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Thursday, 11 August 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 On July 22nd, Ukraine signed a deal with Russia to release 22mn tons of grain from Ukraine’s 3 major ports (Yuzhny, Chornomorsk, Odesa). Such an agreement is anticipated to soften grain prices as an immediate response to the increase in global supplies. But it is also anticipated to offer relief to grain mills, in an effort to ensure limited rotting of the current harvest and rapidly free up silos for the next season’s harvest. However, after the deal, a myriad of challenges are left to resolve before exports can ramp up, therefore nothing ensures that exports will pick up in the near term.
On August 1st, the first ship loaded with 26,000 tons of corn departed from Ukraine for Lebanon, marking a resume of Ukraine grain exports. Since then, and at the time of writing, a total of 12 vessels have departed from Ukrainian ports carrying 374,800 tons of agriculture-related merchandise, which is still a fraction of the 22mn tonnes of trapped grain in the country. Ukraine anticipates the number of vessels to pick up grains will be increased to reach full capacity within the following weeks. Given the exports continue successfully, they could increase as much as 3mn tons/month in 4-6 weeks.
In order to ship a total of 22mn tonnes of grains, it is estimated that approx. 371 loadings in 40,000-69,000dwt size vessels will be needed. The vessels will cover routes from the Black Sea to North Africa, the Middle East, and potentially Europe, while their voyages are expected to last approx. 7 days. At the moment most inquiries are Handy-based due to the shallow draft of ports in the Black Sea area and the short distance that needs to be covered. Given the limited duration of the agreement, it is expected that most inquiries will be for short-period time-charters for these particular routes. If the agreement is extended and more shipments will head to Asia, primarily S. Korea and China, there will be increased demand for period charters and for bigger vessels.
Congestion is expected to increase in Ukrainian ports as they have been un-operational and un-manned since the beginning of the war and their infrastructures might have been damaged. However, at the moment the discharge rate is relatively rapid given the small number of vessels in the area. Vessels that will bear increased voyage risk will require insurance premiums resulting in higher voyage expenses. Shipowners’ biggest impediment is to secure insurance for their vessels and cargoes and to find crew to sail their ships. On the other hand, this means that freights will move upwards in order to compensate for the extra risk.
As per the latest update of Ukraine’s Ministry of Agriculture on July 31st, the country’s wheat exports have been down -53.2% y-o-y, while the market outlook for next year’s wheat crop remains bearish. Another downside factor is the quality of the grains that have been loaded in vessels for months under increased humidity and inadequate ventilation. There is a high risk that cargoes that have not been freshly loaded will be rejected by the importers if they do not meet specific requirements.
Under the current circumstances, there are several challenges lying ahead that create doubts on whether the exports could fully or at least partially recover. Given that the situation worsens around the Black Sea area and the materialized deal will be undermined, a further downside for grain trade is more likely within 2H2022. On the contrary, if the operation continues relatively smoothly, the world grain trade could see relief within 2H2022 as a result of an increase in tonne-days demand, while Ukraine could receive up to $1bn/month from its grain exports in order to fund its sowing plans.
By Chara Georgousi
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Thursday, 22 December 22
RUSSIAN OIL EXPORTS CRATER BY 54% IN THE FIRST FULL WEEK OF THE EU'S EMBARGO AMID A SHORTAGE OF TANKERS WILLING TO CARRY CARGOES - BUSINESS INSIDER
Since the European Union imposed its seaborne crude sanctions, Russian oil exports have tumbled by more than half, according to data compiled by Bl ...
Thursday, 22 December 22
CHINA TIGHTENS VERIFICATION OF SHIPS’ ENERGY CONSUMPTION DATA - GARD
From 22 December 2022, ships trading to Chinese ports must record their energy consumption data in accordance with the requirements of their Ship E ...
Thursday, 22 December 22
AN OVERVIEW OF THE LNG MARKET - VESSELSVALUE
LNG values have continued to strengthen, spurred by skyrocketing earnings that have surpassed last year’s record breaking peaks. In November, ...
Thursday, 22 December 22
COKING COAL SLUMPS AS TALKS ON AUSTRALIA-CHINA TRADE RIFT LOOM - REUTERS
Chinese coking coal futures dropped more than 3 per cent on Tuesday (Dec 20), extending losses, as supply of the steelmaking input might increase i ...
Thursday, 22 December 22
COAL AND GAS PRICE CAPS MAY COMPOUND POLITICAL RISK FOR AUSTRALIAN CORPORATES - FITCH RATINGS
Australia’s introduction of temporary price caps on domestic sales of gas and coal used for electricity generation will probably have limited ...
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- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- PTC India Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- The University of Queensland
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- VISA Power Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
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