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Thursday, 11 August 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 On July 22nd, Ukraine signed a deal with Russia to release 22mn tons of grain from Ukraine’s 3 major ports (Yuzhny, Chornomorsk, Odesa). Such an agreement is anticipated to soften grain prices as an immediate response to the increase in global supplies. But it is also anticipated to offer relief to grain mills, in an effort to ensure limited rotting of the current harvest and rapidly free up silos for the next season’s harvest. However, after the deal, a myriad of challenges are left to resolve before exports can ramp up, therefore nothing ensures that exports will pick up in the near term.
On August 1st, the first ship loaded with 26,000 tons of corn departed from Ukraine for Lebanon, marking a resume of Ukraine grain exports. Since then, and at the time of writing, a total of 12 vessels have departed from Ukrainian ports carrying 374,800 tons of agriculture-related merchandise, which is still a fraction of the 22mn tonnes of trapped grain in the country. Ukraine anticipates the number of vessels to pick up grains will be increased to reach full capacity within the following weeks. Given the exports continue successfully, they could increase as much as 3mn tons/month in 4-6 weeks.
In order to ship a total of 22mn tonnes of grains, it is estimated that approx. 371 loadings in 40,000-69,000dwt size vessels will be needed. The vessels will cover routes from the Black Sea to North Africa, the Middle East, and potentially Europe, while their voyages are expected to last approx. 7 days. At the moment most inquiries are Handy-based due to the shallow draft of ports in the Black Sea area and the short distance that needs to be covered. Given the limited duration of the agreement, it is expected that most inquiries will be for short-period time-charters for these particular routes. If the agreement is extended and more shipments will head to Asia, primarily S. Korea and China, there will be increased demand for period charters and for bigger vessels.
Congestion is expected to increase in Ukrainian ports as they have been un-operational and un-manned since the beginning of the war and their infrastructures might have been damaged. However, at the moment the discharge rate is relatively rapid given the small number of vessels in the area. Vessels that will bear increased voyage risk will require insurance premiums resulting in higher voyage expenses. Shipowners’ biggest impediment is to secure insurance for their vessels and cargoes and to find crew to sail their ships. On the other hand, this means that freights will move upwards in order to compensate for the extra risk.
As per the latest update of Ukraine’s Ministry of Agriculture on July 31st, the country’s wheat exports have been down -53.2% y-o-y, while the market outlook for next year’s wheat crop remains bearish. Another downside factor is the quality of the grains that have been loaded in vessels for months under increased humidity and inadequate ventilation. There is a high risk that cargoes that have not been freshly loaded will be rejected by the importers if they do not meet specific requirements.
Under the current circumstances, there are several challenges lying ahead that create doubts on whether the exports could fully or at least partially recover. Given that the situation worsens around the Black Sea area and the materialized deal will be undermined, a further downside for grain trade is more likely within 2H2022. On the contrary, if the operation continues relatively smoothly, the world grain trade could see relief within 2H2022 as a result of an increase in tonne-days demand, while Ukraine could receive up to $1bn/month from its grain exports in order to fund its sowing plans.
By Chara Georgousi
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Saturday, 06 August 22
SUMITOMO Q1 PROFIT RISES 45% ON STRONGER PRICES OF COAL, NICKEL - REUTERS
Japanese trading house Sumitomo Corp 8053.T said on Wednesday its net profit for the April-June quarter rose 45% to a record thanks to higher price ...
Saturday, 06 August 22
GERMANY'S ENERGY U-TURN: COAL INSTEAD OF GAS - DEUTSCHE WELLE
Berlin has realized it will never again import as much energy from Russia as before the Ukraine war. So the challenge is to wean Germany off its de ...
Saturday, 30 July 22
NUANCES OF FORCE MAJEURE CLAUSE - BALTIC EXCHANGE
Knowledge to Elevate
In NKD Maritime Limited v. Bart Maritime (No 2) Inc (Shagang Giant) [2022] EWHC 1615 (Comm), Bart Maritime (No 2) Inc (th ...
Saturday, 30 July 22
AEMO URGES QUICKER SHIFT TO RENEWABLES AMID COAL FAILURES AND SOARING FOSSIL FUEL COSTS
The Australian Energy Market Operator has called for an accelerated shift to wind and solar, backed up by batteries and other storage, as a devasta ...
Friday, 29 July 22
GLENCORE TO SUPPLY COAL TO NIPPON STEEL AT $375 PER TON - BLOOMBERG
Glencore Plc, agreed to supply coal to Nippon Steel at one of the highest prices ever paid by the Japan Bloomberg reported on July 27.
...
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- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- PTC India Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- The University of Queensland
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
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