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Thursday, 11 August 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 On July 22nd, Ukraine signed a deal with Russia to release 22mn tons of grain from Ukraine’s 3 major ports (Yuzhny, Chornomorsk, Odesa). Such an agreement is anticipated to soften grain prices as an immediate response to the increase in global supplies. But it is also anticipated to offer relief to grain mills, in an effort to ensure limited rotting of the current harvest and rapidly free up silos for the next season’s harvest. However, after the deal, a myriad of challenges are left to resolve before exports can ramp up, therefore nothing ensures that exports will pick up in the near term.
On August 1st, the first ship loaded with 26,000 tons of corn departed from Ukraine for Lebanon, marking a resume of Ukraine grain exports. Since then, and at the time of writing, a total of 12 vessels have departed from Ukrainian ports carrying 374,800 tons of agriculture-related merchandise, which is still a fraction of the 22mn tonnes of trapped grain in the country. Ukraine anticipates the number of vessels to pick up grains will be increased to reach full capacity within the following weeks. Given the exports continue successfully, they could increase as much as 3mn tons/month in 4-6 weeks.
In order to ship a total of 22mn tonnes of grains, it is estimated that approx. 371 loadings in 40,000-69,000dwt size vessels will be needed. The vessels will cover routes from the Black Sea to North Africa, the Middle East, and potentially Europe, while their voyages are expected to last approx. 7 days. At the moment most inquiries are Handy-based due to the shallow draft of ports in the Black Sea area and the short distance that needs to be covered. Given the limited duration of the agreement, it is expected that most inquiries will be for short-period time-charters for these particular routes. If the agreement is extended and more shipments will head to Asia, primarily S. Korea and China, there will be increased demand for period charters and for bigger vessels.
Congestion is expected to increase in Ukrainian ports as they have been un-operational and un-manned since the beginning of the war and their infrastructures might have been damaged. However, at the moment the discharge rate is relatively rapid given the small number of vessels in the area. Vessels that will bear increased voyage risk will require insurance premiums resulting in higher voyage expenses. Shipowners’ biggest impediment is to secure insurance for their vessels and cargoes and to find crew to sail their ships. On the other hand, this means that freights will move upwards in order to compensate for the extra risk.
As per the latest update of Ukraine’s Ministry of Agriculture on July 31st, the country’s wheat exports have been down -53.2% y-o-y, while the market outlook for next year’s wheat crop remains bearish. Another downside factor is the quality of the grains that have been loaded in vessels for months under increased humidity and inadequate ventilation. There is a high risk that cargoes that have not been freshly loaded will be rejected by the importers if they do not meet specific requirements.
Under the current circumstances, there are several challenges lying ahead that create doubts on whether the exports could fully or at least partially recover. Given that the situation worsens around the Black Sea area and the materialized deal will be undermined, a further downside for grain trade is more likely within 2H2022. On the contrary, if the operation continues relatively smoothly, the world grain trade could see relief within 2H2022 as a result of an increase in tonne-days demand, while Ukraine could receive up to $1bn/month from its grain exports in order to fund its sowing plans.
By Chara Georgousi
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Saturday, 06 August 22
SUMITOMO Q1 PROFIT RISES 45% ON STRONGER PRICES OF COAL, NICKEL - REUTERS
Japanese trading house Sumitomo Corp 8053.T said on Wednesday its net profit for the April-June quarter rose 45% to a record thanks to higher price ...
Saturday, 06 August 22
GERMANY'S ENERGY U-TURN: COAL INSTEAD OF GAS - DEUTSCHE WELLE
Berlin has realized it will never again import as much energy from Russia as before the Ukraine war. So the challenge is to wean Germany off its de ...
Saturday, 30 July 22
NUANCES OF FORCE MAJEURE CLAUSE - BALTIC EXCHANGE
Knowledge to Elevate
In NKD Maritime Limited v. Bart Maritime (No 2) Inc (Shagang Giant) [2022] EWHC 1615 (Comm), Bart Maritime (No 2) Inc (th ...
Saturday, 30 July 22
AEMO URGES QUICKER SHIFT TO RENEWABLES AMID COAL FAILURES AND SOARING FOSSIL FUEL COSTS
The Australian Energy Market Operator has called for an accelerated shift to wind and solar, backed up by batteries and other storage, as a devasta ...
Friday, 29 July 22
GLENCORE TO SUPPLY COAL TO NIPPON STEEL AT $375 PER TON - BLOOMBERG
Glencore Plc, agreed to supply coal to Nippon Steel at one of the highest prices ever paid by the Japan Bloomberg reported on July 27.
...
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- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Australian Coal Association
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- White Energy Company Limited
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- The University of Queensland
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
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