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Thursday, 11 August 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 On July 22nd, Ukraine signed a deal with Russia to release 22mn tons of grain from Ukraine’s 3 major ports (Yuzhny, Chornomorsk, Odesa). Such an agreement is anticipated to soften grain prices as an immediate response to the increase in global supplies. But it is also anticipated to offer relief to grain mills, in an effort to ensure limited rotting of the current harvest and rapidly free up silos for the next season’s harvest. However, after the deal, a myriad of challenges are left to resolve before exports can ramp up, therefore nothing ensures that exports will pick up in the near term.
On August 1st, the first ship loaded with 26,000 tons of corn departed from Ukraine for Lebanon, marking a resume of Ukraine grain exports. Since then, and at the time of writing, a total of 12 vessels have departed from Ukrainian ports carrying 374,800 tons of agriculture-related merchandise, which is still a fraction of the 22mn tonnes of trapped grain in the country. Ukraine anticipates the number of vessels to pick up grains will be increased to reach full capacity within the following weeks. Given the exports continue successfully, they could increase as much as 3mn tons/month in 4-6 weeks.
In order to ship a total of 22mn tonnes of grains, it is estimated that approx. 371 loadings in 40,000-69,000dwt size vessels will be needed. The vessels will cover routes from the Black Sea to North Africa, the Middle East, and potentially Europe, while their voyages are expected to last approx. 7 days. At the moment most inquiries are Handy-based due to the shallow draft of ports in the Black Sea area and the short distance that needs to be covered. Given the limited duration of the agreement, it is expected that most inquiries will be for short-period time-charters for these particular routes. If the agreement is extended and more shipments will head to Asia, primarily S. Korea and China, there will be increased demand for period charters and for bigger vessels.
Congestion is expected to increase in Ukrainian ports as they have been un-operational and un-manned since the beginning of the war and their infrastructures might have been damaged. However, at the moment the discharge rate is relatively rapid given the small number of vessels in the area. Vessels that will bear increased voyage risk will require insurance premiums resulting in higher voyage expenses. Shipowners’ biggest impediment is to secure insurance for their vessels and cargoes and to find crew to sail their ships. On the other hand, this means that freights will move upwards in order to compensate for the extra risk.
As per the latest update of Ukraine’s Ministry of Agriculture on July 31st, the country’s wheat exports have been down -53.2% y-o-y, while the market outlook for next year’s wheat crop remains bearish. Another downside factor is the quality of the grains that have been loaded in vessels for months under increased humidity and inadequate ventilation. There is a high risk that cargoes that have not been freshly loaded will be rejected by the importers if they do not meet specific requirements.
Under the current circumstances, there are several challenges lying ahead that create doubts on whether the exports could fully or at least partially recover. Given that the situation worsens around the Black Sea area and the materialized deal will be undermined, a further downside for grain trade is more likely within 2H2022. On the contrary, if the operation continues relatively smoothly, the world grain trade could see relief within 2H2022 as a result of an increase in tonne-days demand, while Ukraine could receive up to $1bn/month from its grain exports in order to fund its sowing plans.
By Chara Georgousi
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Tuesday, 13 December 22
AUSTRALIA TO CAP PRICES OF COAL, GAS TO DRIVE DOWN ENERGY BILLS - REUTERS
Australia will cap coal and gas prices for a year in a bid to shave utility bills for households and businesses hit by soaring costs because of the ...
Tuesday, 13 December 22
YANCOAL AUSTRALIA TO PREPAY $459 MLN DEBT AS RECORD COAL PRICES BOOST CASHFLOWS - REUTERS
Coal miner Yancoal Australia Ltd. said on Friday it intended to prepay $459 million of its debt on or around Dec. 16, as elevated coal prices were ...
Tuesday, 13 December 22
WHY COAL LEADS THE RISE IN COMMODITIES THIS YEAR - MARKETWATCH
This year marked a resurgence for coal, often known — and loathed — by environmentalists as the dirtiest energy source, with prices mor ...
Thursday, 08 December 22
BIMCO TO REVISE WAR RISK CLAUSES
Work to revise the BIMCO War Cancellation Clause 2004, the BIMCO War Risks Clause for Time Chartering 2013 (CONWARTIME 2013) and the BIMCO War Risk ...
Thursday, 08 December 22
COAL ROYALTY PAYMENTS BOOST AUSTRALIAN STATE'S BUDGET FORECAST - REUTERS
Australia’s Queensland state on Wednesday forecast a record surplus for the current financial year, largely driven by higher royalty payments ...
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- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- PTC India Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- White Energy Company Limited
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Planning Commission, India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
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