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Thursday, 11 August 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 On July 22nd, Ukraine signed a deal with Russia to release 22mn tons of grain from Ukraine’s 3 major ports (Yuzhny, Chornomorsk, Odesa). Such an agreement is anticipated to soften grain prices as an immediate response to the increase in global supplies. But it is also anticipated to offer relief to grain mills, in an effort to ensure limited rotting of the current harvest and rapidly free up silos for the next season’s harvest. However, after the deal, a myriad of challenges are left to resolve before exports can ramp up, therefore nothing ensures that exports will pick up in the near term.
On August 1st, the first ship loaded with 26,000 tons of corn departed from Ukraine for Lebanon, marking a resume of Ukraine grain exports. Since then, and at the time of writing, a total of 12 vessels have departed from Ukrainian ports carrying 374,800 tons of agriculture-related merchandise, which is still a fraction of the 22mn tonnes of trapped grain in the country. Ukraine anticipates the number of vessels to pick up grains will be increased to reach full capacity within the following weeks. Given the exports continue successfully, they could increase as much as 3mn tons/month in 4-6 weeks.
In order to ship a total of 22mn tonnes of grains, it is estimated that approx. 371 loadings in 40,000-69,000dwt size vessels will be needed. The vessels will cover routes from the Black Sea to North Africa, the Middle East, and potentially Europe, while their voyages are expected to last approx. 7 days. At the moment most inquiries are Handy-based due to the shallow draft of ports in the Black Sea area and the short distance that needs to be covered. Given the limited duration of the agreement, it is expected that most inquiries will be for short-period time-charters for these particular routes. If the agreement is extended and more shipments will head to Asia, primarily S. Korea and China, there will be increased demand for period charters and for bigger vessels.
Congestion is expected to increase in Ukrainian ports as they have been un-operational and un-manned since the beginning of the war and their infrastructures might have been damaged. However, at the moment the discharge rate is relatively rapid given the small number of vessels in the area. Vessels that will bear increased voyage risk will require insurance premiums resulting in higher voyage expenses. Shipowners’ biggest impediment is to secure insurance for their vessels and cargoes and to find crew to sail their ships. On the other hand, this means that freights will move upwards in order to compensate for the extra risk.
As per the latest update of Ukraine’s Ministry of Agriculture on July 31st, the country’s wheat exports have been down -53.2% y-o-y, while the market outlook for next year’s wheat crop remains bearish. Another downside factor is the quality of the grains that have been loaded in vessels for months under increased humidity and inadequate ventilation. There is a high risk that cargoes that have not been freshly loaded will be rejected by the importers if they do not meet specific requirements.
Under the current circumstances, there are several challenges lying ahead that create doubts on whether the exports could fully or at least partially recover. Given that the situation worsens around the Black Sea area and the materialized deal will be undermined, a further downside for grain trade is more likely within 2H2022. On the contrary, if the operation continues relatively smoothly, the world grain trade could see relief within 2H2022 as a result of an increase in tonne-days demand, while Ukraine could receive up to $1bn/month from its grain exports in order to fund its sowing plans.
By Chara Georgousi
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Sunday, 21 August 22
COAL-RICH POLAND FACES WINTER OF ENERGY DISCONTENT - DW
Poland uses 10 million tons of coal a year to heat households — a whopping 87% of all coal consumed in EU homes in 2019, according to the War ...
Saturday, 20 August 22
KOSPO TO IMPORT 240000 MT OF MIN 4400 KCAL/KG NCV STEAM COAL FOR OCTOBER;LOADING FROM RUSSIAN PORTS NOT ALLOWED
COALspot.com: Korea Southern Power Co., Ltd. (KOSPO) has issued an International tender for 240,000 MT of min 4,400kcal/kg to max. 4,999 kcal/kg NC ...
Wednesday, 17 August 22
INDIAN COMPANIES SWAPPING DOLLAR FOR ASIAN CURRENCIES TO BUY RUSSIAN COAL - REUTERS
Indian companies are using Asian currencies more often to pay for Russian coal imports, according to customs documents and industry sources, avoidi ...
Wednesday, 17 August 22
LNG: MAJOR INVESTMENT AND EXPANSION PHASE, DOUBLING OF LIQUEFACTION CAPACITY BY 2028 PROJECTED - CLARKSONS
Clarksons Research have released the latest version of their long standing annual review, LNG Trade & Transport, on to Shipping Intelligence Ne ...
Wednesday, 17 August 22
UNAFFORDABLE LNG PRICES UNDERMINE RAPID DEMAND GROWTH FORECASTS IN KEY ASIAN MARKETS - IEEFA
Sustained high prices may accelerate downward pressures on Asian LNG demand, clouding long-term industry outlooks
The global liquefi ...
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- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- The University of Queensland
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Planning Commission, India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Economic Council, Georgia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
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