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Thursday, 11 August 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 On July 22nd, Ukraine signed a deal with Russia to release 22mn tons of grain from Ukraine’s 3 major ports (Yuzhny, Chornomorsk, Odesa). Such an agreement is anticipated to soften grain prices as an immediate response to the increase in global supplies. But it is also anticipated to offer relief to grain mills, in an effort to ensure limited rotting of the current harvest and rapidly free up silos for the next season’s harvest. However, after the deal, a myriad of challenges are left to resolve before exports can ramp up, therefore nothing ensures that exports will pick up in the near term.
On August 1st, the first ship loaded with 26,000 tons of corn departed from Ukraine for Lebanon, marking a resume of Ukraine grain exports. Since then, and at the time of writing, a total of 12 vessels have departed from Ukrainian ports carrying 374,800 tons of agriculture-related merchandise, which is still a fraction of the 22mn tonnes of trapped grain in the country. Ukraine anticipates the number of vessels to pick up grains will be increased to reach full capacity within the following weeks. Given the exports continue successfully, they could increase as much as 3mn tons/month in 4-6 weeks.
In order to ship a total of 22mn tonnes of grains, it is estimated that approx. 371 loadings in 40,000-69,000dwt size vessels will be needed. The vessels will cover routes from the Black Sea to North Africa, the Middle East, and potentially Europe, while their voyages are expected to last approx. 7 days. At the moment most inquiries are Handy-based due to the shallow draft of ports in the Black Sea area and the short distance that needs to be covered. Given the limited duration of the agreement, it is expected that most inquiries will be for short-period time-charters for these particular routes. If the agreement is extended and more shipments will head to Asia, primarily S. Korea and China, there will be increased demand for period charters and for bigger vessels.
Congestion is expected to increase in Ukrainian ports as they have been un-operational and un-manned since the beginning of the war and their infrastructures might have been damaged. However, at the moment the discharge rate is relatively rapid given the small number of vessels in the area. Vessels that will bear increased voyage risk will require insurance premiums resulting in higher voyage expenses. Shipowners’ biggest impediment is to secure insurance for their vessels and cargoes and to find crew to sail their ships. On the other hand, this means that freights will move upwards in order to compensate for the extra risk.
As per the latest update of Ukraine’s Ministry of Agriculture on July 31st, the country’s wheat exports have been down -53.2% y-o-y, while the market outlook for next year’s wheat crop remains bearish. Another downside factor is the quality of the grains that have been loaded in vessels for months under increased humidity and inadequate ventilation. There is a high risk that cargoes that have not been freshly loaded will be rejected by the importers if they do not meet specific requirements.
Under the current circumstances, there are several challenges lying ahead that create doubts on whether the exports could fully or at least partially recover. Given that the situation worsens around the Black Sea area and the materialized deal will be undermined, a further downside for grain trade is more likely within 2H2022. On the contrary, if the operation continues relatively smoothly, the world grain trade could see relief within 2H2022 as a result of an increase in tonne-days demand, while Ukraine could receive up to $1bn/month from its grain exports in order to fund its sowing plans.
By Chara Georgousi
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Friday, 02 December 22
INDONESIAN COAL PRICE REFERENCE PLUNGE TOWARD US$ 281.48 A TON AS DEMAND DROPS WORLDWIDE
COALspot.com: The cost of coal is falling so fast that it is beginning to put real money back in the pockets of end-users.
Indonesia ...
Wednesday, 30 November 22
INDONESIA’S BUMI RESOURCES TARGETS 2023 COAL OUTPUT OF 80 MLN TONNES - REUTERS
Indonesian coal miner PT Bumi Resources Tbk BUMI.JKis eyeing a 10% increase in output to 80 million tonnes next year amid expectations for more fav ...
Wednesday, 30 November 22
TANKERS: LONGER HAULS TO SUPPORT CONTINUED STRENGTH - BIMCO
Highlights
A rebound in the dirty tanker trade has led the Baltic Exchange Dirty Index (BDTI) to increase by 64% since our last report from mid ...
Wednesday, 30 November 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
Shipping, although a conservative and innovation adverse industry, is currently in a transition period of digital transformation. According to a su ...
Tuesday, 29 November 22
INDIA TO RECEIVE FIRST LNG CARGO FROM INDONESIA’S TANGGUH LNG - REUTERS
India will receive its first cargo from Indonesia’s Tangguh liquefied natural gas (LNG) plant at the Dahej terminal on Monday, according to a ...
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- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Planning Commission, India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- White Energy Company Limited
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
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