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Thursday, 11 August 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 On July 22nd, Ukraine signed a deal with Russia to release 22mn tons of grain from Ukraine’s 3 major ports (Yuzhny, Chornomorsk, Odesa). Such an agreement is anticipated to soften grain prices as an immediate response to the increase in global supplies. But it is also anticipated to offer relief to grain mills, in an effort to ensure limited rotting of the current harvest and rapidly free up silos for the next season’s harvest. However, after the deal, a myriad of challenges are left to resolve before exports can ramp up, therefore nothing ensures that exports will pick up in the near term.
On August 1st, the first ship loaded with 26,000 tons of corn departed from Ukraine for Lebanon, marking a resume of Ukraine grain exports. Since then, and at the time of writing, a total of 12 vessels have departed from Ukrainian ports carrying 374,800 tons of agriculture-related merchandise, which is still a fraction of the 22mn tonnes of trapped grain in the country. Ukraine anticipates the number of vessels to pick up grains will be increased to reach full capacity within the following weeks. Given the exports continue successfully, they could increase as much as 3mn tons/month in 4-6 weeks.
In order to ship a total of 22mn tonnes of grains, it is estimated that approx. 371 loadings in 40,000-69,000dwt size vessels will be needed. The vessels will cover routes from the Black Sea to North Africa, the Middle East, and potentially Europe, while their voyages are expected to last approx. 7 days. At the moment most inquiries are Handy-based due to the shallow draft of ports in the Black Sea area and the short distance that needs to be covered. Given the limited duration of the agreement, it is expected that most inquiries will be for short-period time-charters for these particular routes. If the agreement is extended and more shipments will head to Asia, primarily S. Korea and China, there will be increased demand for period charters and for bigger vessels.
Congestion is expected to increase in Ukrainian ports as they have been un-operational and un-manned since the beginning of the war and their infrastructures might have been damaged. However, at the moment the discharge rate is relatively rapid given the small number of vessels in the area. Vessels that will bear increased voyage risk will require insurance premiums resulting in higher voyage expenses. Shipowners’ biggest impediment is to secure insurance for their vessels and cargoes and to find crew to sail their ships. On the other hand, this means that freights will move upwards in order to compensate for the extra risk.
As per the latest update of Ukraine’s Ministry of Agriculture on July 31st, the country’s wheat exports have been down -53.2% y-o-y, while the market outlook for next year’s wheat crop remains bearish. Another downside factor is the quality of the grains that have been loaded in vessels for months under increased humidity and inadequate ventilation. There is a high risk that cargoes that have not been freshly loaded will be rejected by the importers if they do not meet specific requirements.
Under the current circumstances, there are several challenges lying ahead that create doubts on whether the exports could fully or at least partially recover. Given that the situation worsens around the Black Sea area and the materialized deal will be undermined, a further downside for grain trade is more likely within 2H2022. On the contrary, if the operation continues relatively smoothly, the world grain trade could see relief within 2H2022 as a result of an increase in tonne-days demand, while Ukraine could receive up to $1bn/month from its grain exports in order to fund its sowing plans.
By Chara Georgousi
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Friday, 29 July 22
GLOBAL COAL DEMAND IS SET TO RETURN TO ITS ALL-TIME HIGH IN 2022 - IEA
The world’s consumption of coal is set to rise slightly in 2022, taking it back to the record level it reached nearly a decade ago, according ...
Thursday, 28 July 22
CREW FAMILIARISATION IS CRITICAL WHEN TAKING OVER A VESSEL - WEST P&I CLUB
Knowledge to Elevate
When a vessel changes ownership and/or manager, it can take some considerable time before the new crew and mana ...
Thursday, 28 July 22
RETURN OF COAL A THREAT TO EUROPEAN COMPANIES' ESG RATINGS - REUTERS
European companies turning to coal as an alternative to Russian gas face a hit to their environmental, social and governance ratings, leaving them ...
Wednesday, 27 July 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
Amid the upcoming ban on Russian coal from the EU, which will be in full effect on August 10th, EU nations have been accelerating their coal import ...
Tuesday, 26 July 22
CAP RUSSIA'S OIL PRICE NOW - PROJECT SYNDICATE
Though the price of oil has declined in recent weeks, it is still through the roof, filtering through to gasoline prices, and causing economic and ...
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- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- The University of Queensland
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- PTC India Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
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