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Thursday, 11 August 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 On July 22nd, Ukraine signed a deal with Russia to release 22mn tons of grain from Ukraine’s 3 major ports (Yuzhny, Chornomorsk, Odesa). Such an agreement is anticipated to soften grain prices as an immediate response to the increase in global supplies. But it is also anticipated to offer relief to grain mills, in an effort to ensure limited rotting of the current harvest and rapidly free up silos for the next season’s harvest. However, after the deal, a myriad of challenges are left to resolve before exports can ramp up, therefore nothing ensures that exports will pick up in the near term.
On August 1st, the first ship loaded with 26,000 tons of corn departed from Ukraine for Lebanon, marking a resume of Ukraine grain exports. Since then, and at the time of writing, a total of 12 vessels have departed from Ukrainian ports carrying 374,800 tons of agriculture-related merchandise, which is still a fraction of the 22mn tonnes of trapped grain in the country. Ukraine anticipates the number of vessels to pick up grains will be increased to reach full capacity within the following weeks. Given the exports continue successfully, they could increase as much as 3mn tons/month in 4-6 weeks.
In order to ship a total of 22mn tonnes of grains, it is estimated that approx. 371 loadings in 40,000-69,000dwt size vessels will be needed. The vessels will cover routes from the Black Sea to North Africa, the Middle East, and potentially Europe, while their voyages are expected to last approx. 7 days. At the moment most inquiries are Handy-based due to the shallow draft of ports in the Black Sea area and the short distance that needs to be covered. Given the limited duration of the agreement, it is expected that most inquiries will be for short-period time-charters for these particular routes. If the agreement is extended and more shipments will head to Asia, primarily S. Korea and China, there will be increased demand for period charters and for bigger vessels.
Congestion is expected to increase in Ukrainian ports as they have been un-operational and un-manned since the beginning of the war and their infrastructures might have been damaged. However, at the moment the discharge rate is relatively rapid given the small number of vessels in the area. Vessels that will bear increased voyage risk will require insurance premiums resulting in higher voyage expenses. Shipowners’ biggest impediment is to secure insurance for their vessels and cargoes and to find crew to sail their ships. On the other hand, this means that freights will move upwards in order to compensate for the extra risk.
As per the latest update of Ukraine’s Ministry of Agriculture on July 31st, the country’s wheat exports have been down -53.2% y-o-y, while the market outlook for next year’s wheat crop remains bearish. Another downside factor is the quality of the grains that have been loaded in vessels for months under increased humidity and inadequate ventilation. There is a high risk that cargoes that have not been freshly loaded will be rejected by the importers if they do not meet specific requirements.
Under the current circumstances, there are several challenges lying ahead that create doubts on whether the exports could fully or at least partially recover. Given that the situation worsens around the Black Sea area and the materialized deal will be undermined, a further downside for grain trade is more likely within 2H2022. On the contrary, if the operation continues relatively smoothly, the world grain trade could see relief within 2H2022 as a result of an increase in tonne-days demand, while Ukraine could receive up to $1bn/month from its grain exports in order to fund its sowing plans.
By Chara Georgousi
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Friday, 08 July 22
AUSTRALIAN COAL PRICE BREAKS AGAIN LEVEL US$ 400/TON!, UP AROUND 4% - CNBC INDONESIA
Coal prices shot up again and crossed the level of US$ 400 per ton. On Thursday (7/7/2022) trading, the selling price of August contract closed at ...
Friday, 08 July 22
INDONESIA MULLS MORE FREQUENT SETTING OF CRUDE PALM OIL REFERENCE PRICE - REUTERS
Indonesia is considering setting its crude palm oil (CPO) export reference price every two weeks instead of monthly, a senior trade ministry offici ...
Friday, 08 July 22
BUNKER PRICES EXPECTED TO RECOVER LOST GROUND NEXT WEEK - SERGEY IVANOV, MABUX
Over the Week 27, the world bunker indices showed a sharp decline, primarily due to the fall in oil prices on July 05. The 380 HSFO index fell by 5 ...
Thursday, 07 July 22
NTPC MINES 61% MORE COAL AT 4.22 MN METRIC TONNES IN APRIL-JUNE: PTI
State-owned power giant NTPC on Tuesday said that its coal output grew by 61 per cent to Rs 42.40 lakh metric tonnes in April-June quarter from 26. ...
Thursday, 07 July 22
COAL INDIA'S PRODUCTION SETS RECORD INCREASE OF 29% YOY AT 36 MT IN Q1FY23 - IIFL SECURITIES
Coal India Limited (CIL) has ended April-June quarter FY’23 capping a historic high of 29% yoy output growth, compared to same quarter FY&rsq ...
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- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Australian Coal Association
- PTC India Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
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