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Thursday, 11 August 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 On July 22nd, Ukraine signed a deal with Russia to release 22mn tons of grain from Ukraine’s 3 major ports (Yuzhny, Chornomorsk, Odesa). Such an agreement is anticipated to soften grain prices as an immediate response to the increase in global supplies. But it is also anticipated to offer relief to grain mills, in an effort to ensure limited rotting of the current harvest and rapidly free up silos for the next season’s harvest. However, after the deal, a myriad of challenges are left to resolve before exports can ramp up, therefore nothing ensures that exports will pick up in the near term.
On August 1st, the first ship loaded with 26,000 tons of corn departed from Ukraine for Lebanon, marking a resume of Ukraine grain exports. Since then, and at the time of writing, a total of 12 vessels have departed from Ukrainian ports carrying 374,800 tons of agriculture-related merchandise, which is still a fraction of the 22mn tonnes of trapped grain in the country. Ukraine anticipates the number of vessels to pick up grains will be increased to reach full capacity within the following weeks. Given the exports continue successfully, they could increase as much as 3mn tons/month in 4-6 weeks.
In order to ship a total of 22mn tonnes of grains, it is estimated that approx. 371 loadings in 40,000-69,000dwt size vessels will be needed. The vessels will cover routes from the Black Sea to North Africa, the Middle East, and potentially Europe, while their voyages are expected to last approx. 7 days. At the moment most inquiries are Handy-based due to the shallow draft of ports in the Black Sea area and the short distance that needs to be covered. Given the limited duration of the agreement, it is expected that most inquiries will be for short-period time-charters for these particular routes. If the agreement is extended and more shipments will head to Asia, primarily S. Korea and China, there will be increased demand for period charters and for bigger vessels.
Congestion is expected to increase in Ukrainian ports as they have been un-operational and un-manned since the beginning of the war and their infrastructures might have been damaged. However, at the moment the discharge rate is relatively rapid given the small number of vessels in the area. Vessels that will bear increased voyage risk will require insurance premiums resulting in higher voyage expenses. Shipowners’ biggest impediment is to secure insurance for their vessels and cargoes and to find crew to sail their ships. On the other hand, this means that freights will move upwards in order to compensate for the extra risk.
As per the latest update of Ukraine’s Ministry of Agriculture on July 31st, the country’s wheat exports have been down -53.2% y-o-y, while the market outlook for next year’s wheat crop remains bearish. Another downside factor is the quality of the grains that have been loaded in vessels for months under increased humidity and inadequate ventilation. There is a high risk that cargoes that have not been freshly loaded will be rejected by the importers if they do not meet specific requirements.
Under the current circumstances, there are several challenges lying ahead that create doubts on whether the exports could fully or at least partially recover. Given that the situation worsens around the Black Sea area and the materialized deal will be undermined, a further downside for grain trade is more likely within 2H2022. On the contrary, if the operation continues relatively smoothly, the world grain trade could see relief within 2H2022 as a result of an increase in tonne-days demand, while Ukraine could receive up to $1bn/month from its grain exports in order to fund its sowing plans.
By Chara Georgousi
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Sunday, 08 January 23
ELEVATED COAL PRICE A DRAG ON MARGINS OF DOMESTIC BASE METAL PLAYERS: ICRA
The increased price of coal continue to be a drag on the margin of domestic base metal players with no immediate relief in sight, rating agency ICR ...
Monday, 02 January 23
CHINA’S COAL CONSUMPTION TO PEAK BY 2035: REPORT - REUTERS
China’s primary energy consumption is likely to peak at nearly 6.03 billion tonnes of standard coal between 2030 and 2035, refining giant Chi ...
Thursday, 29 December 22
INDIA'S COAL DEMAND LIKELY TO PEAK BETWEEN 2030-2035: MINISTER - ANI
The demand for coal in India will continue and is likely to peak between 2030-2035, Union Minister of Coal, Mines, and Parliamentary Affairs Pralha ...
Thursday, 29 December 22
RIO TINTO AND PARTNERS COULD RECEIVE AS MUCH AS $450M IN GOVERNMENT COMPENSATION FOR COAL PRICE CAP - THE GUARDIAN
Compensation payments for the Gladstone power plant remain the sticking point in the federal government’s coal price cap compensation negotia ...
Wednesday, 28 December 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
The United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD) published a Global Trade Update on December 13th highlighting that global trade wou ...
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- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- White Energy Company Limited
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- The University of Queensland
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Planning Commission, India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- PTC India Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
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