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Thursday, 11 August 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 On July 22nd, Ukraine signed a deal with Russia to release 22mn tons of grain from Ukraine’s 3 major ports (Yuzhny, Chornomorsk, Odesa). Such an agreement is anticipated to soften grain prices as an immediate response to the increase in global supplies. But it is also anticipated to offer relief to grain mills, in an effort to ensure limited rotting of the current harvest and rapidly free up silos for the next season’s harvest. However, after the deal, a myriad of challenges are left to resolve before exports can ramp up, therefore nothing ensures that exports will pick up in the near term.
On August 1st, the first ship loaded with 26,000 tons of corn departed from Ukraine for Lebanon, marking a resume of Ukraine grain exports. Since then, and at the time of writing, a total of 12 vessels have departed from Ukrainian ports carrying 374,800 tons of agriculture-related merchandise, which is still a fraction of the 22mn tonnes of trapped grain in the country. Ukraine anticipates the number of vessels to pick up grains will be increased to reach full capacity within the following weeks. Given the exports continue successfully, they could increase as much as 3mn tons/month in 4-6 weeks.
In order to ship a total of 22mn tonnes of grains, it is estimated that approx. 371 loadings in 40,000-69,000dwt size vessels will be needed. The vessels will cover routes from the Black Sea to North Africa, the Middle East, and potentially Europe, while their voyages are expected to last approx. 7 days. At the moment most inquiries are Handy-based due to the shallow draft of ports in the Black Sea area and the short distance that needs to be covered. Given the limited duration of the agreement, it is expected that most inquiries will be for short-period time-charters for these particular routes. If the agreement is extended and more shipments will head to Asia, primarily S. Korea and China, there will be increased demand for period charters and for bigger vessels.
Congestion is expected to increase in Ukrainian ports as they have been un-operational and un-manned since the beginning of the war and their infrastructures might have been damaged. However, at the moment the discharge rate is relatively rapid given the small number of vessels in the area. Vessels that will bear increased voyage risk will require insurance premiums resulting in higher voyage expenses. Shipowners’ biggest impediment is to secure insurance for their vessels and cargoes and to find crew to sail their ships. On the other hand, this means that freights will move upwards in order to compensate for the extra risk.
As per the latest update of Ukraine’s Ministry of Agriculture on July 31st, the country’s wheat exports have been down -53.2% y-o-y, while the market outlook for next year’s wheat crop remains bearish. Another downside factor is the quality of the grains that have been loaded in vessels for months under increased humidity and inadequate ventilation. There is a high risk that cargoes that have not been freshly loaded will be rejected by the importers if they do not meet specific requirements.
Under the current circumstances, there are several challenges lying ahead that create doubts on whether the exports could fully or at least partially recover. Given that the situation worsens around the Black Sea area and the materialized deal will be undermined, a further downside for grain trade is more likely within 2H2022. On the contrary, if the operation continues relatively smoothly, the world grain trade could see relief within 2H2022 as a result of an increase in tonne-days demand, while Ukraine could receive up to $1bn/month from its grain exports in order to fund its sowing plans.
By Chara Georgousi
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Wednesday, 29 June 22
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AIMTEK INTERNATIONAL CONFERENCE AND AWARDS
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- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
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- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Minerals Council of Australia
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- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
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- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
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- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Posco Energy - South Korea
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- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
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- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
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- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
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- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
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- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
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- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
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- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
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- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
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- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- The University of Queensland
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
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- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
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- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
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- India Bulls Power Limited - India
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- White Energy Company Limited
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