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Thursday, 11 August 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 On July 22nd, Ukraine signed a deal with Russia to release 22mn tons of grain from Ukraine’s 3 major ports (Yuzhny, Chornomorsk, Odesa). Such an agreement is anticipated to soften grain prices as an immediate response to the increase in global supplies. But it is also anticipated to offer relief to grain mills, in an effort to ensure limited rotting of the current harvest and rapidly free up silos for the next season’s harvest. However, after the deal, a myriad of challenges are left to resolve before exports can ramp up, therefore nothing ensures that exports will pick up in the near term.
On August 1st, the first ship loaded with 26,000 tons of corn departed from Ukraine for Lebanon, marking a resume of Ukraine grain exports. Since then, and at the time of writing, a total of 12 vessels have departed from Ukrainian ports carrying 374,800 tons of agriculture-related merchandise, which is still a fraction of the 22mn tonnes of trapped grain in the country. Ukraine anticipates the number of vessels to pick up grains will be increased to reach full capacity within the following weeks. Given the exports continue successfully, they could increase as much as 3mn tons/month in 4-6 weeks.
In order to ship a total of 22mn tonnes of grains, it is estimated that approx. 371 loadings in 40,000-69,000dwt size vessels will be needed. The vessels will cover routes from the Black Sea to North Africa, the Middle East, and potentially Europe, while their voyages are expected to last approx. 7 days. At the moment most inquiries are Handy-based due to the shallow draft of ports in the Black Sea area and the short distance that needs to be covered. Given the limited duration of the agreement, it is expected that most inquiries will be for short-period time-charters for these particular routes. If the agreement is extended and more shipments will head to Asia, primarily S. Korea and China, there will be increased demand for period charters and for bigger vessels.
Congestion is expected to increase in Ukrainian ports as they have been un-operational and un-manned since the beginning of the war and their infrastructures might have been damaged. However, at the moment the discharge rate is relatively rapid given the small number of vessels in the area. Vessels that will bear increased voyage risk will require insurance premiums resulting in higher voyage expenses. Shipowners’ biggest impediment is to secure insurance for their vessels and cargoes and to find crew to sail their ships. On the other hand, this means that freights will move upwards in order to compensate for the extra risk.
As per the latest update of Ukraine’s Ministry of Agriculture on July 31st, the country’s wheat exports have been down -53.2% y-o-y, while the market outlook for next year’s wheat crop remains bearish. Another downside factor is the quality of the grains that have been loaded in vessels for months under increased humidity and inadequate ventilation. There is a high risk that cargoes that have not been freshly loaded will be rejected by the importers if they do not meet specific requirements.
Under the current circumstances, there are several challenges lying ahead that create doubts on whether the exports could fully or at least partially recover. Given that the situation worsens around the Black Sea area and the materialized deal will be undermined, a further downside for grain trade is more likely within 2H2022. On the contrary, if the operation continues relatively smoothly, the world grain trade could see relief within 2H2022 as a result of an increase in tonne-days demand, while Ukraine could receive up to $1bn/month from its grain exports in order to fund its sowing plans.
By Chara Georgousi
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Tuesday, 26 April 22
INDIA'S COAL IMPORTS ARE SHIFTING, THERMAL MORE THAN COKING - REUTERS
India’s coal imports are starting to reflect shifting world trade and pricing dynamics in the wake of Russia’s invasion of neighbouring ...
Monday, 18 April 22
GERMAN COAL IMPORTERS EXPECT A BRIEF SPIKE IN PRICES ON EU BAN - REUTERS
A European Union embargo on Russian coal imports will push up prices in the short term before alternative supplies become available to steady the c ...
Monday, 18 April 22
FINNISH 'LOOPHOLES' ALLOW IMPORTS OF RUSSIAN COAL AND OIL TO CONTINUE - EURONEWS
Activists in Finland are calling for the government to clamp down faster on state-owned companies that continue to import raw materials from Russia ...
Monday, 18 April 22
GOVT IN DISCUSSION WITH WORLD BANK ON FRAMEWORK FOR COAL MINE CLOSURE - BUSINESS STANDARD
The coal ministry is in discussions with the World Bank for collaboration on the mine closure framework, a government official said on Wednesday.
...
Monday, 18 April 22
DEMAND FOR THERMAL COAL TO RISE DUE TO INCREASE IN ELECTRICITY DEMAND: INDIAN COAL MINISTRY - PTI
Coal block allocatees have a golden opportunity to augment production as the demand for thermal coal will rise due to an increase in electricity de ...
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- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
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- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- White Energy Company Limited
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
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- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
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- CNBM International Corporation - China
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- Planning Commission, India
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- Parliament of New Zealand
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- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
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- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
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- VISA Power Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
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- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
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