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Thursday, 11 August 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 On July 22nd, Ukraine signed a deal with Russia to release 22mn tons of grain from Ukraine’s 3 major ports (Yuzhny, Chornomorsk, Odesa). Such an agreement is anticipated to soften grain prices as an immediate response to the increase in global supplies. But it is also anticipated to offer relief to grain mills, in an effort to ensure limited rotting of the current harvest and rapidly free up silos for the next season’s harvest. However, after the deal, a myriad of challenges are left to resolve before exports can ramp up, therefore nothing ensures that exports will pick up in the near term.
On August 1st, the first ship loaded with 26,000 tons of corn departed from Ukraine for Lebanon, marking a resume of Ukraine grain exports. Since then, and at the time of writing, a total of 12 vessels have departed from Ukrainian ports carrying 374,800 tons of agriculture-related merchandise, which is still a fraction of the 22mn tonnes of trapped grain in the country. Ukraine anticipates the number of vessels to pick up grains will be increased to reach full capacity within the following weeks. Given the exports continue successfully, they could increase as much as 3mn tons/month in 4-6 weeks.
In order to ship a total of 22mn tonnes of grains, it is estimated that approx. 371 loadings in 40,000-69,000dwt size vessels will be needed. The vessels will cover routes from the Black Sea to North Africa, the Middle East, and potentially Europe, while their voyages are expected to last approx. 7 days. At the moment most inquiries are Handy-based due to the shallow draft of ports in the Black Sea area and the short distance that needs to be covered. Given the limited duration of the agreement, it is expected that most inquiries will be for short-period time-charters for these particular routes. If the agreement is extended and more shipments will head to Asia, primarily S. Korea and China, there will be increased demand for period charters and for bigger vessels.
Congestion is expected to increase in Ukrainian ports as they have been un-operational and un-manned since the beginning of the war and their infrastructures might have been damaged. However, at the moment the discharge rate is relatively rapid given the small number of vessels in the area. Vessels that will bear increased voyage risk will require insurance premiums resulting in higher voyage expenses. Shipowners’ biggest impediment is to secure insurance for their vessels and cargoes and to find crew to sail their ships. On the other hand, this means that freights will move upwards in order to compensate for the extra risk.
As per the latest update of Ukraine’s Ministry of Agriculture on July 31st, the country’s wheat exports have been down -53.2% y-o-y, while the market outlook for next year’s wheat crop remains bearish. Another downside factor is the quality of the grains that have been loaded in vessels for months under increased humidity and inadequate ventilation. There is a high risk that cargoes that have not been freshly loaded will be rejected by the importers if they do not meet specific requirements.
Under the current circumstances, there are several challenges lying ahead that create doubts on whether the exports could fully or at least partially recover. Given that the situation worsens around the Black Sea area and the materialized deal will be undermined, a further downside for grain trade is more likely within 2H2022. On the contrary, if the operation continues relatively smoothly, the world grain trade could see relief within 2H2022 as a result of an increase in tonne-days demand, while Ukraine could receive up to $1bn/month from its grain exports in order to fund its sowing plans.
By Chara Georgousi
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Tuesday, 23 August 22
SHIPPING INDUSTRY TO REMOVE THE INDIAN OCEAN HIGH RISK AREA - BIMCO
After more than a decade of effective threat-reducing counter-piracy operations the shipping industry has removed the ‘Indian Ocean High Risk ...
Tuesday, 23 August 22
SHIPPING: GLOBAL TAX REFORM - WATSON FARLEY & WILLIAMS
OECD rules designed to implement a global minimum corporate tax rate for very large multinational groups have now been published and are expected t ...
Tuesday, 23 August 22
PARTIES CONCLUDE JOINT R&D AGREEMENT FOR WORLD’S FIRST AMMONIA FLOATING STORAGE AND REGASIFICATION BARGE CONTRIBUTING TO PROMOTING THE EARLY INTRODUCTION OF AMMONIA FUEL - NYK
NYK Line, Nihon Shipyard Co., Ltd. (NSY), ClassNK, and IHI Corporation (IHI) signed a joint research and development agreement for the commercializ ...
Monday, 22 August 22
INDONESIAN GOVERNMENT IMPOSED ON NEW PROGRESSIVE ROYALTIES FOR COAL
Indonesian President Joko Widodo has signed a Government Regulation (Number 26 of 2022) on 15 August 2022 related to the progressive royalty rates ...
Monday, 22 August 22
CHINA'S JULY RUSSIAN COAL IMPORTS HIT 5-YR HIGH AS WEST SHUNS MOSCOW - REUTERS
China’s coal imports from Russia jumped 14% in July from a year earlier to their highest in at least five years, as China bought discounted c ...
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- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Economic Council, Georgia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- The University of Queensland
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- White Energy Company Limited
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
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