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Thursday, 11 August 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 On July 22nd, Ukraine signed a deal with Russia to release 22mn tons of grain from Ukraine’s 3 major ports (Yuzhny, Chornomorsk, Odesa). Such an agreement is anticipated to soften grain prices as an immediate response to the increase in global supplies. But it is also anticipated to offer relief to grain mills, in an effort to ensure limited rotting of the current harvest and rapidly free up silos for the next season’s harvest. However, after the deal, a myriad of challenges are left to resolve before exports can ramp up, therefore nothing ensures that exports will pick up in the near term.
On August 1st, the first ship loaded with 26,000 tons of corn departed from Ukraine for Lebanon, marking a resume of Ukraine grain exports. Since then, and at the time of writing, a total of 12 vessels have departed from Ukrainian ports carrying 374,800 tons of agriculture-related merchandise, which is still a fraction of the 22mn tonnes of trapped grain in the country. Ukraine anticipates the number of vessels to pick up grains will be increased to reach full capacity within the following weeks. Given the exports continue successfully, they could increase as much as 3mn tons/month in 4-6 weeks.
In order to ship a total of 22mn tonnes of grains, it is estimated that approx. 371 loadings in 40,000-69,000dwt size vessels will be needed. The vessels will cover routes from the Black Sea to North Africa, the Middle East, and potentially Europe, while their voyages are expected to last approx. 7 days. At the moment most inquiries are Handy-based due to the shallow draft of ports in the Black Sea area and the short distance that needs to be covered. Given the limited duration of the agreement, it is expected that most inquiries will be for short-period time-charters for these particular routes. If the agreement is extended and more shipments will head to Asia, primarily S. Korea and China, there will be increased demand for period charters and for bigger vessels.
Congestion is expected to increase in Ukrainian ports as they have been un-operational and un-manned since the beginning of the war and their infrastructures might have been damaged. However, at the moment the discharge rate is relatively rapid given the small number of vessels in the area. Vessels that will bear increased voyage risk will require insurance premiums resulting in higher voyage expenses. Shipowners’ biggest impediment is to secure insurance for their vessels and cargoes and to find crew to sail their ships. On the other hand, this means that freights will move upwards in order to compensate for the extra risk.
As per the latest update of Ukraine’s Ministry of Agriculture on July 31st, the country’s wheat exports have been down -53.2% y-o-y, while the market outlook for next year’s wheat crop remains bearish. Another downside factor is the quality of the grains that have been loaded in vessels for months under increased humidity and inadequate ventilation. There is a high risk that cargoes that have not been freshly loaded will be rejected by the importers if they do not meet specific requirements.
Under the current circumstances, there are several challenges lying ahead that create doubts on whether the exports could fully or at least partially recover. Given that the situation worsens around the Black Sea area and the materialized deal will be undermined, a further downside for grain trade is more likely within 2H2022. On the contrary, if the operation continues relatively smoothly, the world grain trade could see relief within 2H2022 as a result of an increase in tonne-days demand, while Ukraine could receive up to $1bn/month from its grain exports in order to fund its sowing plans.
By Chara Georgousi
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Wednesday, 19 October 22
WHAT WILL THE GAS MARKET LOOK LIKE IN A NET ZERO WORLD? - WOOD MACKENZIE
The global gas and LNG market faces a number of ‘great unknowns’. With the market in turmoil uncertainty abounds – from the scale ...
Wednesday, 19 October 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
The LNG market remains extremely tight, and as a result adding further pressure on the vessel charter market, which is already stretched due to the ...
Sunday, 16 October 22
COULD A RETURN TO SHALE EXPLORATION BE PART OF THE SOLUTION TO EUROPE'S GAS SUPPLY PROBLEM? - WOOD MACKENZIE
The European gas market is in turmoil. Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has shaken things up, triggering a complete rethink of European energy st ...
Thursday, 13 October 22
THERMAL COAL PRICES RETREAT AS WINTER SUPPLY FEARS EASE - REUTERS
The prices of key thermal seaborne coal grades are retreating amid signs that supplies will be sufficient to meet winter demand in both Europe and ...
Thursday, 13 October 22
SPOT COAL BIDDING: CHINESE FIRM WANTS REVISED MECHANISM - BUSINESS RECORDER
Chinese company M/s Huaneng Shandong Ruyi (Pakistan) Energy Limited (HSR) has cautioned National Electric Power Regulatory Authority (Nepra) that i ...
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- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- The University of Queensland
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- White Energy Company Limited
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
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