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Thursday, 11 August 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 On July 22nd, Ukraine signed a deal with Russia to release 22mn tons of grain from Ukraine’s 3 major ports (Yuzhny, Chornomorsk, Odesa). Such an agreement is anticipated to soften grain prices as an immediate response to the increase in global supplies. But it is also anticipated to offer relief to grain mills, in an effort to ensure limited rotting of the current harvest and rapidly free up silos for the next season’s harvest. However, after the deal, a myriad of challenges are left to resolve before exports can ramp up, therefore nothing ensures that exports will pick up in the near term.
On August 1st, the first ship loaded with 26,000 tons of corn departed from Ukraine for Lebanon, marking a resume of Ukraine grain exports. Since then, and at the time of writing, a total of 12 vessels have departed from Ukrainian ports carrying 374,800 tons of agriculture-related merchandise, which is still a fraction of the 22mn tonnes of trapped grain in the country. Ukraine anticipates the number of vessels to pick up grains will be increased to reach full capacity within the following weeks. Given the exports continue successfully, they could increase as much as 3mn tons/month in 4-6 weeks.
In order to ship a total of 22mn tonnes of grains, it is estimated that approx. 371 loadings in 40,000-69,000dwt size vessels will be needed. The vessels will cover routes from the Black Sea to North Africa, the Middle East, and potentially Europe, while their voyages are expected to last approx. 7 days. At the moment most inquiries are Handy-based due to the shallow draft of ports in the Black Sea area and the short distance that needs to be covered. Given the limited duration of the agreement, it is expected that most inquiries will be for short-period time-charters for these particular routes. If the agreement is extended and more shipments will head to Asia, primarily S. Korea and China, there will be increased demand for period charters and for bigger vessels.
Congestion is expected to increase in Ukrainian ports as they have been un-operational and un-manned since the beginning of the war and their infrastructures might have been damaged. However, at the moment the discharge rate is relatively rapid given the small number of vessels in the area. Vessels that will bear increased voyage risk will require insurance premiums resulting in higher voyage expenses. Shipowners’ biggest impediment is to secure insurance for their vessels and cargoes and to find crew to sail their ships. On the other hand, this means that freights will move upwards in order to compensate for the extra risk.
As per the latest update of Ukraine’s Ministry of Agriculture on July 31st, the country’s wheat exports have been down -53.2% y-o-y, while the market outlook for next year’s wheat crop remains bearish. Another downside factor is the quality of the grains that have been loaded in vessels for months under increased humidity and inadequate ventilation. There is a high risk that cargoes that have not been freshly loaded will be rejected by the importers if they do not meet specific requirements.
Under the current circumstances, there are several challenges lying ahead that create doubts on whether the exports could fully or at least partially recover. Given that the situation worsens around the Black Sea area and the materialized deal will be undermined, a further downside for grain trade is more likely within 2H2022. On the contrary, if the operation continues relatively smoothly, the world grain trade could see relief within 2H2022 as a result of an increase in tonne-days demand, while Ukraine could receive up to $1bn/month from its grain exports in order to fund its sowing plans.
By Chara Georgousi
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Tuesday, 04 October 22
INDONESIAN COAL PRICE REFERENCE SURGE AGAIN TO RECORD HIGH
COALspot.com: Indonesian Coal Price Reference reached another record high in October as Russia's war in Ukraine continues to spark a surge in c ...
Sunday, 02 October 22
MISC STRENGTHENS ITS PARTNERSHIP WITH SEARIVER MARITIME
MISC Berhad (MISC) today announced that its subsidiaries Polaris LNG Three Pte. Ltd. and Polaris LNG Four Pte. Ltd. have secured long-term time cha ...
Thursday, 29 September 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
This week, focus turns to the 38th APPEC Conference, where leading professionals from the global oil industry will discuss the future key drivers o ...
Thursday, 29 September 22
HIGH COAL PRICES REMAIN A CONCERN FOR DOMESTIC NON-FERROUS METAL COMPANIES - ICRA
According to ICRA on Monday, the high price of coal will have a negative effect on the profitability of domestic non-ferrous metal companies that m ...
Tuesday, 27 September 22
14% INCREASE IN EUROPEAN COAL DEMAND TO BE SHORT-TERM TREND - WOOD MACKENZIE
European seaborne thermal coal demand is projected to increase 14% or 12 million metric tonnes (Mt) this year to 98 Mt as it grapples with the curr ...
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- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- White Energy Company Limited
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- The University of Queensland
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
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