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Thursday, 11 August 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 On July 22nd, Ukraine signed a deal with Russia to release 22mn tons of grain from Ukraine’s 3 major ports (Yuzhny, Chornomorsk, Odesa). Such an agreement is anticipated to soften grain prices as an immediate response to the increase in global supplies. But it is also anticipated to offer relief to grain mills, in an effort to ensure limited rotting of the current harvest and rapidly free up silos for the next season’s harvest. However, after the deal, a myriad of challenges are left to resolve before exports can ramp up, therefore nothing ensures that exports will pick up in the near term.
On August 1st, the first ship loaded with 26,000 tons of corn departed from Ukraine for Lebanon, marking a resume of Ukraine grain exports. Since then, and at the time of writing, a total of 12 vessels have departed from Ukrainian ports carrying 374,800 tons of agriculture-related merchandise, which is still a fraction of the 22mn tonnes of trapped grain in the country. Ukraine anticipates the number of vessels to pick up grains will be increased to reach full capacity within the following weeks. Given the exports continue successfully, they could increase as much as 3mn tons/month in 4-6 weeks.
In order to ship a total of 22mn tonnes of grains, it is estimated that approx. 371 loadings in 40,000-69,000dwt size vessels will be needed. The vessels will cover routes from the Black Sea to North Africa, the Middle East, and potentially Europe, while their voyages are expected to last approx. 7 days. At the moment most inquiries are Handy-based due to the shallow draft of ports in the Black Sea area and the short distance that needs to be covered. Given the limited duration of the agreement, it is expected that most inquiries will be for short-period time-charters for these particular routes. If the agreement is extended and more shipments will head to Asia, primarily S. Korea and China, there will be increased demand for period charters and for bigger vessels.
Congestion is expected to increase in Ukrainian ports as they have been un-operational and un-manned since the beginning of the war and their infrastructures might have been damaged. However, at the moment the discharge rate is relatively rapid given the small number of vessels in the area. Vessels that will bear increased voyage risk will require insurance premiums resulting in higher voyage expenses. Shipowners’ biggest impediment is to secure insurance for their vessels and cargoes and to find crew to sail their ships. On the other hand, this means that freights will move upwards in order to compensate for the extra risk.
As per the latest update of Ukraine’s Ministry of Agriculture on July 31st, the country’s wheat exports have been down -53.2% y-o-y, while the market outlook for next year’s wheat crop remains bearish. Another downside factor is the quality of the grains that have been loaded in vessels for months under increased humidity and inadequate ventilation. There is a high risk that cargoes that have not been freshly loaded will be rejected by the importers if they do not meet specific requirements.
Under the current circumstances, there are several challenges lying ahead that create doubts on whether the exports could fully or at least partially recover. Given that the situation worsens around the Black Sea area and the materialized deal will be undermined, a further downside for grain trade is more likely within 2H2022. On the contrary, if the operation continues relatively smoothly, the world grain trade could see relief within 2H2022 as a result of an increase in tonne-days demand, while Ukraine could receive up to $1bn/month from its grain exports in order to fund its sowing plans.
By Chara Georgousi
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Planning Commission, India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- The University of Queensland
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
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