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Thursday, 11 August 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 On July 22nd, Ukraine signed a deal with Russia to release 22mn tons of grain from Ukraine’s 3 major ports (Yuzhny, Chornomorsk, Odesa). Such an agreement is anticipated to soften grain prices as an immediate response to the increase in global supplies. But it is also anticipated to offer relief to grain mills, in an effort to ensure limited rotting of the current harvest and rapidly free up silos for the next season’s harvest. However, after the deal, a myriad of challenges are left to resolve before exports can ramp up, therefore nothing ensures that exports will pick up in the near term.
On August 1st, the first ship loaded with 26,000 tons of corn departed from Ukraine for Lebanon, marking a resume of Ukraine grain exports. Since then, and at the time of writing, a total of 12 vessels have departed from Ukrainian ports carrying 374,800 tons of agriculture-related merchandise, which is still a fraction of the 22mn tonnes of trapped grain in the country. Ukraine anticipates the number of vessels to pick up grains will be increased to reach full capacity within the following weeks. Given the exports continue successfully, they could increase as much as 3mn tons/month in 4-6 weeks.
In order to ship a total of 22mn tonnes of grains, it is estimated that approx. 371 loadings in 40,000-69,000dwt size vessels will be needed. The vessels will cover routes from the Black Sea to North Africa, the Middle East, and potentially Europe, while their voyages are expected to last approx. 7 days. At the moment most inquiries are Handy-based due to the shallow draft of ports in the Black Sea area and the short distance that needs to be covered. Given the limited duration of the agreement, it is expected that most inquiries will be for short-period time-charters for these particular routes. If the agreement is extended and more shipments will head to Asia, primarily S. Korea and China, there will be increased demand for period charters and for bigger vessels.
Congestion is expected to increase in Ukrainian ports as they have been un-operational and un-manned since the beginning of the war and their infrastructures might have been damaged. However, at the moment the discharge rate is relatively rapid given the small number of vessels in the area. Vessels that will bear increased voyage risk will require insurance premiums resulting in higher voyage expenses. Shipowners’ biggest impediment is to secure insurance for their vessels and cargoes and to find crew to sail their ships. On the other hand, this means that freights will move upwards in order to compensate for the extra risk.
As per the latest update of Ukraine’s Ministry of Agriculture on July 31st, the country’s wheat exports have been down -53.2% y-o-y, while the market outlook for next year’s wheat crop remains bearish. Another downside factor is the quality of the grains that have been loaded in vessels for months under increased humidity and inadequate ventilation. There is a high risk that cargoes that have not been freshly loaded will be rejected by the importers if they do not meet specific requirements.
Under the current circumstances, there are several challenges lying ahead that create doubts on whether the exports could fully or at least partially recover. Given that the situation worsens around the Black Sea area and the materialized deal will be undermined, a further downside for grain trade is more likely within 2H2022. On the contrary, if the operation continues relatively smoothly, the world grain trade could see relief within 2H2022 as a result of an increase in tonne-days demand, while Ukraine could receive up to $1bn/month from its grain exports in order to fund its sowing plans.
By Chara Georgousi
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Thursday, 14 July 22
INDIA'S COAL IMPORTS HIT RECORD HIGH IN JUNE - REUTERS
India's coal imports hit a record high in June despite high global prices, data from three trade sources and Refinitiv ship tracking showed, as ...
Thursday, 14 July 22
CHINA'S JUNE COAL IMPORTS SLUMP AS TRADERS SHUN EXPENSIVE OVERSEAS CARGOES - REUTERS
China’s coal imports fell 33% in June from a year ago, with traders turning down expensive overseas cargoes in favor of domestic ones with ca ...
Wednesday, 13 July 22
KOWEPO TO IMPORT 2.79 MILLION TONS OF LOW TO MEDIUM COAL
COALspot.com: Korea Western Power Co., Ltd. (KOWEPO) has issued an International tender for Total 1360k MT of Min.4400 kcal/kg NCV coal and Total 1 ...
Wednesday, 13 July 22
HAVE MINERS MISSED THE BOAT TO INVEST AND GET AHEAD OF THE ENERGY TRANSITION? - WOOD MACKENZIE
Miners are in rude health, benefiting from economic stimuli, the post-pandemic recovery and associated supply constraints. Initially the Ukraine wa ...
Wednesday, 13 July 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
Taking the previous market insight a step further, market sentiment remains bullish regarding the overall ROI of scrubbers, facing tailwinds from a ...
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- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- White Energy Company Limited
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Australian Coal Association
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
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