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Thursday, 11 August 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 On July 22nd, Ukraine signed a deal with Russia to release 22mn tons of grain from Ukraine’s 3 major ports (Yuzhny, Chornomorsk, Odesa). Such an agreement is anticipated to soften grain prices as an immediate response to the increase in global supplies. But it is also anticipated to offer relief to grain mills, in an effort to ensure limited rotting of the current harvest and rapidly free up silos for the next season’s harvest. However, after the deal, a myriad of challenges are left to resolve before exports can ramp up, therefore nothing ensures that exports will pick up in the near term.
On August 1st, the first ship loaded with 26,000 tons of corn departed from Ukraine for Lebanon, marking a resume of Ukraine grain exports. Since then, and at the time of writing, a total of 12 vessels have departed from Ukrainian ports carrying 374,800 tons of agriculture-related merchandise, which is still a fraction of the 22mn tonnes of trapped grain in the country. Ukraine anticipates the number of vessels to pick up grains will be increased to reach full capacity within the following weeks. Given the exports continue successfully, they could increase as much as 3mn tons/month in 4-6 weeks.
In order to ship a total of 22mn tonnes of grains, it is estimated that approx. 371 loadings in 40,000-69,000dwt size vessels will be needed. The vessels will cover routes from the Black Sea to North Africa, the Middle East, and potentially Europe, while their voyages are expected to last approx. 7 days. At the moment most inquiries are Handy-based due to the shallow draft of ports in the Black Sea area and the short distance that needs to be covered. Given the limited duration of the agreement, it is expected that most inquiries will be for short-period time-charters for these particular routes. If the agreement is extended and more shipments will head to Asia, primarily S. Korea and China, there will be increased demand for period charters and for bigger vessels.
Congestion is expected to increase in Ukrainian ports as they have been un-operational and un-manned since the beginning of the war and their infrastructures might have been damaged. However, at the moment the discharge rate is relatively rapid given the small number of vessels in the area. Vessels that will bear increased voyage risk will require insurance premiums resulting in higher voyage expenses. Shipowners’ biggest impediment is to secure insurance for their vessels and cargoes and to find crew to sail their ships. On the other hand, this means that freights will move upwards in order to compensate for the extra risk.
As per the latest update of Ukraine’s Ministry of Agriculture on July 31st, the country’s wheat exports have been down -53.2% y-o-y, while the market outlook for next year’s wheat crop remains bearish. Another downside factor is the quality of the grains that have been loaded in vessels for months under increased humidity and inadequate ventilation. There is a high risk that cargoes that have not been freshly loaded will be rejected by the importers if they do not meet specific requirements.
Under the current circumstances, there are several challenges lying ahead that create doubts on whether the exports could fully or at least partially recover. Given that the situation worsens around the Black Sea area and the materialized deal will be undermined, a further downside for grain trade is more likely within 2H2022. On the contrary, if the operation continues relatively smoothly, the world grain trade could see relief within 2H2022 as a result of an increase in tonne-days demand, while Ukraine could receive up to $1bn/month from its grain exports in order to fund its sowing plans.
By Chara Georgousi
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
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- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
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- India Bulls Power Limited - India
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- Planning Commission, India
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- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Parliament of New Zealand
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- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
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- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
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- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
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- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
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- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
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- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- White Energy Company Limited
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- Indian Energy Exchange, India
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- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Australian Coal Association
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
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- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Economic Council, Georgia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
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- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
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