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Thursday, 11 August 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 On July 22nd, Ukraine signed a deal with Russia to release 22mn tons of grain from Ukraine’s 3 major ports (Yuzhny, Chornomorsk, Odesa). Such an agreement is anticipated to soften grain prices as an immediate response to the increase in global supplies. But it is also anticipated to offer relief to grain mills, in an effort to ensure limited rotting of the current harvest and rapidly free up silos for the next season’s harvest. However, after the deal, a myriad of challenges are left to resolve before exports can ramp up, therefore nothing ensures that exports will pick up in the near term.
On August 1st, the first ship loaded with 26,000 tons of corn departed from Ukraine for Lebanon, marking a resume of Ukraine grain exports. Since then, and at the time of writing, a total of 12 vessels have departed from Ukrainian ports carrying 374,800 tons of agriculture-related merchandise, which is still a fraction of the 22mn tonnes of trapped grain in the country. Ukraine anticipates the number of vessels to pick up grains will be increased to reach full capacity within the following weeks. Given the exports continue successfully, they could increase as much as 3mn tons/month in 4-6 weeks.
In order to ship a total of 22mn tonnes of grains, it is estimated that approx. 371 loadings in 40,000-69,000dwt size vessels will be needed. The vessels will cover routes from the Black Sea to North Africa, the Middle East, and potentially Europe, while their voyages are expected to last approx. 7 days. At the moment most inquiries are Handy-based due to the shallow draft of ports in the Black Sea area and the short distance that needs to be covered. Given the limited duration of the agreement, it is expected that most inquiries will be for short-period time-charters for these particular routes. If the agreement is extended and more shipments will head to Asia, primarily S. Korea and China, there will be increased demand for period charters and for bigger vessels.
Congestion is expected to increase in Ukrainian ports as they have been un-operational and un-manned since the beginning of the war and their infrastructures might have been damaged. However, at the moment the discharge rate is relatively rapid given the small number of vessels in the area. Vessels that will bear increased voyage risk will require insurance premiums resulting in higher voyage expenses. Shipowners’ biggest impediment is to secure insurance for their vessels and cargoes and to find crew to sail their ships. On the other hand, this means that freights will move upwards in order to compensate for the extra risk.
As per the latest update of Ukraine’s Ministry of Agriculture on July 31st, the country’s wheat exports have been down -53.2% y-o-y, while the market outlook for next year’s wheat crop remains bearish. Another downside factor is the quality of the grains that have been loaded in vessels for months under increased humidity and inadequate ventilation. There is a high risk that cargoes that have not been freshly loaded will be rejected by the importers if they do not meet specific requirements.
Under the current circumstances, there are several challenges lying ahead that create doubts on whether the exports could fully or at least partially recover. Given that the situation worsens around the Black Sea area and the materialized deal will be undermined, a further downside for grain trade is more likely within 2H2022. On the contrary, if the operation continues relatively smoothly, the world grain trade could see relief within 2H2022 as a result of an increase in tonne-days demand, while Ukraine could receive up to $1bn/month from its grain exports in order to fund its sowing plans.
By Chara Georgousi
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Wednesday, 07 December 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
China’s coal imports from January to October were 230.1m mt, a decrease of around 10.7% y-o-y (2021 totalled 323.2m mt). The question is if t ...
Wednesday, 07 December 22
INDIA'S STEEL MINISTRY SEEKS IMPORT TAX WAIVER FOR COKING COAL - SOURCES REUTERS REPORTED
India’s steel ministry has asked the finance ministry for a waiver of import tax on coking coal among a slew of raw materials, as it scramble ...
Tuesday, 06 December 22
INDIA'S COAL PRODUCTION RISES 17% IN APR-NOV PERIOD - PTI
The country’s coal production increased 17 per cent to 524.20 million tonnes in the April-November period of the ongoing fiscal.
...
Tuesday, 06 December 22
INDONESIA AIMS TO STARTS COLLECTING COAL LEVY IN Q1 2023 - MINISTER, REUTERS REPORTED
Indonesia aims to establish a coal fund agency and start collecting a coal levy in the first quarter next year, to help ensure supply security for ...
Saturday, 03 December 22
COMPLEX RUSSIAN PRICE CAP MAKES MARITIME VISIBILITY A MUST - WINDWARD
Many commentators and analysts are speculating about the potential impact the Russian seaborne oil price cap will have on organizations and entitie ...
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- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Planning Commission, India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- PTC India Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- The University of Queensland
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- White Energy Company Limited
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- MS Steel International - UAE
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
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