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Thursday, 11 August 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 On July 22nd, Ukraine signed a deal with Russia to release 22mn tons of grain from Ukraine’s 3 major ports (Yuzhny, Chornomorsk, Odesa). Such an agreement is anticipated to soften grain prices as an immediate response to the increase in global supplies. But it is also anticipated to offer relief to grain mills, in an effort to ensure limited rotting of the current harvest and rapidly free up silos for the next season’s harvest. However, after the deal, a myriad of challenges are left to resolve before exports can ramp up, therefore nothing ensures that exports will pick up in the near term.
On August 1st, the first ship loaded with 26,000 tons of corn departed from Ukraine for Lebanon, marking a resume of Ukraine grain exports. Since then, and at the time of writing, a total of 12 vessels have departed from Ukrainian ports carrying 374,800 tons of agriculture-related merchandise, which is still a fraction of the 22mn tonnes of trapped grain in the country. Ukraine anticipates the number of vessels to pick up grains will be increased to reach full capacity within the following weeks. Given the exports continue successfully, they could increase as much as 3mn tons/month in 4-6 weeks.
In order to ship a total of 22mn tonnes of grains, it is estimated that approx. 371 loadings in 40,000-69,000dwt size vessels will be needed. The vessels will cover routes from the Black Sea to North Africa, the Middle East, and potentially Europe, while their voyages are expected to last approx. 7 days. At the moment most inquiries are Handy-based due to the shallow draft of ports in the Black Sea area and the short distance that needs to be covered. Given the limited duration of the agreement, it is expected that most inquiries will be for short-period time-charters for these particular routes. If the agreement is extended and more shipments will head to Asia, primarily S. Korea and China, there will be increased demand for period charters and for bigger vessels.
Congestion is expected to increase in Ukrainian ports as they have been un-operational and un-manned since the beginning of the war and their infrastructures might have been damaged. However, at the moment the discharge rate is relatively rapid given the small number of vessels in the area. Vessels that will bear increased voyage risk will require insurance premiums resulting in higher voyage expenses. Shipowners’ biggest impediment is to secure insurance for their vessels and cargoes and to find crew to sail their ships. On the other hand, this means that freights will move upwards in order to compensate for the extra risk.
As per the latest update of Ukraine’s Ministry of Agriculture on July 31st, the country’s wheat exports have been down -53.2% y-o-y, while the market outlook for next year’s wheat crop remains bearish. Another downside factor is the quality of the grains that have been loaded in vessels for months under increased humidity and inadequate ventilation. There is a high risk that cargoes that have not been freshly loaded will be rejected by the importers if they do not meet specific requirements.
Under the current circumstances, there are several challenges lying ahead that create doubts on whether the exports could fully or at least partially recover. Given that the situation worsens around the Black Sea area and the materialized deal will be undermined, a further downside for grain trade is more likely within 2H2022. On the contrary, if the operation continues relatively smoothly, the world grain trade could see relief within 2H2022 as a result of an increase in tonne-days demand, while Ukraine could receive up to $1bn/month from its grain exports in order to fund its sowing plans.
By Chara Georgousi
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Thursday, 13 October 22
OPEC DOWNGRADES CRUDE OIL DEMAND, AS WORLD ECONOMY ENTERS SLOWDOWN
Crude Oil Price Movements
The OPEC Reference Basket (ORB) declined m-o-m by $6.58 in September, or 6.5%, to average $95.32/b. Pressure from equ ...
Wednesday, 12 October 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
Sale and Purchase activity during the first three quarters of 2022 has been remarkable.
Focusing only on Tankers and Bulkers, such v ...
Monday, 10 October 22
ENERGY TRANSITION BOOSTS GLOBAL LONG-TERM DEMAND FOR METALS - FITCH RATINGS
The energy transition will significantly increase demand for metals used in manufacturing of electric vehicles (EVs) and renewable power generation ...
Monday, 10 October 22
GLOBAL CEOS EXPECT IMPENDING RECESSION TO BE 'SHORT AND SHARP,' POLL SHOWS - CNBC
Global CEOs are anticipating a recession in the next 12 months, according to a new survey by professional services firm KPMG, which said more than ...
Thursday, 06 October 22
AUSTRALIA’S RESOURCES REVENUE TO HIT RECORD AMID UKRAINE CONFLICT - REUTERS
Australian resources and energy export earnings are forecast to jump 7% to a record A$450 billion ($290 billion) this fiscal year, bolstered by soa ...
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- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- White Energy Company Limited
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- The University of Queensland
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Planning Commission, India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
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