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Thursday, 11 August 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 On July 22nd, Ukraine signed a deal with Russia to release 22mn tons of grain from Ukraine’s 3 major ports (Yuzhny, Chornomorsk, Odesa). Such an agreement is anticipated to soften grain prices as an immediate response to the increase in global supplies. But it is also anticipated to offer relief to grain mills, in an effort to ensure limited rotting of the current harvest and rapidly free up silos for the next season’s harvest. However, after the deal, a myriad of challenges are left to resolve before exports can ramp up, therefore nothing ensures that exports will pick up in the near term.
On August 1st, the first ship loaded with 26,000 tons of corn departed from Ukraine for Lebanon, marking a resume of Ukraine grain exports. Since then, and at the time of writing, a total of 12 vessels have departed from Ukrainian ports carrying 374,800 tons of agriculture-related merchandise, which is still a fraction of the 22mn tonnes of trapped grain in the country. Ukraine anticipates the number of vessels to pick up grains will be increased to reach full capacity within the following weeks. Given the exports continue successfully, they could increase as much as 3mn tons/month in 4-6 weeks.
In order to ship a total of 22mn tonnes of grains, it is estimated that approx. 371 loadings in 40,000-69,000dwt size vessels will be needed. The vessels will cover routes from the Black Sea to North Africa, the Middle East, and potentially Europe, while their voyages are expected to last approx. 7 days. At the moment most inquiries are Handy-based due to the shallow draft of ports in the Black Sea area and the short distance that needs to be covered. Given the limited duration of the agreement, it is expected that most inquiries will be for short-period time-charters for these particular routes. If the agreement is extended and more shipments will head to Asia, primarily S. Korea and China, there will be increased demand for period charters and for bigger vessels.
Congestion is expected to increase in Ukrainian ports as they have been un-operational and un-manned since the beginning of the war and their infrastructures might have been damaged. However, at the moment the discharge rate is relatively rapid given the small number of vessels in the area. Vessels that will bear increased voyage risk will require insurance premiums resulting in higher voyage expenses. Shipowners’ biggest impediment is to secure insurance for their vessels and cargoes and to find crew to sail their ships. On the other hand, this means that freights will move upwards in order to compensate for the extra risk.
As per the latest update of Ukraine’s Ministry of Agriculture on July 31st, the country’s wheat exports have been down -53.2% y-o-y, while the market outlook for next year’s wheat crop remains bearish. Another downside factor is the quality of the grains that have been loaded in vessels for months under increased humidity and inadequate ventilation. There is a high risk that cargoes that have not been freshly loaded will be rejected by the importers if they do not meet specific requirements.
Under the current circumstances, there are several challenges lying ahead that create doubts on whether the exports could fully or at least partially recover. Given that the situation worsens around the Black Sea area and the materialized deal will be undermined, a further downside for grain trade is more likely within 2H2022. On the contrary, if the operation continues relatively smoothly, the world grain trade could see relief within 2H2022 as a result of an increase in tonne-days demand, while Ukraine could receive up to $1bn/month from its grain exports in order to fund its sowing plans.
By Chara Georgousi
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Friday, 23 September 22
CHINA DIGS DEEP TO RAISE COAL OUTPUT TO RECORD HIGH - REUTERS
China’s coal production has surged this year as the government seeks to improve energy security by reducing dependence on imports and amassin ...
Friday, 23 September 22
EUROPEAN STEEL BUYERS SEEK DIRECTION IN VOLATILE MARKET - MEPS INTERNATIONAL
Demand for steel is slow to recover, after the summer break. Mill production costs continue to increase. Steel purchasers are uncertain about the f ...
Friday, 23 September 22
BUOYANT COAL INDUSTRY SEEKS WAYS TO STAY IN THE LONG-TERM ENERGY MIX - REUTERS
There’s no doubt that the global coal industry has been a major beneficiary of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and the subsequent energy c ...
Friday, 23 September 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
In view of the forthcoming winter, Europe is trying to escape from its energy (oil & gas) dependency from Russia to ensure energy abundance eve ...
Tuesday, 20 September 22
CHINA'S DAILY COAL OUTPUT HITS 3-MONTH LOW IN AUGUST ON RAINS, COVID CURBS - REUTERS
China’s daily coal output in August slipped to a three-month low as some mines in its biggest coal mining regions reduced operations or even ...
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- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- White Energy Company Limited
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Minerals Council of Australia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
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