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Thursday, 11 August 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 On July 22nd, Ukraine signed a deal with Russia to release 22mn tons of grain from Ukraine’s 3 major ports (Yuzhny, Chornomorsk, Odesa). Such an agreement is anticipated to soften grain prices as an immediate response to the increase in global supplies. But it is also anticipated to offer relief to grain mills, in an effort to ensure limited rotting of the current harvest and rapidly free up silos for the next season’s harvest. However, after the deal, a myriad of challenges are left to resolve before exports can ramp up, therefore nothing ensures that exports will pick up in the near term.
On August 1st, the first ship loaded with 26,000 tons of corn departed from Ukraine for Lebanon, marking a resume of Ukraine grain exports. Since then, and at the time of writing, a total of 12 vessels have departed from Ukrainian ports carrying 374,800 tons of agriculture-related merchandise, which is still a fraction of the 22mn tonnes of trapped grain in the country. Ukraine anticipates the number of vessels to pick up grains will be increased to reach full capacity within the following weeks. Given the exports continue successfully, they could increase as much as 3mn tons/month in 4-6 weeks.
In order to ship a total of 22mn tonnes of grains, it is estimated that approx. 371 loadings in 40,000-69,000dwt size vessels will be needed. The vessels will cover routes from the Black Sea to North Africa, the Middle East, and potentially Europe, while their voyages are expected to last approx. 7 days. At the moment most inquiries are Handy-based due to the shallow draft of ports in the Black Sea area and the short distance that needs to be covered. Given the limited duration of the agreement, it is expected that most inquiries will be for short-period time-charters for these particular routes. If the agreement is extended and more shipments will head to Asia, primarily S. Korea and China, there will be increased demand for period charters and for bigger vessels.
Congestion is expected to increase in Ukrainian ports as they have been un-operational and un-manned since the beginning of the war and their infrastructures might have been damaged. However, at the moment the discharge rate is relatively rapid given the small number of vessels in the area. Vessels that will bear increased voyage risk will require insurance premiums resulting in higher voyage expenses. Shipowners’ biggest impediment is to secure insurance for their vessels and cargoes and to find crew to sail their ships. On the other hand, this means that freights will move upwards in order to compensate for the extra risk.
As per the latest update of Ukraine’s Ministry of Agriculture on July 31st, the country’s wheat exports have been down -53.2% y-o-y, while the market outlook for next year’s wheat crop remains bearish. Another downside factor is the quality of the grains that have been loaded in vessels for months under increased humidity and inadequate ventilation. There is a high risk that cargoes that have not been freshly loaded will be rejected by the importers if they do not meet specific requirements.
Under the current circumstances, there are several challenges lying ahead that create doubts on whether the exports could fully or at least partially recover. Given that the situation worsens around the Black Sea area and the materialized deal will be undermined, a further downside for grain trade is more likely within 2H2022. On the contrary, if the operation continues relatively smoothly, the world grain trade could see relief within 2H2022 as a result of an increase in tonne-days demand, while Ukraine could receive up to $1bn/month from its grain exports in order to fund its sowing plans.
By Chara Georgousi
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Friday, 02 September 22
INDONESIA COAL PRICE REFERENCE SLIPS SLIGHTLY IN SEPTEMBER 2022
COALspot.com: Indonesian Coal Price Reference for September delivery drops 0.74 per cent month on month.
The Indonesian Coal Price R ...
Friday, 02 September 22
ABM INVESTAMA BUYS 30% GEMS SHARES FOR US$ 420 MILLION
PT ABM Investama Tbk through its indirect subsidiary, bought a 30% stake in the PT Golden Energy Mines Tbk for US$ 420 million or around Rp 6.2 tri ...
Wednesday, 31 August 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
Scorching temperatures and extremely dry conditions during the Northern hemisphere summer have been drying crops. Yield prospects have subsided in ...
Tuesday, 23 August 22
HIGH COAL PRICES COULD BOOST INDONESIA'S ENERGY TRANSITION - IEEFA
Global coal prices have reached an all-time high as countries stop purchasing Russian coal amidst the Russia-Ukraine conflict. Indonesian coal comp ...
Tuesday, 23 August 22
A COMBINED US$6.8-BILLION CASH BALANCE OF INDONESIAN COAL COMPANIES COULD PROVIDE FOR TIMELY INVESTMENTS IN GREEN TRANSITION - IEEFA
A combined US$6.8-billion cash balance of Indonesian coal companies could provide for timely investments in green transition
The opp ...
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- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- White Energy Company Limited
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- MS Steel International - UAE
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Planning Commission, India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
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