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Thursday, 11 August 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 On July 22nd, Ukraine signed a deal with Russia to release 22mn tons of grain from Ukraine’s 3 major ports (Yuzhny, Chornomorsk, Odesa). Such an agreement is anticipated to soften grain prices as an immediate response to the increase in global supplies. But it is also anticipated to offer relief to grain mills, in an effort to ensure limited rotting of the current harvest and rapidly free up silos for the next season’s harvest. However, after the deal, a myriad of challenges are left to resolve before exports can ramp up, therefore nothing ensures that exports will pick up in the near term.
On August 1st, the first ship loaded with 26,000 tons of corn departed from Ukraine for Lebanon, marking a resume of Ukraine grain exports. Since then, and at the time of writing, a total of 12 vessels have departed from Ukrainian ports carrying 374,800 tons of agriculture-related merchandise, which is still a fraction of the 22mn tonnes of trapped grain in the country. Ukraine anticipates the number of vessels to pick up grains will be increased to reach full capacity within the following weeks. Given the exports continue successfully, they could increase as much as 3mn tons/month in 4-6 weeks.
In order to ship a total of 22mn tonnes of grains, it is estimated that approx. 371 loadings in 40,000-69,000dwt size vessels will be needed. The vessels will cover routes from the Black Sea to North Africa, the Middle East, and potentially Europe, while their voyages are expected to last approx. 7 days. At the moment most inquiries are Handy-based due to the shallow draft of ports in the Black Sea area and the short distance that needs to be covered. Given the limited duration of the agreement, it is expected that most inquiries will be for short-period time-charters for these particular routes. If the agreement is extended and more shipments will head to Asia, primarily S. Korea and China, there will be increased demand for period charters and for bigger vessels.
Congestion is expected to increase in Ukrainian ports as they have been un-operational and un-manned since the beginning of the war and their infrastructures might have been damaged. However, at the moment the discharge rate is relatively rapid given the small number of vessels in the area. Vessels that will bear increased voyage risk will require insurance premiums resulting in higher voyage expenses. Shipowners’ biggest impediment is to secure insurance for their vessels and cargoes and to find crew to sail their ships. On the other hand, this means that freights will move upwards in order to compensate for the extra risk.
As per the latest update of Ukraine’s Ministry of Agriculture on July 31st, the country’s wheat exports have been down -53.2% y-o-y, while the market outlook for next year’s wheat crop remains bearish. Another downside factor is the quality of the grains that have been loaded in vessels for months under increased humidity and inadequate ventilation. There is a high risk that cargoes that have not been freshly loaded will be rejected by the importers if they do not meet specific requirements.
Under the current circumstances, there are several challenges lying ahead that create doubts on whether the exports could fully or at least partially recover. Given that the situation worsens around the Black Sea area and the materialized deal will be undermined, a further downside for grain trade is more likely within 2H2022. On the contrary, if the operation continues relatively smoothly, the world grain trade could see relief within 2H2022 as a result of an increase in tonne-days demand, while Ukraine could receive up to $1bn/month from its grain exports in order to fund its sowing plans.
By Chara Georgousi
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Tuesday, 26 July 22
WILL SOUTH AMERICA’S WINTER DEMAND DRAW LNG CARGOES AWAY FROM EUROPE? - ICIS
South America is now in the middle of its winter demand season. Last year the region increased its share of global LNG imports in winter, with Braz ...
Monday, 25 July 22
GLOBAL 2021 COAL-FIRED ELECTRICITY GENERATION SURGES TO RECORD HIGH - REUTERS
By contrast, mine output was still fractionally below the record set between 2012 and 2014 because older and less efficient coal generators have be ...
Saturday, 23 July 22
THE EU HAS BEEN REDUCING IMPORTS OF RUSSIAN REFINED OIL PRODUCTS SINCE MARCH - BANCHERO COSTA
The European Union could now ban the import and transit of fuel oil from Russia around six months ahead of the planned deadline, an EU official and ...
Saturday, 23 July 22
INDONESIA CONSIDERING SCRAPPING DOMESTIC SALES RULE FOR PALM OIL EXPORTS - REUTERS
Indonesia is considering removing a domestic sales requirement for palm oil exports because high inventories of the vegetable oil have been holding ...
Saturday, 23 July 22
STABILITY OF RUSSIAN GAS FLOWS REMAIN UNCERTAIN, DESPITE THE REOPENING OF NORD STREAM - WOOD MACKENZIE
Gazprom confirmed today that regular annual maintenance of Nord Stream is officially over and gas flows restarted at 63 million cubic metres per da ...
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- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Australian Coal Association
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- PTC India Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- The University of Queensland
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
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