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Thursday, 11 August 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 On July 22nd, Ukraine signed a deal with Russia to release 22mn tons of grain from Ukraine’s 3 major ports (Yuzhny, Chornomorsk, Odesa). Such an agreement is anticipated to soften grain prices as an immediate response to the increase in global supplies. But it is also anticipated to offer relief to grain mills, in an effort to ensure limited rotting of the current harvest and rapidly free up silos for the next season’s harvest. However, after the deal, a myriad of challenges are left to resolve before exports can ramp up, therefore nothing ensures that exports will pick up in the near term.
On August 1st, the first ship loaded with 26,000 tons of corn departed from Ukraine for Lebanon, marking a resume of Ukraine grain exports. Since then, and at the time of writing, a total of 12 vessels have departed from Ukrainian ports carrying 374,800 tons of agriculture-related merchandise, which is still a fraction of the 22mn tonnes of trapped grain in the country. Ukraine anticipates the number of vessels to pick up grains will be increased to reach full capacity within the following weeks. Given the exports continue successfully, they could increase as much as 3mn tons/month in 4-6 weeks.
In order to ship a total of 22mn tonnes of grains, it is estimated that approx. 371 loadings in 40,000-69,000dwt size vessels will be needed. The vessels will cover routes from the Black Sea to North Africa, the Middle East, and potentially Europe, while their voyages are expected to last approx. 7 days. At the moment most inquiries are Handy-based due to the shallow draft of ports in the Black Sea area and the short distance that needs to be covered. Given the limited duration of the agreement, it is expected that most inquiries will be for short-period time-charters for these particular routes. If the agreement is extended and more shipments will head to Asia, primarily S. Korea and China, there will be increased demand for period charters and for bigger vessels.
Congestion is expected to increase in Ukrainian ports as they have been un-operational and un-manned since the beginning of the war and their infrastructures might have been damaged. However, at the moment the discharge rate is relatively rapid given the small number of vessels in the area. Vessels that will bear increased voyage risk will require insurance premiums resulting in higher voyage expenses. Shipowners’ biggest impediment is to secure insurance for their vessels and cargoes and to find crew to sail their ships. On the other hand, this means that freights will move upwards in order to compensate for the extra risk.
As per the latest update of Ukraine’s Ministry of Agriculture on July 31st, the country’s wheat exports have been down -53.2% y-o-y, while the market outlook for next year’s wheat crop remains bearish. Another downside factor is the quality of the grains that have been loaded in vessels for months under increased humidity and inadequate ventilation. There is a high risk that cargoes that have not been freshly loaded will be rejected by the importers if they do not meet specific requirements.
Under the current circumstances, there are several challenges lying ahead that create doubts on whether the exports could fully or at least partially recover. Given that the situation worsens around the Black Sea area and the materialized deal will be undermined, a further downside for grain trade is more likely within 2H2022. On the contrary, if the operation continues relatively smoothly, the world grain trade could see relief within 2H2022 as a result of an increase in tonne-days demand, while Ukraine could receive up to $1bn/month from its grain exports in order to fund its sowing plans.
By Chara Georgousi
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Monday, 31 October 22
U.S. COAL-FIRED GENERATION DECLINING AFTER BRIEF RISE LAST YEAR - EIA
We expect 6% less U.S. coal-fired generation in 2022 than in 2021, according to our latest Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO). Although coal-fired ge ...
Monday, 31 October 22
CHINA COAL OUTPUT UP 12.3 PCT IN SEPTEMBER - XINHUA
China’s raw coal output posted stable expansion in September, official data showed.
The country produced 390 million tonnes of ...
Wednesday, 26 October 22
BIMCO PUBLISHES UPDATED GENCON CONTRACT
BIMCO has published a revised and updated version GENCON 2022 – one of its flagship contracts within its portfolio of standard contracts for ...
Monday, 24 October 22
KOSPO TO INVITE 400,000 MT OF COAL FOR 3 YEARS
COALspot.com: Korea Southern Power Co., Ltd. (KOSPO) has issued an international tender for 400,000 MT of 3,800 - 4,400kcal/kg NCV and Sulfur Max 0 ...
Wednesday, 19 October 22
ASIA COULD BE A BRIGHT SPOT AMID GLOBAL DOWNTURN NEXT YEAR, ECONOMISTS SAY - CNBC
Asia — especially Southeast Asia — remains a bright spot, even as the global economy looks set to head into recession next year, econom ...
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- PTC India Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- The University of Queensland
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Planning Commission, India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Australian Coal Association
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
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