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Thursday, 11 August 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 On July 22nd, Ukraine signed a deal with Russia to release 22mn tons of grain from Ukraine’s 3 major ports (Yuzhny, Chornomorsk, Odesa). Such an agreement is anticipated to soften grain prices as an immediate response to the increase in global supplies. But it is also anticipated to offer relief to grain mills, in an effort to ensure limited rotting of the current harvest and rapidly free up silos for the next season’s harvest. However, after the deal, a myriad of challenges are left to resolve before exports can ramp up, therefore nothing ensures that exports will pick up in the near term.
On August 1st, the first ship loaded with 26,000 tons of corn departed from Ukraine for Lebanon, marking a resume of Ukraine grain exports. Since then, and at the time of writing, a total of 12 vessels have departed from Ukrainian ports carrying 374,800 tons of agriculture-related merchandise, which is still a fraction of the 22mn tonnes of trapped grain in the country. Ukraine anticipates the number of vessels to pick up grains will be increased to reach full capacity within the following weeks. Given the exports continue successfully, they could increase as much as 3mn tons/month in 4-6 weeks.
In order to ship a total of 22mn tonnes of grains, it is estimated that approx. 371 loadings in 40,000-69,000dwt size vessels will be needed. The vessels will cover routes from the Black Sea to North Africa, the Middle East, and potentially Europe, while their voyages are expected to last approx. 7 days. At the moment most inquiries are Handy-based due to the shallow draft of ports in the Black Sea area and the short distance that needs to be covered. Given the limited duration of the agreement, it is expected that most inquiries will be for short-period time-charters for these particular routes. If the agreement is extended and more shipments will head to Asia, primarily S. Korea and China, there will be increased demand for period charters and for bigger vessels.
Congestion is expected to increase in Ukrainian ports as they have been un-operational and un-manned since the beginning of the war and their infrastructures might have been damaged. However, at the moment the discharge rate is relatively rapid given the small number of vessels in the area. Vessels that will bear increased voyage risk will require insurance premiums resulting in higher voyage expenses. Shipowners’ biggest impediment is to secure insurance for their vessels and cargoes and to find crew to sail their ships. On the other hand, this means that freights will move upwards in order to compensate for the extra risk.
As per the latest update of Ukraine’s Ministry of Agriculture on July 31st, the country’s wheat exports have been down -53.2% y-o-y, while the market outlook for next year’s wheat crop remains bearish. Another downside factor is the quality of the grains that have been loaded in vessels for months under increased humidity and inadequate ventilation. There is a high risk that cargoes that have not been freshly loaded will be rejected by the importers if they do not meet specific requirements.
Under the current circumstances, there are several challenges lying ahead that create doubts on whether the exports could fully or at least partially recover. Given that the situation worsens around the Black Sea area and the materialized deal will be undermined, a further downside for grain trade is more likely within 2H2022. On the contrary, if the operation continues relatively smoothly, the world grain trade could see relief within 2H2022 as a result of an increase in tonne-days demand, while Ukraine could receive up to $1bn/month from its grain exports in order to fund its sowing plans.
By Chara Georgousi
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Monday, 19 December 22
ENERGY CRISIS FUELS COAL COMEBACK IN GERMANY - REUTERS
Coal has made a comeback in Germany this year, as Europe’s largest economy turns to the dirty fuel to power it through an energy crisis.
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Thursday, 15 December 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
While observing the ship repair market very close to the end of the year, we are confident that shipyards worldwide are entering a new era. The nex ...
Tuesday, 13 December 22
STRONG COAL PRICES SUPPORT ROBUST EARNINGS AT INDONESIAN COAL MINERS - FITCH RATINGS
Fitch Ratings expects cash flow generation at Indonesian coal miners to remain strong in 2023, based on its forecast for coal prices to remain high ...
Tuesday, 13 December 22
BIMCO CII CLAUSE FINALLY RELEASED: DOES IT MAKE ANY SENSE OF CCI? - WFW
WHAT IS CII?
The new International Maritime Organisation’s (“IMO’s”) Carbon Intensity Indicator (“CII”) cer ...
Tuesday, 13 December 22
COAL BASE RAMPS UP ENERGY SUPPLY FOR WINTER NEEDS - XINHUA
Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region, China’s leading coal production base, has kicked its production into high gear to meet heating needs as col ...
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- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- The University of Queensland
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Australian Coal Association
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Minerals Council of Australia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
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