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Thursday, 11 August 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 On July 22nd, Ukraine signed a deal with Russia to release 22mn tons of grain from Ukraine’s 3 major ports (Yuzhny, Chornomorsk, Odesa). Such an agreement is anticipated to soften grain prices as an immediate response to the increase in global supplies. But it is also anticipated to offer relief to grain mills, in an effort to ensure limited rotting of the current harvest and rapidly free up silos for the next season’s harvest. However, after the deal, a myriad of challenges are left to resolve before exports can ramp up, therefore nothing ensures that exports will pick up in the near term.
On August 1st, the first ship loaded with 26,000 tons of corn departed from Ukraine for Lebanon, marking a resume of Ukraine grain exports. Since then, and at the time of writing, a total of 12 vessels have departed from Ukrainian ports carrying 374,800 tons of agriculture-related merchandise, which is still a fraction of the 22mn tonnes of trapped grain in the country. Ukraine anticipates the number of vessels to pick up grains will be increased to reach full capacity within the following weeks. Given the exports continue successfully, they could increase as much as 3mn tons/month in 4-6 weeks.
In order to ship a total of 22mn tonnes of grains, it is estimated that approx. 371 loadings in 40,000-69,000dwt size vessels will be needed. The vessels will cover routes from the Black Sea to North Africa, the Middle East, and potentially Europe, while their voyages are expected to last approx. 7 days. At the moment most inquiries are Handy-based due to the shallow draft of ports in the Black Sea area and the short distance that needs to be covered. Given the limited duration of the agreement, it is expected that most inquiries will be for short-period time-charters for these particular routes. If the agreement is extended and more shipments will head to Asia, primarily S. Korea and China, there will be increased demand for period charters and for bigger vessels.
Congestion is expected to increase in Ukrainian ports as they have been un-operational and un-manned since the beginning of the war and their infrastructures might have been damaged. However, at the moment the discharge rate is relatively rapid given the small number of vessels in the area. Vessels that will bear increased voyage risk will require insurance premiums resulting in higher voyage expenses. Shipowners’ biggest impediment is to secure insurance for their vessels and cargoes and to find crew to sail their ships. On the other hand, this means that freights will move upwards in order to compensate for the extra risk.
As per the latest update of Ukraine’s Ministry of Agriculture on July 31st, the country’s wheat exports have been down -53.2% y-o-y, while the market outlook for next year’s wheat crop remains bearish. Another downside factor is the quality of the grains that have been loaded in vessels for months under increased humidity and inadequate ventilation. There is a high risk that cargoes that have not been freshly loaded will be rejected by the importers if they do not meet specific requirements.
Under the current circumstances, there are several challenges lying ahead that create doubts on whether the exports could fully or at least partially recover. Given that the situation worsens around the Black Sea area and the materialized deal will be undermined, a further downside for grain trade is more likely within 2H2022. On the contrary, if the operation continues relatively smoothly, the world grain trade could see relief within 2H2022 as a result of an increase in tonne-days demand, while Ukraine could receive up to $1bn/month from its grain exports in order to fund its sowing plans.
By Chara Georgousi
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Monday, 12 September 22
COAL PRICE HIKE REMAINS DIFFICULT FOR CIL: CHAIRMAN TELLS ANALYSTS - PTI
Coal India on Thursday informed investors that increasing coal prices remains difficult in the current context when the economy is grappling with h ...
Friday, 09 September 22
GREECE WILL KEEP COAL-FIRED PLANTS RUNNING FOR LONGER AMID GAS CRISIS - REUTERS
Greece will keep seven coal-fired plants running for longer than previously planned as European countries adjust to a cut in gas flows coming from ...
Friday, 09 September 22
CHINA'S DROUGHT INTENSIFIES GLOBAL COAL SHORTAGE - REUTERS
China’s drought has sent coal prices surging as traders anticipate the lack of hydroelectric generation will force it to burn more coal to me ...
Thursday, 08 September 22
MOODY.S AFFIRMS ABM INVESTAMA'S B1 RATINGS FOLLOWING PLANNED MINORITY INVESTMENT IN COAL MINER; OUTLOOK STABLE
Moody's Investors Service has affirmed ABM Investama Tbk (P.T.)'s B1 corporate family rating (CFR), along with the B1 rating on its senior ...
Thursday, 08 September 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
While the energy markets are historically stretched, Russian flows of crude oil are closely monitored as the oil trade is ultimately realigned. Mor ...
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- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Planning Commission, India
- Australian Coal Association
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- The University of Queensland
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- PTC India Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
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