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Thursday, 11 August 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 On July 22nd, Ukraine signed a deal with Russia to release 22mn tons of grain from Ukraine’s 3 major ports (Yuzhny, Chornomorsk, Odesa). Such an agreement is anticipated to soften grain prices as an immediate response to the increase in global supplies. But it is also anticipated to offer relief to grain mills, in an effort to ensure limited rotting of the current harvest and rapidly free up silos for the next season’s harvest. However, after the deal, a myriad of challenges are left to resolve before exports can ramp up, therefore nothing ensures that exports will pick up in the near term.
On August 1st, the first ship loaded with 26,000 tons of corn departed from Ukraine for Lebanon, marking a resume of Ukraine grain exports. Since then, and at the time of writing, a total of 12 vessels have departed from Ukrainian ports carrying 374,800 tons of agriculture-related merchandise, which is still a fraction of the 22mn tonnes of trapped grain in the country. Ukraine anticipates the number of vessels to pick up grains will be increased to reach full capacity within the following weeks. Given the exports continue successfully, they could increase as much as 3mn tons/month in 4-6 weeks.
In order to ship a total of 22mn tonnes of grains, it is estimated that approx. 371 loadings in 40,000-69,000dwt size vessels will be needed. The vessels will cover routes from the Black Sea to North Africa, the Middle East, and potentially Europe, while their voyages are expected to last approx. 7 days. At the moment most inquiries are Handy-based due to the shallow draft of ports in the Black Sea area and the short distance that needs to be covered. Given the limited duration of the agreement, it is expected that most inquiries will be for short-period time-charters for these particular routes. If the agreement is extended and more shipments will head to Asia, primarily S. Korea and China, there will be increased demand for period charters and for bigger vessels.
Congestion is expected to increase in Ukrainian ports as they have been un-operational and un-manned since the beginning of the war and their infrastructures might have been damaged. However, at the moment the discharge rate is relatively rapid given the small number of vessels in the area. Vessels that will bear increased voyage risk will require insurance premiums resulting in higher voyage expenses. Shipowners’ biggest impediment is to secure insurance for their vessels and cargoes and to find crew to sail their ships. On the other hand, this means that freights will move upwards in order to compensate for the extra risk.
As per the latest update of Ukraine’s Ministry of Agriculture on July 31st, the country’s wheat exports have been down -53.2% y-o-y, while the market outlook for next year’s wheat crop remains bearish. Another downside factor is the quality of the grains that have been loaded in vessels for months under increased humidity and inadequate ventilation. There is a high risk that cargoes that have not been freshly loaded will be rejected by the importers if they do not meet specific requirements.
Under the current circumstances, there are several challenges lying ahead that create doubts on whether the exports could fully or at least partially recover. Given that the situation worsens around the Black Sea area and the materialized deal will be undermined, a further downside for grain trade is more likely within 2H2022. On the contrary, if the operation continues relatively smoothly, the world grain trade could see relief within 2H2022 as a result of an increase in tonne-days demand, while Ukraine could receive up to $1bn/month from its grain exports in order to fund its sowing plans.
By Chara Georgousi
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Tuesday, 20 September 22
CHINA COAL OUTPUT UP 8.1 PCT IN AUGUST - XINHUA
China’s raw coal output posted stable expansion in August, official data showed.
The country produced 370 million tonnes of ra ...
Monday, 19 September 22
BUMA AUSTRALIA AWARDED A$400 MILLION CONTRACT EXTENSION BY BMA FOR GOONYELLA PROJECT
Press Release – PT Delta Dunia Makmur Tbk. (the "Company") announced that its subsidiary, PT Bukit Makmur Mandiri Utama ("BUMA ...
Saturday, 17 September 22
CHINA WARNS COAL COMPANIES AGAINST DUAL CONTRACTS, KEEP PRICES STABLE - REUTERS
China’s state economic planner warned coal companies operating at ports in the Bohai Bay region to comply with their long-term contracts to k ...
Saturday, 17 September 22
IS A GLOBAL RECESSION IMMINENT? - WORLD BANK
Since the beginning of the year, a rapid deterioration of growth prospects coupled with rising inflation and tightening financing conditions, has i ...
Saturday, 17 September 22
FITCH RATINGS REVISES GLOBAL METALS & MINING PRICE ASSUMPTIONS
Fitch Ratings has revised its metals and mining price assumptions reflecting evolving economic growth expectations and demand and supply dynamics.
...
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- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- PTC India Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- The University of Queensland
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- White Energy Company Limited
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
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