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Thursday, 11 August 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 On July 22nd, Ukraine signed a deal with Russia to release 22mn tons of grain from Ukraine’s 3 major ports (Yuzhny, Chornomorsk, Odesa). Such an agreement is anticipated to soften grain prices as an immediate response to the increase in global supplies. But it is also anticipated to offer relief to grain mills, in an effort to ensure limited rotting of the current harvest and rapidly free up silos for the next season’s harvest. However, after the deal, a myriad of challenges are left to resolve before exports can ramp up, therefore nothing ensures that exports will pick up in the near term.
On August 1st, the first ship loaded with 26,000 tons of corn departed from Ukraine for Lebanon, marking a resume of Ukraine grain exports. Since then, and at the time of writing, a total of 12 vessels have departed from Ukrainian ports carrying 374,800 tons of agriculture-related merchandise, which is still a fraction of the 22mn tonnes of trapped grain in the country. Ukraine anticipates the number of vessels to pick up grains will be increased to reach full capacity within the following weeks. Given the exports continue successfully, they could increase as much as 3mn tons/month in 4-6 weeks.
In order to ship a total of 22mn tonnes of grains, it is estimated that approx. 371 loadings in 40,000-69,000dwt size vessels will be needed. The vessels will cover routes from the Black Sea to North Africa, the Middle East, and potentially Europe, while their voyages are expected to last approx. 7 days. At the moment most inquiries are Handy-based due to the shallow draft of ports in the Black Sea area and the short distance that needs to be covered. Given the limited duration of the agreement, it is expected that most inquiries will be for short-period time-charters for these particular routes. If the agreement is extended and more shipments will head to Asia, primarily S. Korea and China, there will be increased demand for period charters and for bigger vessels.
Congestion is expected to increase in Ukrainian ports as they have been un-operational and un-manned since the beginning of the war and their infrastructures might have been damaged. However, at the moment the discharge rate is relatively rapid given the small number of vessels in the area. Vessels that will bear increased voyage risk will require insurance premiums resulting in higher voyage expenses. Shipowners’ biggest impediment is to secure insurance for their vessels and cargoes and to find crew to sail their ships. On the other hand, this means that freights will move upwards in order to compensate for the extra risk.
As per the latest update of Ukraine’s Ministry of Agriculture on July 31st, the country’s wheat exports have been down -53.2% y-o-y, while the market outlook for next year’s wheat crop remains bearish. Another downside factor is the quality of the grains that have been loaded in vessels for months under increased humidity and inadequate ventilation. There is a high risk that cargoes that have not been freshly loaded will be rejected by the importers if they do not meet specific requirements.
Under the current circumstances, there are several challenges lying ahead that create doubts on whether the exports could fully or at least partially recover. Given that the situation worsens around the Black Sea area and the materialized deal will be undermined, a further downside for grain trade is more likely within 2H2022. On the contrary, if the operation continues relatively smoothly, the world grain trade could see relief within 2H2022 as a result of an increase in tonne-days demand, while Ukraine could receive up to $1bn/month from its grain exports in order to fund its sowing plans.
By Chara Georgousi
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Friday, 16 September 22
WHEN IS A VESSEL'S INCOME EARNING CAPACITY AT RISK? 'CONTROLLED INCOME CAN BE A KEY OF SUCCESS' - MARASCO MARINE
Managing marine risks is not an easy task, which requires special knowledge and expertise on the subject per se. Customarily, big ship management c ...
Friday, 16 September 22
DRY BULK MARKET: EU’S BAN ON RUSSIAN COAL LIFTS DEMAND DESPITE ECONOMIC HEADWINDS - BIMCO
Highlights
– The Baltic Exchange Dry Index (BDI) peaked in late May and has since fallen sharply as lower Chinese demand and adverse glob ...
Friday, 16 September 22
BIMCO EMBARKS ON NEW STANDARD FOR “QUIET ENJOYMENT”
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
A newly set-up BIMCO drafting team involving a cross-section of shipowners, charterers, financing and leasing i ...
Friday, 16 September 22
INDIAN COAL PRODUCTION TO RISE 150 PER CENT IN 10 YEARS: CENTRE - EXPRESS NEWS SERVICE
The Union Ministry of Mines is expecting 150 per cent growth in coal production 10 years down the line as a result of coal reforms that had been us ...
Thursday, 15 September 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
While the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies agreed on a 100,000 b/d output cut last week, oil flows are in the spotlight ...
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- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- The University of Queensland
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Planning Commission, India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Australian Coal Association
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
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