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Thursday, 11 August 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 On July 22nd, Ukraine signed a deal with Russia to release 22mn tons of grain from Ukraine’s 3 major ports (Yuzhny, Chornomorsk, Odesa). Such an agreement is anticipated to soften grain prices as an immediate response to the increase in global supplies. But it is also anticipated to offer relief to grain mills, in an effort to ensure limited rotting of the current harvest and rapidly free up silos for the next season’s harvest. However, after the deal, a myriad of challenges are left to resolve before exports can ramp up, therefore nothing ensures that exports will pick up in the near term.
On August 1st, the first ship loaded with 26,000 tons of corn departed from Ukraine for Lebanon, marking a resume of Ukraine grain exports. Since then, and at the time of writing, a total of 12 vessels have departed from Ukrainian ports carrying 374,800 tons of agriculture-related merchandise, which is still a fraction of the 22mn tonnes of trapped grain in the country. Ukraine anticipates the number of vessels to pick up grains will be increased to reach full capacity within the following weeks. Given the exports continue successfully, they could increase as much as 3mn tons/month in 4-6 weeks.
In order to ship a total of 22mn tonnes of grains, it is estimated that approx. 371 loadings in 40,000-69,000dwt size vessels will be needed. The vessels will cover routes from the Black Sea to North Africa, the Middle East, and potentially Europe, while their voyages are expected to last approx. 7 days. At the moment most inquiries are Handy-based due to the shallow draft of ports in the Black Sea area and the short distance that needs to be covered. Given the limited duration of the agreement, it is expected that most inquiries will be for short-period time-charters for these particular routes. If the agreement is extended and more shipments will head to Asia, primarily S. Korea and China, there will be increased demand for period charters and for bigger vessels.
Congestion is expected to increase in Ukrainian ports as they have been un-operational and un-manned since the beginning of the war and their infrastructures might have been damaged. However, at the moment the discharge rate is relatively rapid given the small number of vessels in the area. Vessels that will bear increased voyage risk will require insurance premiums resulting in higher voyage expenses. Shipowners’ biggest impediment is to secure insurance for their vessels and cargoes and to find crew to sail their ships. On the other hand, this means that freights will move upwards in order to compensate for the extra risk.
As per the latest update of Ukraine’s Ministry of Agriculture on July 31st, the country’s wheat exports have been down -53.2% y-o-y, while the market outlook for next year’s wheat crop remains bearish. Another downside factor is the quality of the grains that have been loaded in vessels for months under increased humidity and inadequate ventilation. There is a high risk that cargoes that have not been freshly loaded will be rejected by the importers if they do not meet specific requirements.
Under the current circumstances, there are several challenges lying ahead that create doubts on whether the exports could fully or at least partially recover. Given that the situation worsens around the Black Sea area and the materialized deal will be undermined, a further downside for grain trade is more likely within 2H2022. On the contrary, if the operation continues relatively smoothly, the world grain trade could see relief within 2H2022 as a result of an increase in tonne-days demand, while Ukraine could receive up to $1bn/month from its grain exports in order to fund its sowing plans.
By Chara Georgousi
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Friday, 04 November 22
CHINA EXPANDS COAL TERM CONTRACTS TO ALL MINES TO STABILIZE MARKET - REUTERS
China has expanded long-term thermal coal supply contracts for 2023 to all coal mines and asked power utilities to source more of their demand thro ...
Thursday, 03 November 22
HANDYSIZE VALUES MOVING UP IN OCTOBER, WHILE LNG VALUES SKYROCKET - VESSELSVALUE
Handysize values have increased this month across most ages, following a period of decline. Values for generic 10 year old Handysizes have moved up ...
Thursday, 03 November 22
EUROPEAN GAS SUPPLY SURPLUS, NOVEMBER HBA DOWN TO US$ 308.2 PER TON - ESDM
European gas supply conditions have a major influence in determining fluctuations in the Reference Coal Price (HBA). The November 2022 HBA recorded ...
Wednesday, 02 November 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
Only five weeks before western sanctions’ full effect, uncertainty over energy has markets and governments on the edge. What was initially th ...
Tuesday, 01 November 22
CHINA COAL TRADE DISRUPTED BY COVID OUTBREAKS AS WINTER LOOMS - REUTERS
China’s strict COVID-19 policy is constraining coal supplies and pushing up prices, industry officials and traders say, just weeks before the ...
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- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Planning Commission, India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
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