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Thursday, 11 August 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 On July 22nd, Ukraine signed a deal with Russia to release 22mn tons of grain from Ukraine’s 3 major ports (Yuzhny, Chornomorsk, Odesa). Such an agreement is anticipated to soften grain prices as an immediate response to the increase in global supplies. But it is also anticipated to offer relief to grain mills, in an effort to ensure limited rotting of the current harvest and rapidly free up silos for the next season’s harvest. However, after the deal, a myriad of challenges are left to resolve before exports can ramp up, therefore nothing ensures that exports will pick up in the near term.
On August 1st, the first ship loaded with 26,000 tons of corn departed from Ukraine for Lebanon, marking a resume of Ukraine grain exports. Since then, and at the time of writing, a total of 12 vessels have departed from Ukrainian ports carrying 374,800 tons of agriculture-related merchandise, which is still a fraction of the 22mn tonnes of trapped grain in the country. Ukraine anticipates the number of vessels to pick up grains will be increased to reach full capacity within the following weeks. Given the exports continue successfully, they could increase as much as 3mn tons/month in 4-6 weeks.
In order to ship a total of 22mn tonnes of grains, it is estimated that approx. 371 loadings in 40,000-69,000dwt size vessels will be needed. The vessels will cover routes from the Black Sea to North Africa, the Middle East, and potentially Europe, while their voyages are expected to last approx. 7 days. At the moment most inquiries are Handy-based due to the shallow draft of ports in the Black Sea area and the short distance that needs to be covered. Given the limited duration of the agreement, it is expected that most inquiries will be for short-period time-charters for these particular routes. If the agreement is extended and more shipments will head to Asia, primarily S. Korea and China, there will be increased demand for period charters and for bigger vessels.
Congestion is expected to increase in Ukrainian ports as they have been un-operational and un-manned since the beginning of the war and their infrastructures might have been damaged. However, at the moment the discharge rate is relatively rapid given the small number of vessels in the area. Vessels that will bear increased voyage risk will require insurance premiums resulting in higher voyage expenses. Shipowners’ biggest impediment is to secure insurance for their vessels and cargoes and to find crew to sail their ships. On the other hand, this means that freights will move upwards in order to compensate for the extra risk.
As per the latest update of Ukraine’s Ministry of Agriculture on July 31st, the country’s wheat exports have been down -53.2% y-o-y, while the market outlook for next year’s wheat crop remains bearish. Another downside factor is the quality of the grains that have been loaded in vessels for months under increased humidity and inadequate ventilation. There is a high risk that cargoes that have not been freshly loaded will be rejected by the importers if they do not meet specific requirements.
Under the current circumstances, there are several challenges lying ahead that create doubts on whether the exports could fully or at least partially recover. Given that the situation worsens around the Black Sea area and the materialized deal will be undermined, a further downside for grain trade is more likely within 2H2022. On the contrary, if the operation continues relatively smoothly, the world grain trade could see relief within 2H2022 as a result of an increase in tonne-days demand, while Ukraine could receive up to $1bn/month from its grain exports in order to fund its sowing plans.
By Chara Georgousi
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Thursday, 06 October 22
COAL INDIA ASKED TO ENHANCE SUPPLY TO THERMAL POWER PLANTS - IANS
With the festival season round the corner, Coal India Ltd. has been directed by the government to scale up dispatch to thermal power plants.
&n ...
Wednesday, 05 October 22
BUNKER PRICES DOWN AGAIN; IS THERE MORE TO COME? - INTEGR8 FUELS
It’s the economy…..”
VLSFO prices are now back to levels at the start of this year. After all the extremes of thi ...
Wednesday, 05 October 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
Amid the looming western sanctions on Russia, the country is challenged to pivot its energy markets away from Europe and toward the East. Yet, Russ ...
Tuesday, 04 October 22
A REMARKABLE SHIFT IN FORTUNES HAS BEEN NOTED IN THE CRUDE OIL TANKER MARKETS - ALLIED SHIPPING
A remarkable shift in fortunes has been noted in the crude oil tanker markets over the past month, yet despite these shifts being seemingly in thei ...
Tuesday, 04 October 22
OIL PRICES COULD SOON RETURN TO $100 AS OPEC+ CONSIDERS ‘HISTORIC’ CUT, ANALYSTS SAY - CNBC
An influential alliance of some of the world’s most powerful oil producers is reportedly considering their largest output cut since the start ...
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- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- The University of Queensland
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- White Energy Company Limited
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
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