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Thursday, 11 August 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 On July 22nd, Ukraine signed a deal with Russia to release 22mn tons of grain from Ukraine’s 3 major ports (Yuzhny, Chornomorsk, Odesa). Such an agreement is anticipated to soften grain prices as an immediate response to the increase in global supplies. But it is also anticipated to offer relief to grain mills, in an effort to ensure limited rotting of the current harvest and rapidly free up silos for the next season’s harvest. However, after the deal, a myriad of challenges are left to resolve before exports can ramp up, therefore nothing ensures that exports will pick up in the near term.
On August 1st, the first ship loaded with 26,000 tons of corn departed from Ukraine for Lebanon, marking a resume of Ukraine grain exports. Since then, and at the time of writing, a total of 12 vessels have departed from Ukrainian ports carrying 374,800 tons of agriculture-related merchandise, which is still a fraction of the 22mn tonnes of trapped grain in the country. Ukraine anticipates the number of vessels to pick up grains will be increased to reach full capacity within the following weeks. Given the exports continue successfully, they could increase as much as 3mn tons/month in 4-6 weeks.
In order to ship a total of 22mn tonnes of grains, it is estimated that approx. 371 loadings in 40,000-69,000dwt size vessels will be needed. The vessels will cover routes from the Black Sea to North Africa, the Middle East, and potentially Europe, while their voyages are expected to last approx. 7 days. At the moment most inquiries are Handy-based due to the shallow draft of ports in the Black Sea area and the short distance that needs to be covered. Given the limited duration of the agreement, it is expected that most inquiries will be for short-period time-charters for these particular routes. If the agreement is extended and more shipments will head to Asia, primarily S. Korea and China, there will be increased demand for period charters and for bigger vessels.
Congestion is expected to increase in Ukrainian ports as they have been un-operational and un-manned since the beginning of the war and their infrastructures might have been damaged. However, at the moment the discharge rate is relatively rapid given the small number of vessels in the area. Vessels that will bear increased voyage risk will require insurance premiums resulting in higher voyage expenses. Shipowners’ biggest impediment is to secure insurance for their vessels and cargoes and to find crew to sail their ships. On the other hand, this means that freights will move upwards in order to compensate for the extra risk.
As per the latest update of Ukraine’s Ministry of Agriculture on July 31st, the country’s wheat exports have been down -53.2% y-o-y, while the market outlook for next year’s wheat crop remains bearish. Another downside factor is the quality of the grains that have been loaded in vessels for months under increased humidity and inadequate ventilation. There is a high risk that cargoes that have not been freshly loaded will be rejected by the importers if they do not meet specific requirements.
Under the current circumstances, there are several challenges lying ahead that create doubts on whether the exports could fully or at least partially recover. Given that the situation worsens around the Black Sea area and the materialized deal will be undermined, a further downside for grain trade is more likely within 2H2022. On the contrary, if the operation continues relatively smoothly, the world grain trade could see relief within 2H2022 as a result of an increase in tonne-days demand, while Ukraine could receive up to $1bn/month from its grain exports in order to fund its sowing plans.
By Chara Georgousi
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Friday, 18 November 22
REALITIES OF LOI LIABILITIES - BALTIC EXCHANGE
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
The cargo misdelivery claim in Trafigura Maritime Logistics Pte Ltd v. Clearlake Shipping Pte Ltd (Miracle Hope) [2022] E ...
Tuesday, 15 November 22
CHINA SEES RISING COAL STORAGE AMID SUPPLY PUSH - XINHUA
Coal stockpiles at China’s power plants have seen considerable increases, ensuring energy supply for the winter, the country’s energy r ...
Tuesday, 15 November 22
SEABORNE THERMAL COAL PRICES START TO EASE, BUT PROCESS IS UNEVEN - REUTERS
Prices for seaborne thermal coal have started to drop as fears of a winter energy crunch ease, but the rate of decline has varied across the differ ...
Thursday, 10 November 22
INDIA: THERMAL PLANTS HAVE ADEQUATE COAL STOCKS AT 25.6 MILLION TONNES, SAYS GOVT - IANS
The coal stock with domestic dry fuel-based power plants, as on October 31, was 25.6 million tonnes, the government said, adding that the availabil ...
Tuesday, 08 November 22
OUTLOOK ON CHINA’S WEAKENED BASIC MATERIALS SECTOR CLOUDED BY POLICY SWINGS - FITCH RATINGS
Fitch Ratings expects basic materials demand in China to improve qoq in 4Q22, driven by seasonally higher construction activity, solid infrastructu ...
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- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Planning Commission, India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
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