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Thursday, 11 August 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 On July 22nd, Ukraine signed a deal with Russia to release 22mn tons of grain from Ukraine’s 3 major ports (Yuzhny, Chornomorsk, Odesa). Such an agreement is anticipated to soften grain prices as an immediate response to the increase in global supplies. But it is also anticipated to offer relief to grain mills, in an effort to ensure limited rotting of the current harvest and rapidly free up silos for the next season’s harvest. However, after the deal, a myriad of challenges are left to resolve before exports can ramp up, therefore nothing ensures that exports will pick up in the near term.
On August 1st, the first ship loaded with 26,000 tons of corn departed from Ukraine for Lebanon, marking a resume of Ukraine grain exports. Since then, and at the time of writing, a total of 12 vessels have departed from Ukrainian ports carrying 374,800 tons of agriculture-related merchandise, which is still a fraction of the 22mn tonnes of trapped grain in the country. Ukraine anticipates the number of vessels to pick up grains will be increased to reach full capacity within the following weeks. Given the exports continue successfully, they could increase as much as 3mn tons/month in 4-6 weeks.
In order to ship a total of 22mn tonnes of grains, it is estimated that approx. 371 loadings in 40,000-69,000dwt size vessels will be needed. The vessels will cover routes from the Black Sea to North Africa, the Middle East, and potentially Europe, while their voyages are expected to last approx. 7 days. At the moment most inquiries are Handy-based due to the shallow draft of ports in the Black Sea area and the short distance that needs to be covered. Given the limited duration of the agreement, it is expected that most inquiries will be for short-period time-charters for these particular routes. If the agreement is extended and more shipments will head to Asia, primarily S. Korea and China, there will be increased demand for period charters and for bigger vessels.
Congestion is expected to increase in Ukrainian ports as they have been un-operational and un-manned since the beginning of the war and their infrastructures might have been damaged. However, at the moment the discharge rate is relatively rapid given the small number of vessels in the area. Vessels that will bear increased voyage risk will require insurance premiums resulting in higher voyage expenses. Shipowners’ biggest impediment is to secure insurance for their vessels and cargoes and to find crew to sail their ships. On the other hand, this means that freights will move upwards in order to compensate for the extra risk.
As per the latest update of Ukraine’s Ministry of Agriculture on July 31st, the country’s wheat exports have been down -53.2% y-o-y, while the market outlook for next year’s wheat crop remains bearish. Another downside factor is the quality of the grains that have been loaded in vessels for months under increased humidity and inadequate ventilation. There is a high risk that cargoes that have not been freshly loaded will be rejected by the importers if they do not meet specific requirements.
Under the current circumstances, there are several challenges lying ahead that create doubts on whether the exports could fully or at least partially recover. Given that the situation worsens around the Black Sea area and the materialized deal will be undermined, a further downside for grain trade is more likely within 2H2022. On the contrary, if the operation continues relatively smoothly, the world grain trade could see relief within 2H2022 as a result of an increase in tonne-days demand, while Ukraine could receive up to $1bn/month from its grain exports in order to fund its sowing plans.
By Chara Georgousi
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Friday, 29 July 22
GLOBAL COAL DEMAND IS SET TO RETURN TO ITS ALL-TIME HIGH IN 2022 - IEA
The world’s consumption of coal is set to rise slightly in 2022, taking it back to the record level it reached nearly a decade ago, according ...
Thursday, 28 July 22
CREW FAMILIARISATION IS CRITICAL WHEN TAKING OVER A VESSEL - WEST P&I CLUB
Knowledge to Elevate
When a vessel changes ownership and/or manager, it can take some considerable time before the new crew and mana ...
Thursday, 28 July 22
RETURN OF COAL A THREAT TO EUROPEAN COMPANIES' ESG RATINGS - REUTERS
European companies turning to coal as an alternative to Russian gas face a hit to their environmental, social and governance ratings, leaving them ...
Wednesday, 27 July 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
Amid the upcoming ban on Russian coal from the EU, which will be in full effect on August 10th, EU nations have been accelerating their coal import ...
Tuesday, 26 July 22
CAP RUSSIA'S OIL PRICE NOW - PROJECT SYNDICATE
Though the price of oil has declined in recent weeks, it is still through the roof, filtering through to gasoline prices, and causing economic and ...
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- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- White Energy Company Limited
- PTC India Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- MS Steel International - UAE
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- The University of Queensland
- Planning Commission, India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
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