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Thursday, 11 August 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 On July 22nd, Ukraine signed a deal with Russia to release 22mn tons of grain from Ukraine’s 3 major ports (Yuzhny, Chornomorsk, Odesa). Such an agreement is anticipated to soften grain prices as an immediate response to the increase in global supplies. But it is also anticipated to offer relief to grain mills, in an effort to ensure limited rotting of the current harvest and rapidly free up silos for the next season’s harvest. However, after the deal, a myriad of challenges are left to resolve before exports can ramp up, therefore nothing ensures that exports will pick up in the near term.
On August 1st, the first ship loaded with 26,000 tons of corn departed from Ukraine for Lebanon, marking a resume of Ukraine grain exports. Since then, and at the time of writing, a total of 12 vessels have departed from Ukrainian ports carrying 374,800 tons of agriculture-related merchandise, which is still a fraction of the 22mn tonnes of trapped grain in the country. Ukraine anticipates the number of vessels to pick up grains will be increased to reach full capacity within the following weeks. Given the exports continue successfully, they could increase as much as 3mn tons/month in 4-6 weeks.
In order to ship a total of 22mn tonnes of grains, it is estimated that approx. 371 loadings in 40,000-69,000dwt size vessels will be needed. The vessels will cover routes from the Black Sea to North Africa, the Middle East, and potentially Europe, while their voyages are expected to last approx. 7 days. At the moment most inquiries are Handy-based due to the shallow draft of ports in the Black Sea area and the short distance that needs to be covered. Given the limited duration of the agreement, it is expected that most inquiries will be for short-period time-charters for these particular routes. If the agreement is extended and more shipments will head to Asia, primarily S. Korea and China, there will be increased demand for period charters and for bigger vessels.
Congestion is expected to increase in Ukrainian ports as they have been un-operational and un-manned since the beginning of the war and their infrastructures might have been damaged. However, at the moment the discharge rate is relatively rapid given the small number of vessels in the area. Vessels that will bear increased voyage risk will require insurance premiums resulting in higher voyage expenses. Shipowners’ biggest impediment is to secure insurance for their vessels and cargoes and to find crew to sail their ships. On the other hand, this means that freights will move upwards in order to compensate for the extra risk.
As per the latest update of Ukraine’s Ministry of Agriculture on July 31st, the country’s wheat exports have been down -53.2% y-o-y, while the market outlook for next year’s wheat crop remains bearish. Another downside factor is the quality of the grains that have been loaded in vessels for months under increased humidity and inadequate ventilation. There is a high risk that cargoes that have not been freshly loaded will be rejected by the importers if they do not meet specific requirements.
Under the current circumstances, there are several challenges lying ahead that create doubts on whether the exports could fully or at least partially recover. Given that the situation worsens around the Black Sea area and the materialized deal will be undermined, a further downside for grain trade is more likely within 2H2022. On the contrary, if the operation continues relatively smoothly, the world grain trade could see relief within 2H2022 as a result of an increase in tonne-days demand, while Ukraine could receive up to $1bn/month from its grain exports in order to fund its sowing plans.
By Chara Georgousi
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Tuesday, 23 August 22
SHIPPING INDUSTRY TO REMOVE THE INDIAN OCEAN HIGH RISK AREA - BIMCO
After more than a decade of effective threat-reducing counter-piracy operations the shipping industry has removed the ‘Indian Ocean High Risk ...
Tuesday, 23 August 22
SHIPPING: GLOBAL TAX REFORM - WATSON FARLEY & WILLIAMS
OECD rules designed to implement a global minimum corporate tax rate for very large multinational groups have now been published and are expected t ...
Tuesday, 23 August 22
PARTIES CONCLUDE JOINT R&D AGREEMENT FOR WORLD’S FIRST AMMONIA FLOATING STORAGE AND REGASIFICATION BARGE CONTRIBUTING TO PROMOTING THE EARLY INTRODUCTION OF AMMONIA FUEL - NYK
NYK Line, Nihon Shipyard Co., Ltd. (NSY), ClassNK, and IHI Corporation (IHI) signed a joint research and development agreement for the commercializ ...
Monday, 22 August 22
INDONESIAN GOVERNMENT IMPOSED ON NEW PROGRESSIVE ROYALTIES FOR COAL
Indonesian President Joko Widodo has signed a Government Regulation (Number 26 of 2022) on 15 August 2022 related to the progressive royalty rates ...
Monday, 22 August 22
CHINA'S JULY RUSSIAN COAL IMPORTS HIT 5-YR HIGH AS WEST SHUNS MOSCOW - REUTERS
China’s coal imports from Russia jumped 14% in July from a year earlier to their highest in at least five years, as China bought discounted c ...
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- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Planning Commission, India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- The University of Queensland
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Minerals Council of Australia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- PTC India Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
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