESSES CLEAN, EFFICIENT USE OF COAL - XINHUA
Chinese Vice Premier Han Zheng has stressed efforts to promote the clean and efficient use of coal, and pursue green, low-carbon and high-quality d ...
Sunday, 03 July 22
SOVEREIGN SECTOR OUTLOOK REVISED TO NEUTRAL ON UKRAINE WAR IMPACT - FITCH RATINGS
The deterioration in global sovereign credit conditions this year relative to our expectations at end-2021 has caused Fitch Ratings to change its g ...
Saturday, 02 July 22
GLOBAL SEABORNE COAL EXPORTS IN 2021 INCREASED BY 4.4% Y-O-Y TO 1147 MLN TONNES - BANCHERO COSTA
In the full 12 months of 2021, global seaborne coal exports increased by +4.4% y-o-y to 1147 mln tonnes, from 1099 mln tonnes in 2020, according to ...
Friday, 01 July 22
INDIA'S TOP CEMENT MAKER PAYING FOR RUSSIAN COAL IN CHINESE YUAN - REUTERS
India’s biggest cement producer, UltraTech Cement ULTC.NS, is importing a cargo of Russian coal and paying using Chinese yuan, according to a ...
Thursday, 30 June 22
FINANCIAL GAINS SUPPORT COAL TRANSITION - BALTIC EXCHANGE
Support for the shift away from coal dependency continues to mount, with the International Monetary Fund (IMF) calculating that the move would gene ...
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- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- The University of Queensland
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- PTC India Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Planning Commission, India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
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