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Thursday, 11 August 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 On July 22nd, Ukraine signed a deal with Russia to release 22mn tons of grain from Ukraine’s 3 major ports (Yuzhny, Chornomorsk, Odesa). Such an agreement is anticipated to soften grain prices as an immediate response to the increase in global supplies. But it is also anticipated to offer relief to grain mills, in an effort to ensure limited rotting of the current harvest and rapidly free up silos for the next season’s harvest. However, after the deal, a myriad of challenges are left to resolve before exports can ramp up, therefore nothing ensures that exports will pick up in the near term.
On August 1st, the first ship loaded with 26,000 tons of corn departed from Ukraine for Lebanon, marking a resume of Ukraine grain exports. Since then, and at the time of writing, a total of 12 vessels have departed from Ukrainian ports carrying 374,800 tons of agriculture-related merchandise, which is still a fraction of the 22mn tonnes of trapped grain in the country. Ukraine anticipates the number of vessels to pick up grains will be increased to reach full capacity within the following weeks. Given the exports continue successfully, they could increase as much as 3mn tons/month in 4-6 weeks.
In order to ship a total of 22mn tonnes of grains, it is estimated that approx. 371 loadings in 40,000-69,000dwt size vessels will be needed. The vessels will cover routes from the Black Sea to North Africa, the Middle East, and potentially Europe, while their voyages are expected to last approx. 7 days. At the moment most inquiries are Handy-based due to the shallow draft of ports in the Black Sea area and the short distance that needs to be covered. Given the limited duration of the agreement, it is expected that most inquiries will be for short-period time-charters for these particular routes. If the agreement is extended and more shipments will head to Asia, primarily S. Korea and China, there will be increased demand for period charters and for bigger vessels.
Congestion is expected to increase in Ukrainian ports as they have been un-operational and un-manned since the beginning of the war and their infrastructures might have been damaged. However, at the moment the discharge rate is relatively rapid given the small number of vessels in the area. Vessels that will bear increased voyage risk will require insurance premiums resulting in higher voyage expenses. Shipowners’ biggest impediment is to secure insurance for their vessels and cargoes and to find crew to sail their ships. On the other hand, this means that freights will move upwards in order to compensate for the extra risk.
As per the latest update of Ukraine’s Ministry of Agriculture on July 31st, the country’s wheat exports have been down -53.2% y-o-y, while the market outlook for next year’s wheat crop remains bearish. Another downside factor is the quality of the grains that have been loaded in vessels for months under increased humidity and inadequate ventilation. There is a high risk that cargoes that have not been freshly loaded will be rejected by the importers if they do not meet specific requirements.
Under the current circumstances, there are several challenges lying ahead that create doubts on whether the exports could fully or at least partially recover. Given that the situation worsens around the Black Sea area and the materialized deal will be undermined, a further downside for grain trade is more likely within 2H2022. On the contrary, if the operation continues relatively smoothly, the world grain trade could see relief within 2H2022 as a result of an increase in tonne-days demand, while Ukraine could receive up to $1bn/month from its grain exports in order to fund its sowing plans.
By Chara Georgousi
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Wednesday, 17 August 22
CHINA'S COAL-RICH SHANXI MAKES STRIDES IN HIGH-QUALITY DEVELOPMENT - XINHUA
Shanxi, a major coal-producing province in north China, has made continuous advances in high-quality development over the past decade, according to ...
Wednesday, 17 August 22
PAXOCEAN, HONG LAM MARINE AND BUREAU VERITAS SIGN MOU TO DEVELOP AMMONIA BUNKER VESSEL DESIGN - BUREAU VERITAS
PaxOcean Engineering Pte. Ltd. has signed a Memorandum of Understanding (MOU) with Singapore-based bunker vessel operator Hong Lam Marine and class ...
Wednesday, 17 August 22
GOODFUELSS ASIA-PACIFIC BRANCH KICKSTARTS SUSTAINABLE BIOFUEL DELIVERIES WITH NYK AS FIRST CLIENT - GOOD FUELS
GoodFuels, the leading biofuels pioneer for the global transport industry, has today announced that it has successfully supplied sustainable marine ...
Tuesday, 16 August 22
EU BAN ON RUSSIAN COAL IMPORTS COMES INTO FORCE - DEUTSCHE WELLE
The European Union banned Russian coal imports in response to the invasion of Ukraine as part of sanctions in April. Since then, it’s been sc ...
Wednesday, 10 August 22
THE FUTURE OF COAL: EIGHT KEY THEMES FROM THE GLOBAL COAL FORUM - WOOD MACKENZIE
Coal investors face a multi-layered and unavoidable challenge: markets distorted by war, trade constraints and the existential threat of the energy ...
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- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- The University of Queensland
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
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