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Thursday, 11 August 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 On July 22nd, Ukraine signed a deal with Russia to release 22mn tons of grain from Ukraine’s 3 major ports (Yuzhny, Chornomorsk, Odesa). Such an agreement is anticipated to soften grain prices as an immediate response to the increase in global supplies. But it is also anticipated to offer relief to grain mills, in an effort to ensure limited rotting of the current harvest and rapidly free up silos for the next season’s harvest. However, after the deal, a myriad of challenges are left to resolve before exports can ramp up, therefore nothing ensures that exports will pick up in the near term.
On August 1st, the first ship loaded with 26,000 tons of corn departed from Ukraine for Lebanon, marking a resume of Ukraine grain exports. Since then, and at the time of writing, a total of 12 vessels have departed from Ukrainian ports carrying 374,800 tons of agriculture-related merchandise, which is still a fraction of the 22mn tonnes of trapped grain in the country. Ukraine anticipates the number of vessels to pick up grains will be increased to reach full capacity within the following weeks. Given the exports continue successfully, they could increase as much as 3mn tons/month in 4-6 weeks.
In order to ship a total of 22mn tonnes of grains, it is estimated that approx. 371 loadings in 40,000-69,000dwt size vessels will be needed. The vessels will cover routes from the Black Sea to North Africa, the Middle East, and potentially Europe, while their voyages are expected to last approx. 7 days. At the moment most inquiries are Handy-based due to the shallow draft of ports in the Black Sea area and the short distance that needs to be covered. Given the limited duration of the agreement, it is expected that most inquiries will be for short-period time-charters for these particular routes. If the agreement is extended and more shipments will head to Asia, primarily S. Korea and China, there will be increased demand for period charters and for bigger vessels.
Congestion is expected to increase in Ukrainian ports as they have been un-operational and un-manned since the beginning of the war and their infrastructures might have been damaged. However, at the moment the discharge rate is relatively rapid given the small number of vessels in the area. Vessels that will bear increased voyage risk will require insurance premiums resulting in higher voyage expenses. Shipowners’ biggest impediment is to secure insurance for their vessels and cargoes and to find crew to sail their ships. On the other hand, this means that freights will move upwards in order to compensate for the extra risk.
As per the latest update of Ukraine’s Ministry of Agriculture on July 31st, the country’s wheat exports have been down -53.2% y-o-y, while the market outlook for next year’s wheat crop remains bearish. Another downside factor is the quality of the grains that have been loaded in vessels for months under increased humidity and inadequate ventilation. There is a high risk that cargoes that have not been freshly loaded will be rejected by the importers if they do not meet specific requirements.
Under the current circumstances, there are several challenges lying ahead that create doubts on whether the exports could fully or at least partially recover. Given that the situation worsens around the Black Sea area and the materialized deal will be undermined, a further downside for grain trade is more likely within 2H2022. On the contrary, if the operation continues relatively smoothly, the world grain trade could see relief within 2H2022 as a result of an increase in tonne-days demand, while Ukraine could receive up to $1bn/month from its grain exports in order to fund its sowing plans.
By Chara Georgousi
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Sunday, 21 August 22
COAL-RICH POLAND FACES WINTER OF ENERGY DISCONTENT - DW
Poland uses 10 million tons of coal a year to heat households — a whopping 87% of all coal consumed in EU homes in 2019, according to the War ...
Saturday, 20 August 22
KOSPO TO IMPORT 240000 MT OF MIN 4400 KCAL/KG NCV STEAM COAL FOR OCTOBER;LOADING FROM RUSSIAN PORTS NOT ALLOWED
COALspot.com: Korea Southern Power Co., Ltd. (KOSPO) has issued an International tender for 240,000 MT of min 4,400kcal/kg to max. 4,999 kcal/kg NC ...
Wednesday, 17 August 22
INDIAN COMPANIES SWAPPING DOLLAR FOR ASIAN CURRENCIES TO BUY RUSSIAN COAL - REUTERS
Indian companies are using Asian currencies more often to pay for Russian coal imports, according to customs documents and industry sources, avoidi ...
Wednesday, 17 August 22
LNG: MAJOR INVESTMENT AND EXPANSION PHASE, DOUBLING OF LIQUEFACTION CAPACITY BY 2028 PROJECTED - CLARKSONS
Clarksons Research have released the latest version of their long standing annual review, LNG Trade & Transport, on to Shipping Intelligence Ne ...
Wednesday, 17 August 22
UNAFFORDABLE LNG PRICES UNDERMINE RAPID DEMAND GROWTH FORECASTS IN KEY ASIAN MARKETS - IEEFA
Sustained high prices may accelerate downward pressures on Asian LNG demand, clouding long-term industry outlooks
The global liquefi ...
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- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- PTC India Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Australian Coal Association
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Planning Commission, India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
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