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Thursday, 11 August 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 On July 22nd, Ukraine signed a deal with Russia to release 22mn tons of grain from Ukraine’s 3 major ports (Yuzhny, Chornomorsk, Odesa). Such an agreement is anticipated to soften grain prices as an immediate response to the increase in global supplies. But it is also anticipated to offer relief to grain mills, in an effort to ensure limited rotting of the current harvest and rapidly free up silos for the next season’s harvest. However, after the deal, a myriad of challenges are left to resolve before exports can ramp up, therefore nothing ensures that exports will pick up in the near term.
On August 1st, the first ship loaded with 26,000 tons of corn departed from Ukraine for Lebanon, marking a resume of Ukraine grain exports. Since then, and at the time of writing, a total of 12 vessels have departed from Ukrainian ports carrying 374,800 tons of agriculture-related merchandise, which is still a fraction of the 22mn tonnes of trapped grain in the country. Ukraine anticipates the number of vessels to pick up grains will be increased to reach full capacity within the following weeks. Given the exports continue successfully, they could increase as much as 3mn tons/month in 4-6 weeks.
In order to ship a total of 22mn tonnes of grains, it is estimated that approx. 371 loadings in 40,000-69,000dwt size vessels will be needed. The vessels will cover routes from the Black Sea to North Africa, the Middle East, and potentially Europe, while their voyages are expected to last approx. 7 days. At the moment most inquiries are Handy-based due to the shallow draft of ports in the Black Sea area and the short distance that needs to be covered. Given the limited duration of the agreement, it is expected that most inquiries will be for short-period time-charters for these particular routes. If the agreement is extended and more shipments will head to Asia, primarily S. Korea and China, there will be increased demand for period charters and for bigger vessels.
Congestion is expected to increase in Ukrainian ports as they have been un-operational and un-manned since the beginning of the war and their infrastructures might have been damaged. However, at the moment the discharge rate is relatively rapid given the small number of vessels in the area. Vessels that will bear increased voyage risk will require insurance premiums resulting in higher voyage expenses. Shipowners’ biggest impediment is to secure insurance for their vessels and cargoes and to find crew to sail their ships. On the other hand, this means that freights will move upwards in order to compensate for the extra risk.
As per the latest update of Ukraine’s Ministry of Agriculture on July 31st, the country’s wheat exports have been down -53.2% y-o-y, while the market outlook for next year’s wheat crop remains bearish. Another downside factor is the quality of the grains that have been loaded in vessels for months under increased humidity and inadequate ventilation. There is a high risk that cargoes that have not been freshly loaded will be rejected by the importers if they do not meet specific requirements.
Under the current circumstances, there are several challenges lying ahead that create doubts on whether the exports could fully or at least partially recover. Given that the situation worsens around the Black Sea area and the materialized deal will be undermined, a further downside for grain trade is more likely within 2H2022. On the contrary, if the operation continues relatively smoothly, the world grain trade could see relief within 2H2022 as a result of an increase in tonne-days demand, while Ukraine could receive up to $1bn/month from its grain exports in order to fund its sowing plans.
By Chara Georgousi
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Wednesday, 17 August 22
CHINA'S COAL-RICH SHANXI MAKES STRIDES IN HIGH-QUALITY DEVELOPMENT - XINHUA
Shanxi, a major coal-producing province in north China, has made continuous advances in high-quality development over the past decade, according to ...
Wednesday, 17 August 22
PAXOCEAN, HONG LAM MARINE AND BUREAU VERITAS SIGN MOU TO DEVELOP AMMONIA BUNKER VESSEL DESIGN - BUREAU VERITAS
PaxOcean Engineering Pte. Ltd. has signed a Memorandum of Understanding (MOU) with Singapore-based bunker vessel operator Hong Lam Marine and class ...
Wednesday, 17 August 22
GOODFUELSS ASIA-PACIFIC BRANCH KICKSTARTS SUSTAINABLE BIOFUEL DELIVERIES WITH NYK AS FIRST CLIENT - GOOD FUELS
GoodFuels, the leading biofuels pioneer for the global transport industry, has today announced that it has successfully supplied sustainable marine ...
Tuesday, 16 August 22
EU BAN ON RUSSIAN COAL IMPORTS COMES INTO FORCE - DEUTSCHE WELLE
The European Union banned Russian coal imports in response to the invasion of Ukraine as part of sanctions in April. Since then, it’s been sc ...
Wednesday, 10 August 22
THE FUTURE OF COAL: EIGHT KEY THEMES FROM THE GLOBAL COAL FORUM - WOOD MACKENZIE
Coal investors face a multi-layered and unavoidable challenge: markets distorted by war, trade constraints and the existential threat of the energy ...
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- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- MS Steel International - UAE
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- The University of Queensland
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Australian Coal Association
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
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